This is the executive summary from a new report, America’s Emerging Housing Crisis, published byNational Community Renaissance, and authored by Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox. Download the report and the supplement report below.
From the earliest settlement of the country, Americans have looked at their homes and apartments as critical elements of their own aspirations for a better life. In good times, when construction is strong, the opportunities for better, more spacious and congenial housing—whether for buyers or renters—tends to increase. But in harsher conditions, when there has been less new construction, people have been forced to accept overcrowded, overpriced and less desirable accommodations.
Today, more than any time, arguably, since the Great Depression, the prospects for improved housing outcomes are dimming for both the American middle and working classes. Not only is ownership dropping to twenty-year lows, there is a growing gap between the amount of new housing being built and the growth of demand.
Our still-youthful demographics are catching up with us. After a recession generated drought, household formation is again on the rise, notes a recent study by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. In some markets, there isn’t an adequate supply of affordable housing for the working and middle classes. Overall, according to the research firm Zelman and Associates, the country is building barely one-third the number needed to meet the growth in households. Overall inventories of homes for sale are at the lowest level in eight years.
The groups most likely to be hurt by the shortfall in housing include young families, the poor and renters. These groups include a disproportionate share of minorities, who are more likely to have lower incomes than the population in general. This situation is particularly dire in those parts of the country, such as California, that have imposed strong restrictions on home construction. California’s elaborate regulatory framework and high fees imposed on both single- and multi-family `housing have made much of the state prohibitively expensive. Not surprisingly, the state leads the nation in people who` spend above 30 percent, as well as above 50 percent, of their income on rent.
Sadly, the nascent recovery in housing could make this situation even more dire. California housing prices are already climbing far faster than the national average, despite little in the way of income growth. This situation could also affect the market for residential housing in other parts of the country, where supply and demand are increasingly out of whack.
Ultimately, we need to develop a sense of urgency about the growing problem of providing adequate shelter. As a people we have done this many times — with the Homestead Act, and again, after the Second World War, with the creation of affordable “start-up” middle- and working class housing in places like Levittown (Long Island), Lakewood (Los Angeles), the Woodlands (Houston) and smaller subdivisions, as well as large scale cooperative apartment development in places like New York. Government policy should look at opportunities to create housing attractive to young families, which includes some intelligent planning around open space, parks and schools. It is important to ensure that a sufficient supply of affordable housing is allowed throughout metropolitan areas, for all income groups.
Nothing speaks to the nature of the American future more than housing. If we fail to adequately house the current and future generations, we will be shortchanging our people, and creating the basis for growing impoverishment and poor social outcomes across the country.
[Originally published at New Geography]
Gary Becker (1930-2014), part of the vaunted Chicago School of economics of the late 20th Century, brought the paramount insight of economics to the entire spectrum of human behavior, including areas previously considered parts of sociology, psychology, criminology and education.
From his first great insight into racial discrimination, through subsequent insights into schooling, the family, crime, addictive behaviors and even suicide, Becker re-unified the social sciences, with economics as the King, mathematics as the Queen and statistics as the Jack. Much indeed was gained, but something too was lost.
The paramount insight of economics is that humans are rational, weighing cost and benefit in making decisions. This is not to say that humans are completely rational. On this point, I could go Chicago School and say that for most purposes it is useful to assume that humans are rational. But, instead, I will say that the great majority of humans are rational when due allowance is made for the cost, in real time, of acquiring and analyzing information.
In the traditional ordering of the social sciences, economics focused on decision-making in the marketplace where cost and benefit are relatively easy to quantify. Sociology, in contrast, focused on decision-making – if you wanted to use that term – in non-market settings, where cost and benefit are relatively difficult to quantify, where reciprocity unsupported by legal obligation is involved, and therefore where emotional ties, trust and loyalty are involved.
Game Theory might seem to describe situations where the decisions of those participating in a game are based on expectations of reciprocity. But, social institutions such as families, churches, charities and even business organizations and nation-states, by developing emotional ties, affect the probability of reciprocity and, so, can foster greater cooperation.
Becker’s imperialism consisted of interjecting the economic insight of rational decision-making into non-market settings. For example, criminal behavior. People commit crime, he said, because the expected benefit exceeds the expected cost. Thus, when a person’s prospect of finding a job is low, that person is more likely to consider going into the “occupation” of thief. Conversely, if society wants to deter crime, among its options are to increase the likelihood of convicting thieves and to increase the penalties for those who are convicted.
Becker’s imperialism also consisted of requiring that theories of human behavior be subject to test. Thus, statistical analysis became de rigueur throughout the social sciences. Only, statistical analysis has been discovered to be rife with difficulties. Rape statistics, for example. More reporting of rape might reflect increased confidence in law enforcement, rather than increased incidence of rape. Long prison sentences might lower crime only because more of the relatively few criminals among us are removed from the population, rather than because more would-be criminals are deterred from crime. And, the correlation between the death penalty and the rate of murder may be more due to low-murder rate jurisdictions ending the death penalty than by any deterrent effect of a death penalty, what we call reverse-causation.
Putting aside the problem of statistical analysis, what has been lost in the translation of human behavior into mathematics is the evolutionary characteristic of social institutions. For Becker, the institutional framework in which individuals make their decisions is a datum entering his models. But, in free societies, social institutions evolve. These social institutions include customs and the law, in addition to the family, the church and so forth. In a free society, these develop so as to better enable people to be successful by promoting what we come to recognize as virtuous behavior. Things like prudence, integrity, tolerance and compassion.
But, in a socialistic society, the nation-state increasingly atomizes us, destroying social institutions. Whether intended or not, the family, the church, and private charity are displaced by the state, and customs are coarsened. Initially, appeals for support of an expanded nation-state might be made on the basis of the bourgeois virtues of the formerly free society, but eventually the realities of socialism require usefulness to the nation-state.
As important as was Becker’s application of the economic paradigm of rational decision-making to all human behavior, and the requirement that theories of human behavior be subject to empirical analysis, it is even more important that we reverse the rise of the nation-state and the destruction of our social institutions.
The siren song of independence and national self-determination has sounded once again across Europe. It is a song that holds echoes of a century ago, when the internal force of nationalism convulsed the European empires into world war. Yet, while the song remains the same, the tune has changed.
One hundred years ago, many of the great countries of Europe were patchworks of cultures, ethnicities, and national identities. The most vulnerable of these states was the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It was so vulnerable because of its gross economic mismanagement and its denial of any political say from nationalist movements, a policy that left many groups resentful. It is thus no surprise that the spark that ignited World War I was lit by Serbian nationalists in Austro-Hungary.
The war tore Austro-Hungary apart. When the conflict ended, the country was divided into many smaller states, most of which were formed along ethno-nationalist lines. While the political divisions created by the war were soon convulsed anew in the Second World War, the idea that nations should be allowed to self-determine was firmly established in the European, particularly Western European, mindset.
That right of self-determination is now being tested across Europe. In Spain and Italy, regions are moving toward political separation from their central governments. However, the reasons are somewhat different than they were in the last century. While the impetus then was a desire for political freedom, today’s nationalists are more concerned about economics.
Economics is certainly the main driver of the independence movements in Spain and Italy.
Catalonia has long had a strong cultural identity unique from the rest of Spain. Separatist parties have frequently had great influence in the regional parliament, and cultural elements, such as teaching in the Catalan language, are strongly supported. Yet the separatists have also found it hard to build sufficient support to declare full independence from Spain.
Since the global financial crisis and recession, however, things have begun to change in Catalonia. As one of the richest regions in all of Spain, Catalans have come to feel as if they are subsidizing the profligacy and irresponsibility of less prosperous regions. This resentment might have been containable during the decades of economic growth after the fall of the Franco regime in the 1970s, but in the wake of a massive debt and housing crisis, it has bubbled to the surface.
Today, 55% of Catalans support full independence, and a far larger majority supports holding a referendum on the place of Catalonia in Spain. In 2013, the Catalan parliament set a date to hold a referendum on independence for November 2014.
The Spanish government has not responded well to the threat of secession. The national parliament and courts have rejected the referendum as unconstitutional.
Despite the opposition of the central government, the separatist government of Catalonia has declared its decisions will not be made by the Spanish authorities. Now most Spain-watchers think the regional parliament will call an election to act as a proxy for an independence vote. If the separatist parties are returned to power, the march to independence may become unstoppable.
Venice has always been independent-minded. An independent republic for over a thousand years, Venice is a relatively recent addition to the also relatively young unified Italy. Rolled into Italy by conquest, the current state of things does not sit well with many Venetians.
The level of discontent only became clear in March 2014 when an unofficial referendum on Venetian independence was held by separatist activists. Independent sentiments were always high, as much as 65% in favor according to some polls, but no one anticipated the result of the referendum. Fully 89% voted in favor of secession from Italy.
The shocking degree of pro-independence sentiment has sparked a full-fledged movement to gain political independence. Activists are buoyant about their prospects and look forward to leaving the sclerotic Italian central government behind.
Like Catalonia, Venice is much wealthier than the majority of the mother country. Venetian taxpayers pay billions of dollars in net transfers to the central government. They have finally become sick of it and are ready for a change.
The Ties that Bind
The lesson the separatists of Catalonia and Venice offer collectively is that the ties that bind nations are not unbreakable, especially when they are confronted with economic strains. Whether these regions gain their independence, greater autonomy, or return to the status quo, the very fact that the question is being tested at all shows that government profligacy and economic distribution can only go on for so long. Eventually those who face the economic drain will revolt against the injustice.
Under such circumstances, maybe a peaceful secession is the best solution one can hope for.
Common Core is appropriately named. It is indeed “common”, and not the exceptional education system its promoters promised. Digging into its core we find problems with its design, philosophy, tactics by which it was implemented, and specific ideology which is liberally peppered throughout the various subjects.
One might speculate how this unproven program was sold to the governors of 45 states, without their having actually seen any of the Common Core curriculum. Much like the Affordable Care Act, Common Core was approved based on lofty promises and without a shred of proof it was superior to the program it replaced.
We do know states accepting Common Core were “forgiven” their contract with “No Child Left Behind”, which was appealing, because many school districts had not met their commitments to that contract and were eager to be excused from their obligations. Also, there was a financial “carrot” via “No Child Left Behind” federal money.
Big money speaks
Bill Gates and other big business tycoons saw an opportunity to make millions from the new system and donated huge amounts to help launch and promote it. However, that was only part of Gates reason and not his real passion. When interviewed on national television, all Gates offered as to why he supported the new education system was the tired standard Common Core talking point that American students needed to compete globally. Hey, our country is a World leader; we already are competitive. What Gates failed to mention is his close association with the United Nations and that he bought into their one-world globalist agenda, which is directly tied to U.N. Agenda 21, Chapter 36 under Education, Public Awareness, and Training”. Common Core is the surreptitious takeover of public education by a handful of liberals, with Bill Gates prominent among them.
Would governors have approved Common Core if they had known beforehand that it embraces the “three E’s of Agenda 21″ which will become evident in an article to follow when discussing Common Core standards for Math, Language Arts, History, and Science: 1) Equality, meaning Common good, not individual rights; 2) Economy, meaning redistribution of wealth; and Environment, meaning animals have equal rights or even more rights than humans. That certainly does not sound like the philosophy under which our nation has prospered for centuries
Government control over state violates Constitution
“The philosophy of the classroom of one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next” is a wise statement attributed to Abraham Lincoln. Our wise forefathers knew the potential problems of a federal government or any “elitist” group dictating what every school child learns in classrooms across America, which is why they gave the responsibility of education to each individual state. There is an inherent danger in one small body of people deciding what every student in America will be learning in our schools.
How can any reasonable person not be concerned when Common Core violates the very intent of our Constitution and forefathers warnings? What happens if Common Core proves its critics right and test scores in all 45 states are lower, not higher? We know states, such as New York, that have been using Common Core for a couple of years, have experienced plummeting test scores, unhappy children, and furious parents. A large N.Y. teachers union blamed Common Core for creating education chaos in their state. How do students get back those wasted years? How will our country redeem the loss?
Little impact on student achievement
A study published last month by the Brookings Institution concluded that the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) will have “little to no impact on student achievement.” Two statistical analysis of states with math mandates like Common Core and those with mandates unlike Common Core found that states whose standards were less like Common Core performed better on national assessments. As to states never adopting the standards (Alaska, Minnesota, Nebraska, Texas and Virginia), the difference in test scores were not noticeable in comparison to those states considered strong implementers of Common Core standards.
Author and journalist Dean Kalahar writes:
“Common Core . . . may look delicious, but before you take a bite out of the apple, it might be a good idea to know a razor is inside; furthermore, the foundational philosophy of Common Core is to create students ready for social action so they can force a social-justice agenda. Is that really what American citizens want for their children’s future? Have we not learned from the mistakes of other once prosperous countries that declined due to their experimenting with Socialism?”
Critical thinking emphasized, even if age inappropriate
A prominent claim of Common Core is that students are being taught to be critical thinkers. However, minds of children develop at different paces. Educators have understood that for centuries, which is why curriculum in the past was designed with an age appropriate concept that is lacking in the new program.
The inconvenient truth is our children are being used as guinea pigs. Teachers have not been given appropriate instructions for teaching the new system, and rather than wait until it was thoroughly tested and teachers provided the necessary tools they needed, the experimental program was inflicted on an entire generation of American students, the majority of whom may suffer for many years.
A major concern is the reduced emphasis on memorization skills. Students now have to connect the dots and apply critical thinking in what experts are calling higher-order thinking necessary for preparing students for life after high school. The concern is how much the curriculum actually leads students into forming the author’s pre-planned conclusion. Are they being carefully guided into a desired thought pattern? Evidence to support those parental concerns will be discussed in a subsequent article.
Remembering the plot of a short story is no longer good enough for children in the elementary grades. Today’s students are being asked to apply critical thinking, even in Kindergarten and 1st Grade. Consider the American classic “Charlotte’s Web”. Common Core requires First and Second grade students to understand and explain how the characters see the “world differently.” Why does Fern see Wilbur in a different way than the Narrator does? Young students are asked to explain situations beyond their scope of understanding.
Consider a Common Core school assignment which asked children in the 6th grade to remove and replace two of the first ten amendments of the Constitution. The assignment stated that the Bill of Rights is outdated and may not remain in its current form any longer. This would be an impossible task for a 6th grader having no prior training as to how to amend the Constitution, further leading them to believe all that is needed to change the Constitution is a special committee. In fact, why are young students being given the idea there needs to be changes in our Constitution in the first place? We were taught that America’s Constitution was a remarkable document which provided us with the most amazing government in the history of our mankind? Curriculum should be planting seeds of national pride, not seeds suggesting a need for change.
Moral teachings questioned and compromised
Comprehensive sexuality education often goes unchallenged, that is, until people discover what it teachers. A Kansas father was shocked after discovering his 13-year-old daughter’s health curriculum – part of her middle school’s approved curriculum — included a poster on which were references to vaginal intercourse, anal sex, and touching each other’s genitals, only later to discover that it was in line with what other schools around the country are also teaching. Reporters dubbed this program “x-rated.” Chicago, the third largest school district in the nation, is leaving no stone unturned. Within two years sex education will be coming to Chicago kindergartners as part of an overhaul of the Chicago public schools sexual health program.
Parents have been expressing concern that part of the critical thinking project is designed for young children to question the morals and teachings they have received at home and church. One example occurred during a student independent reading time where kids were required to read a book that is “just right”, one girl’s choice was the Bible, but a teacher promptly took the Bible away. Parents encourage their children to respect and obey their teachers; what does an action like that suggest to a classroom of vulnerable minds? It feels a lot more like what one would expect in Russia, China, or Afghanistan, not the United States of America. Why, what or who would encourage that extreme behavior from a teacher?
Dr. Terry Bratton testified before an Alabama State Education Committee that “the new education measure has a specific and radical agenda.” He accused Common Core of promoting an acceptance of homosexuality, alternate lifestyles, radical feminism, abortion, illegal immigration, and the redistribution of wealth. That certainly sounds like a liberal’s dream platform. He went on say that“Alabama places a priority on family and Christian values. We don’t want our kids taught to be anti-Christian and anti-Catholic and anti-America,” said Bratton. “We don’t want our kids to lose their innocence, beginning in preschool and kindergarten, by being taught that homosexuality is okay and should be experienced at an early age.” I think he speaks for most American parents!
Bratton also railed against what he called ideas of “social justice” woven into the Standards. He said such teachings are “contrary to traditional American notions of justice in the United States Constitution” and lamented that kids were told “America is an unjust and oppressive society that should be changed.” It is unclear if Dr. Bratton provided proof of all his claims. However, we do know that there is a strong connection between the authors of Common Core and extreme radical education groups whose goal is to teach social justice to students in our schools. This website explains that connection in more detail.
What does history tell us? (Need to find the link, Bonnie.)
Historian David Barton of Wallbuilders has also made some important points worth considering. He suggested we look back in history and consider Americas’ first teaching principles. The primary goal was to “teach religion, morality and knowledge”. The second goal was the role of faith in teaching important thinking skills. The historian noted that religion was so important that new states being admitted to the union were required to embrace “religion, morality and knowledge,” which is why these elements made it into many states’ constitutions.
Barton blamed the 1960s Supreme Court decision for changes that stripped religion out of schools and morality out of society. Soon after that decision, other laws were amended or enacted which allowed for more sexually implicit media opportunities. STDS, underage pregnancies, and violence skyrocketed. The unfortunate “cause and effect” of that specific court decision is obvious and remains evident today. We are all reminded that elections have serious consequences that reverberate through society for decades, causing us to more fully appreciate the importance of an educated voter. While morality is best taught at home, to be more effective, it should be reinforced at school and throughout every other avenue of learning opportunities. Common Core is another step down in our nation’s declining moral state.
You know something is really wrong, when a comedian can no longer laugh or joke about an issue. Consider Louis C.K., who is also a father, and whose children have been adversely affected by Common Core. Check out his story in the New York Daily News.
In conclusion, there is little doubt in our minds that Common Core was developed by a determined group of liberals in accordance with a United Nations education agenda. No wonder our state governors were not given any facts, examples of curriculum, or proof that this new education system matched their expectations. But now that the facts are known, where is the massive outcry to stop this radical new education program? Oh, its out there in most every state and gaining momentum. But there needs to be an even louder and stronger opposition. Will you dedicate some of your time to be a part of that essential movement to stop this liberal agenda? Contact your state representatives and educate them on the facts, and ask for their help in closing the door to Common Core.
[Originally published at Illinois Review]
My Father was born in 1901 and was too young for World War One and too old to serve in World War Two. A gentle, quiet man, he would have been a terrible soldier. My older brother, however, was inducted in the U.S. Army and served during the Korean conflict. In the 1960s I served during a period of peace despite Cold War tensions.
In 1973, the U.S. ended military conscription, opting for an all-volunteer force. Those that chose to serve found themselves in combat in Afghanistan and Iraq. Earlier there were some minor engagements such as Panama in 1989. It was 9/11 that changed everything.
The thing about wars is that, if a nation wants to invade another one, all the laws and treaties mean nothing. One of the most useless international organizations, the United Nations, has a long record of not deterring all manner of wars, large and small, past and present. Then, too, wars are usually preceded by lies the aggressor puts forth to justify the action and much of what occurs is protected by a body of lies. The winner gets to write the history.
The last century had wars that killed millions, many of whom were civilians. A new generation is witnessing a Syrian war whose casualties now number 170,000. Two million Syrians are now refugees; a potential threat to the stability of Lebanon and Jordon. Both sides of the conflict have perpetrated horrors, but the use of poison gas by President Assad, a major crime against humanity, has not resulted in any loss of his power. Russia stepped in to give him cover. His other ally is Iran. Ukraine is likely to split between East and West.
The conflicts of the current century could escalate into even more massive loss of lives because nuclear weapons and poison gas have the capability of killing more people than the bombs of the last century.
Significantly, it took two atomic bombs to convince the Japanese leaders to surrender, but not until thousands died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The good news is that no atomic bombs have been used since. The bad news is that there a crazies like the Supreme Leader of Iran whose Islamic fanaticism cannot be counted upon to preclude his use of a nuclear weapon against Israel. Or us.
What is curious, foolish, and displays a huge ignorance of history is the way President Obama and his minions have been reducing America’s military. It has been American power that kept the Cold War with the former Soviet Union from turning into a hot war and it was that power that was instrumental in causing others to avoid military confrontations with us. Congress has to set aside the sequestration limits that affect our military strength and get busy rebuilding our Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard. It should do so tomorrow!
The generation that served in World War Two and in the Korean conflict is no longer represented by those serving in Congress. Older members have passed away or retired. The present Congress—particularly its Democratic Party members—are some of the dumbest and most duplicitous politicians to have ever served there.
Like the President, they do not hesitate to lie and to spin whatever occurs. In a nation almost evenly divided politically, it will take a shift by the moderates and independents in the center to transfer complete political power in Congress to the Republican Party. Then we have to hope the GOP will more strongly embrace its principles to undo the damage done by the two elections of Obama and thwart further damage in his remaining two years in office.
The newest generations of voters and those who have been around awhile have been living through a period in which they have been ill-served by a Congress that spent and borrowed too much. Congress did the same during the Great Depression through which my parents lived. It prolonged it from 1929 to 1941 when we entered WWII. One can only hope that those graduating from college with big loans and no job prospects will vote to put a stop to that. Joining them will be the Baby Boomers, many of whom also cannot find work or cannot retire.
We are living through our own Great Depression for the same reasons Franklin D. Roosevelt’s solutions did not work. It is the private sector, not the government that determines the health and growth of the economy. In our case, we have been a major economic power, number one since 1872. On August 5, 2011, the nation’s top credit rating was downgraded. The lesson from that event was lost on too many people.
That too many do not learn from history or are simply ignorant of it explains a lot about our present times.
No discussion of our present times would be complete without a look at one of the greatest legislative catastrophes, Obamacare, ever imposed. It will likely prove to be the final nail in the Democratic Party coffin for a while. It is a classic example of the liberal desire to control the most intimate aspects of our lives, our health and the care it requires, combined with the insane need to fashion legislation so complex that it cannot work. Worse, it will likely kill off large numbers of its alleged beneficiaries, particularly the old; denied or delayed access to nearby hospitals, their personal physicians, et cetera.
Obamacare is doomed. It will be repealed. A return of healthcare to the private sector will do what no amount of government ever can. It is fundamentally unconstitutional to require people to purchase something they do not want.
America may be at a significant turning point. Having indulged every government program to their near extinction—Social Security and Medicare are closing in on insolvency—we may return to more self-reliance, fiscal prudence, and less reliance on a government grown too large to do anything well.
It depends on when you were born whether you will live to see this occur. I likely will not.
[Originally published at Warning Signs]
The net neutrality movement is positioning to influence the FCC, Congress, and candidates in the mid-term election cycle, to support their version of net neutrality — i.e. FCC reclassification of broadband Internet service as a telephone common carrier service.
It is instructive to look back at what happened in the last mid-term election cycle — in both the 2010 election, and in 2009-2010 Congress — when the net neutrality movement last tried this.
The 2010 Election:
In the 2010 mid-term election cycle, this same PCCC got 95 congressional candidates to sign a pledge: “I believe in protecting net neutrality – the First Amendment of the Internet…” Tellingly, all 95 candidates pledging PCCC support for Title II net neutrality — lost.
That’s a 0-95 electoral record for the PCCC Title II net neutrality position.
The 2009-2010 Congress:
It is also instructive to look back at the bi-partisan majority of Congress that opposed the FCC’s 2010 consideration of reclassifying broadband Internet service as a telephone common carrier service.
In formal letters to the FCC, Members of Congress opposed Title II reclassification by a 6-1 margin (299-49).
Per national Journal reporting, a bipartisan majority of Congress 56% (299 of 535 members)wrote in opposition to Title II reclassification of broadband. For example see the: House Democrat letter, House Republican letter, & Senate letter. The FCC has all the relevant letters in their own archives.
A small minority of Congress 9% (49 of 535 members) wrote in support of Title II reclassification of broadband.
As much as the net neutrality movement tries to create the perception that they enjoy broad political support beyond their email lists of activist supporters, it is instructive to see how real politicians in the real world decided on this issue when in Congress and in congressional elections.
Even in the politics of perception, facts are an important reality check.
[Originally published at Precursor Blog]
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A week ago, I was scrolling through Buzzfeed hoping to take the latest quiz or find a shockingly specific, but relevant list to post on Facebook. Instead, I came across one of the most interesting articles I have read in a while.
McKay Coppins wrote an in depth piece titled “Paul Ryan’s Inner City Education.” As I started reading the article, I was prepared to become defensive and argumentative, assuming it was just another effort to slam the Republican Party. Surprisingly, the article praised Paul Ryan and the work he is doing. This piece has the potential to impact conservatives, the Republican Party, and the future of our welfare system.
With Ryan leading the way, conservatives are addressing a topic often avoided: welfare and the American poor. These leaders continue to prove that the system of handouts and dependency needs to change. Ryan is developing his own proposal, but with a level of compassion and empathy that is surprising for any policy. By making an effort to actually understand the devastating conditions in some American cities, Ryan approaches welfare in a way that few politicians (Democrat or Republican) ever do.
He includes the voice of those people actually a part of our welfare system—a voice so often ignored. Congress repeatedly makes decisions without consulting the American’s who are directly affected. How can we keep reforming education without the help of teachers, healthcare without consulting doctors, and welfare without including actual poor people? Paul Ryan is a privileged, elite politician along with most of D.C., but unlike his colleagues, he is finally recognizing it.
Most importantly, Ryan brought up a tough conversation. He is confronting major institutional problems that bring about questions of racism, classism, and sexism in America. Like any politician, he has to tread carefully. He has and will continue to make mistakes and the American public should always hold him accountable for those. That being said, he is trying to address issues that most members of Congress avoid at all costs. To that, we should be thankful.
I don’t think Paul Ryan has the ability to solve America’s greatest problems, but I do think he started a productive conversation. He has the potential to pressure the Republican Party to defend its platforms and produce real welfare policies that can change lives. He can also push the debate and make the Democratic Party propose reforms to a system that was established 50 years ago.
Paul Ryan is neither a prophet nor genius. To some he is not even a well-intentioned politician. He is, however, starting a conversation that is long overdue.
Aside from whether you think the proposed Comcast – Time Warner Cable merger ultimately should be approved or not, it’s hard to suggest that Comcast’s announcement that it will divest 3.9 million subscribers does not advance the company’s pro-merger case by alleviating claimed competitive concerns. Without getting into the complexities of the proposed three-party subscriber divestiture transactions involving Comcast, TWC, and Charter Communications, the end result is that, as Comcast promised when the merger was announced in February, Comcast’s total number of subscribers, post-merger, will be less than 30% of the total number of U. S. cable subscribers.
Of course, “30%” is the figure that represented the FCC’s subscriber ownership cap that twice was held unlawful by the D.C. Circuit. Each time, first in 2001 and then in 2009, the appeals court ruled that the agency could not justify such an arbitrarily low national ownership limit in light of the increasing competition in the video marketplace. Since the cap was last invalidated in 2009, there is no doubt the video marketplace – with satellite operators, telephone and fiber companies, and wireless firms all vying for customers — has only become more competitive.
By all rights, you might think – or at least you would have good reason to think – that Comcast’s announcement concerning the planned subscriber divestitures to Charter would ease the concerns of those that claim the merger would give Comcast too much market power. After all, not only will the subscriber divestitures bring Comcast below the now defunct 30% ownership cap, they will also materially strengthen Charter’s own market position as the second largest cable operator.
You might think so. But you would be wrong.
According to the April 29 edition of TR Daily, here is what Free Press’s Matt Wood had to say in response to the subscriber divestiture announcement: “Cable barons have always been great at dividing up the country and refusing to compete with each other. Transforming three giant companies into two behemoths gives no comfort to content providers or consumers.”
The emphasis is mine – in case you might have missed the point that Mr. Wood considers the subject cable companies to be large. I do puzzle a bit over whether – had I been in the position of trying to make Mr. Wood’s argument – I might have rearranged the second sentence to read: “Transforming three behemoth companies into two giants gives no comfort to content providers or consumers.”
Are giants more easily divided into behemoths, or vice versa?
No matter, really. Because this is all semantics, and semantics has nothing at all to do with the merits of the question.
Anyone who knows anything about the realities of constructing and operating increasingly costly high-speed broadband networks knows that it takes scale – that is, large companies – to raise the enormous amount of private capital needed to undertake the job. Indeed, common estimates of capital investments by broadband operators are in the range of $60 – $70 billion per year for the past several years.
But I don’t want to argue the merits of the proposed merger here. And, after all, the review process is just getting underway. It just strikes me as a bit out of sorts to use the occasion of Comcast’s announcement of its promised subscriber divestitures as another opportunity to engage in overheated anti-merger rhetoric. It would seem more fitting to acknowledge that such subscriber divestitures at least lessen professed concerns about concentration.
Again, I don’t want to engage in a full discussion concerning the merits of the proposed merger here. But it’s worth pointing out that, in the midst of all his rhetoric concerning barons, giants, and behemoths, Mr. Wood says that the cable operators have “refused” to compete with each other. Regardless whether “refused” is the proper word, the reality is that the cable operators – in this case Comcast and TWC – do not presently compete directly against each other, so the proposed merger will not lessen competition, or reduce the number of competitors in the “cable” marketplace, one bit. In any event, Charter looks to emerge as a stronger cable competitor as a result of the proposed subscriber divestitures.
The more important reality is that the cable operators do compete in the broader broadband marketplace – the market in which they seek to provide customers with high-speed data, video, and voice services – against facilities-based telephone companies, wireless companies, fiber providers like Google, and satellite operators. It is the competitive impact of the proposed combination relative to this broad broadband marketplace that should be the primary focus of the merger review.
For now, I am happy to give Comcast credit for advancing its case early in the review process by announcing the details of its subscriber divestiture plan. You should have no problem with giving such credit as well.
[Originally published by the Free State Foundation]
Gary Becker, a leading proponent of free markets and limited government, passed away over the weekend. He was 83.
Prof. Becker was one of the main figures in the Chicago School of Economics, a group of scholars based mainly at the University of Chicago who helped economics avoid a take-over and take-down by the left that would have been similar to what occurred to nearly every other academic discipline beginning in the 1960s. He vigorously defended economics and its tools, in particular methodological individualism, from those who misrepresented it. He demonstrated how economics explains social phenomena seemingly far removed from marketplaces.
He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 and another rather less prestigious prize, the Heartland Liberty Prize, in 2002. He graciously accepted our modest award and delighted the audience of our anniversary benefit dinner that year with a long and thoughtful acceptance speech. He was a long-time policy advisor to The Heartland Institute, participated in the peer review of our publications, and frequently spoke at our events.
A great teacher as well as thinker, he leaves behind thousands of former students who understand how to think like economists, a skill that immunizes whose who have it against all manner of wrong thinking on public policy.
He will be missed.
Philadelphia was America’s first large city and served as the nation’s capital for all but nine months between the inauguration of George Washington as the first president in 1789 and the capital transfer to Washington, DC in 1800.
Before the early 1900s, the United States Census Bureau had not developed a metropolitan area (labor market area) concept. However, the website peakbagger.com has attempted to define earlier metropolitan areas based on concepts similar to those used today. In the case of Philadelphia, this is important because it was somewhat unique in having virtually adjacent, highly populated suburbs that make comparisons of municipal populations (the only population data available) misleading.
The Nation’s Largest City
According to municipal population data, New York had become the largest municipality in the United States by the time of the first census, in 1790. Philadelphia was ranked second. However, a list of the top 24 urban places in 1790 shows two Philadelphia suburbs, Northern Liberties and the Southwark district. When peakbagger.com includes these suburbs, Philadelphia rises as the largest city (metropolitan area) in the nation in the 1790 and 1800 censuses. The New York metropolitan area is shown as rising to number one in 1810, a position it is held for 200 years and may last for much longer in light of the much slower growth rate recently for Los Angeles.
Soon the Nation’s 9th Largest City?
Those were the glory days. In the years since 1800, Philadelphia has been falling in population rank. The Philadelphia metropolitan area was displaced first by Chicago in 1900, according to the metropolitan district estimates of the US Census Bureau. In 1940, Philadelphia was demoted to fourth place by Los Angeles. Philadelphia held fourth position until 2006, when Dallas-Fort Worth raced past it. Then just a few years later (2010), Houston knocked Philadelphia down to 6th place. The downward trend could accelerate rather quickly. At current growth rates (2010 to 2013), Philadelphia would be passed by Washington and Miami by the time of the 2020 census. The Atlanta metropolitan area would also pass Philadelphia if its population growth rate is restored to pre-Great Recession rates. Philadelphia should start the next decade as either the 9th or 10th largest metropolitan area in the nation.
Population Growth in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area
The Philadelphia metropolitan area is unusual in being divided between four states. The core city of Philadelphia is located in Pennsylvania. Directly across the Delaware River are the suburban counties of New Jersey. Wilmington, formerly the largest metropolitan area in Delaware has been incorporated into the Philadelphia metropolitan area (New Castle County). Maryland’s Cecil County is also included in the metropolitan area.
All of Philadelphia’s population growth since 1950 has been in the suburbs. In that year, the city of Philadelphia peaked at 2,072,000 residents. This was a healthy increase from the 1,930,000 in the 1940 census. However, this represented a decline from 1,951,000 in 1930 and shadowed massive population losses that would follow after 1950 (Cleveland and St. Louis also lost population between 1930 and 1940).
By 2000, the city’s population had dropped 27 percent to 1,518,000. This could prove its modern low, as the population recovered to 1,526,000 in the 2010 census and was estimated by the Census Bureau at 1,553,000 in 2013.
The suburbs of the metropolitan area as presently defined added nearly 2.6 million residents between 1950 and 2013. However, the metropolitan area only grew by 2.1 million residents because of the more than 500,000 loss in the city of Philadelphia. The inner ring suburbs, counties abutting Philadelphia County in Pennsylvania and New Jersey gained 1.8 million residents, while the outer suburbs gained nearly 800,000 residents (Figure 1).
Philadelphia has continued to lose domestic migrants to other areas of the country. Between 2010 and 2013, approximately 50,000 net domestic migrants left the Philadelphia area. Of this, 22,000 left the city of Philadelphia and 28,000 left the suburbs. The rate of domestic migration loss was 0.8 percent in the metropolitan area, 1.4 percent in the city of Philadelphia and 0.6 percent in the suburbs (Figure 2).
Within the metropolitan area, the commercial primacy of the core city of Philadelphia also has been reduced. Philadelphia has long been known for having one of the largest central business districts in the United States. The most recent census tract data from the CTPP indicates that Philadelphia has the sixth largest business district in the United States, with approximately 240,000 jobs. This represents only 8.7 percent of the metropolitan area employment, a figure slightly above the 8.4 percent average of the 52 major metropolitan areas (those with more than 1 million residents).
The development of Philadelphia’s “center city” business district may have been stunted by city regulations that prohibited buildings to exceed the height of City Hall, topped off by a statue of city founder William Penn. At nine floors and approximately 550 feet (165 meters), City Hall was briefly the tallest building in the world in the early 1900s. City Hall remained a dominant feature of the skyline until the late 1980s, when One Liberty Place, with its 61 floors rose to 945 feet (290 meters). There are now 8 buildings taller than City Hall. Construction will soon begin on a new office and hotel tower , which at 1,120 foot tall (340 meters), 59 floor building would be the tallest building in the United States outside New York and Chicago (and taller, by 20 feet than Wilshire Grand now under construction in Los Angeles).
I have described the city of Philadelphia as a “transit legacy city,” which along with New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, and Washington account for 55 percent of all the transit commuting destinations in the United States. This is nearly 10 times the share of jobs that are located in these six municipalities (not metropolitan areas).
Philadelphia, like the other five other transit legacy cities has an extensive urban rail system. Philadelphia has commuter rail lines extending outward to suburban locations in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. There are also two Metro lines (subway lines) and electric trolley lines. This transit system delivers 44 percent of commuters to “center city” jobs. This represents more than 40 percent of the transit commuting in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Transit’s market share to work locations outside downtown is relatively small at 6.0 percent.
The nation’s first long intercity tollway (the Pennsylvania Turnpike) passes through the Philadelphia metropolitan area. This route, in connection with the New Jersey Turnpike, the Ohio Turnpike, the Indiana Toll Road and the Chicago Skyway provided freeway equivalent access between the New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Chicago metropolitan areas in the middle 1950s, before the interstate highway system was authorized.
Philadelphia’s stagnant population growth is typical for the Northeast, which continues to lose domestic migrants to the rest of the nation. It seems likely to continue. In the two decades following 2020, Phoenix and Riverside-San Bernardino are projected by the US Conference of Mayors to pass Philadelphia. This would push Philadelphia down to 12th place, compared to the 4th ranking it had at the beginning of the 21st century. Quite a ride down for the City of Brotherly Love, and its surrounding region.
[Originally published at New Geography]
April seems to be the month in which the Supreme Court devotes itself to decisions that have no basis in real science and can do maximum damage to the economy. Invariably, the cases are brought against the Environmental Protection Agency and are decided in its favor.
In April 2007, the Court decided that carbon dioxide, the second most essential gas for all life on the planet was “a pollutant”, the definition the EPA had applied to it in order to regulate it. Now comes word that the Court had concluded that the EPA may regulate power-plant emissions that blow across state lines as per a 2011 regulation, the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Not content having put nearly 150 or more coal-fired power plants out of commission, the Court’s rule now gives them the authority to do the same thing to about a thousand power plants in the eastern and western regions of the U.S. that will have to adopt new pollution controls or reduce operations.
In effect, the Court has just agreed to a regulation that represents a major increase in the cost of electricity in 28 states deemed to be polluting the air in those around them. The EPA’s claims that this will save lives they attribute to the alleged pollution is as bogus as all the rest of their claims, the purpose of which is to undermine the nation’s economy in every way it can.
James M. Taylor, the Heartland Institute’s Senior Fellow for Environmental Policy said of Tuesday’s decision that “It is a shame that the U.S. Supreme Court continues to empower EPA to issue nonsensical interpretations of statutes with the primary goal of amassing more money and power.”
Every day the press is filled with reports of environmental groups suing to ensure that no new providers of electricity can be built. The Environmental Protection Agency has instituted all manner of regulations intended to shut down coal-fired plants and they are based on the total lie that carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” are causing the Earth to warm. The science cited is entirely without merit and the Earth is cooling, not warming, and has been for the past seventeen years.
As winters grow colder, it is putting a tremendous demand on the nation’s electrical grid. In a recent commentary, Steve Gorham, the author of “The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania”, quoted Philip Moeller, Commissioner of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “the experience of this past winter indicates that the power grid is now already at the limit.”
“EPA policies,” said Gorham, “such as the Mercury and Air Toxics rule and the Section 316 Cooling Water Rule, are forcing the closure of many coal-fired plants, which provided 39 percent of U.S. electricity last year. American Electric Power, a provider of about ten percent of the electricity to eastern states, will close almost one quarter of the firm’s coal-fired generating plants in the next fourteen months. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of the power scheduled for closure was needed to meet electricity demand in January. Not all of this capacity has replacement plans.”
Before Obama was elected, coal-fired plants provided fifty percent (50%) of the nation’s electricity.
What is the Obama administration’s response to this? It is pouring billions into the wind and solar energy sector that provides barely one percent of all the electricity used in the nation and can never begin to replace traditional plants.
In an April 25 letter from the American Energy Alliance, joined by thirty other organizations, to the House Ways and Means Committee, opposition to the Wind Production Tax Credit was expressed: “The PTC has been a failure for taxpayers and ratepayers. In exchange for tens of billions of dollars in handouts to wind producers, the states with the highest wind production have seen their electricity rates increase nearly five times faster than the national average. In fact, states with at least 7 percent wind power have seen their electricity rates increase at an average of 17.4 percent over the last 5 years compared to an increase of only 3.5 percent for the U.S. as a whole” Why, indeed, are taxpayers being required to sustain providers of wind power that would not be able to stay in business otherwise?
In addition to the fact that you cannot manufacture anything without the use of electricity, a deliberate effort is being made to ensure that vast sections of the nation will not be able to receive electricity to warm homes and businesses in the winter and cool them in the summer. Simply put, people will die for lack of the warmth and coolness needed, not from the phony pollution the EPA cites.
This is the heart of an environmental agenda that views the human population as “a cancer” that needs to be vastly reduced. This agenda is directed from the United Nations and its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that falsely claims that humans have a vast impact on the climate. They do not. Human activity barely, if at all, affects the climate. What does? The Sun! Add in factors that include the Earth’s oceans and volcanic activity, and it should be obvious that everyone is being targeted for extinction.
In an article, “The EPA’s Science Problem”, Arnold Ahlert, noted in early April that “In a stunning admission, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Gina McCarthy revealed to House Science, Space and Technology Committee chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) that the agency neither possesses, nor can produce, all the scientific data used to justify the rules and regulations they have imposed on Americans via the Clean Air Act. In short, science has been trumped by the radical environmental agenda.”
The Obama administration has done everything in its power to restrict and slow down access and use of America’s huge energy reserves, enough to ensure all the electrical power we will need for hundreds of years to come. The same policy applies to transportation’s petroleum needs. Oil and gas production on federal lands is down 40% compared to ten years ago.
According to the Institute for Energy Research notes that “North America has enough oil to fuel every passenger car in the U.S. for 430 years, enough natural gas to provide the U.S. with electricity for 575 years, and enough coal to provide electricity for about 500 years.” And that’s based on known reserves. They are, however, of little use if the Obama administration continues its efforts to restrict access to them.
In an August 2013 Washington Times commentary, Ben Wolfgang warned that the EPA, the Energy Department, and other agencies’ “working group” quietly raised “their estimated social coast of carbon from $21 per ton of emissions to $35 per ton”, noting that “The dramatic increase greatly alters cost-benefit analyses offered by the EPA when floating rules, allowing the agency to claim that billions of dollars will be saved over a period of decades as a result of proposed limits on power plant emissions, tougher fuel economy standards and other steps.”
The “social cost” is a complete invention, a fiction without any basis in fact. It is a device to further restrict access and use of all fuel sources.
Americans had better wake up to the fact that their government—the Obama administration—is doing everything in its power to cut off the provision of electrical power and access to transportation fuel that it can. And the Democrats in Congress, particularly Harry Reid the Senate Majority Leader, is doing everything to advance this agenda by blocking any legislation generated in the House to counter this agenda.
In November, the midterm elections offer an opportunity to elect enough Republicans to secure control of the Senate and increase its strength in the House.
Let me end with the good news. Despite what the enemies of energy are doing, the energy sector—coal, oil, and natural gas—in the decade ahead is going to grow, going to generate many new jobs, and is going to help dig us out of the huge government debt that too much borrowing and spending has generated.
[Originally published at Warning Signs]
A recent article by Paul Rosenberg in Salon contends that Paul Ryan, the Republican congressman from Wisconsin and erstwhile running mate of Mitt Romney, exhibits many of the hallmarks of a psychopath. Rosenberg claims that Ryan is “arrogant, manipulative, deceitful, and remorseless.” Whether Ryan is guilty of any or all of these sins or not, they seem to fit the bill of another prominent figure in Washington, DC: Barack Obama. Is the president a psychopath?
The president certainly has shown arrogant tendencies. In the days after his first inauguration he spurned the Republicans and tried to transform the healthcare industry from the White House. Heck, he didn’t even ask for all that much input from the congressional leadership of his own party!
Obama’s arrogant behavior hardly ended in 2009. In his last State of the Union, the president proudly declared that he had “a pen and a phone” and that he would go over the head of the Congress whenever it got in his way. If that isn’t arrogance, I don’t know what is!
Barack Obama has also proven to be a capable manipulator. He has a firmer control over his media image than most politicians in recent memory. As an article in Politico describes, “President Barack Obama is a master at limiting, shaping and manipulating media coverage of himself and his White House.”
The president has likewise become known for deceit. We can hardly forget his promise that, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”
For remorselessness we need go no further than that same promise. When confronted with his lie, the president tried to get out of it by saying, “What we said was you can keep it if it hasn’t changed since the law passed.” Apart from that second statement being a lie in itself, it shows a clear lack of remorse for his shameless misleading of the American people.
Does any of this prove Barack Obama is a psychopath? Rosenberg answers this question himself when he admits that “it’s impossible to clinically diagnose someone from a distance.” Yet Rosenberg is perfectly confident to assert in the very same breath that he believes, “a good case can be made that Ryan has exhibited classic signs of psychopathic traits.” Well, the same, if not a better, case can be made that Barack Obama has exhibited those same classic signs.
But there’s another name for a person who obfuscates issues, goes back on promises and positions, and behaves opportunistically and manipulatively: a politician. What Rosenberg describes isn’t psychopathy, it’s politics in action. All calling such people psychopaths accomplishes is giving one more dirty name to an already dirty business.
The problem Rosenberg suffers from is not uncommon among the torchbearers of the fire-breathing political left: he believes that the people who disagree with his political views are essentially, to use some of his own words, “racists” and “con artists.” He sees evil intention where there is, in fact, just honest disagreement of opinion.
Perhaps Rosenberg should ask real questions, rather than resort to name-calling. Who knows, people might even start to take him seriously.
On April 29, renowned climate scientist, Heartland Institute policy advisor, and external reviewer of the IPCC Madhav Khandekar appeared on “The Infectious Myth” show on the Progressive Radio Network. “The infectious Myth” focuses on addressing medical and scientific issues for which “the simple story we are told” is in fact untrue. Dr. Khandekar seeks to do just that for the issue of man-made climate change.
Dr. Khandekar discussed the findings of his decades-long research program into the effects of CO2 emissions on global climate and temperature. According to that research, the sun, not humans, is the primary driver of climate change:
“I think there was no change in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 during the Little Ice Age. So quite possibly, and quite definitely as most solar scientists feel, it has something to do with the low sun [activity] at the time, what is known as the Maunder Minimum.”
According to Dr. Khandekar, the world may in fact be moving in the coming decades toward another Little Ice Age thanks to an approaching decline in solar activity.
Dr. Khandekar acknowledges some amount of increased temperatures, but this he says is very limited and has largely been beneficial to humans:
“The small warming we have experienced is beneficial to world humanity. It has helped increase grain yields, especially in the developing world of South Asia and South America, as well as Africa.”
The evidence surrounding climate change and global warming remains hotly debated in scientific circles, despite the efforts of some to quash the discussion as violating a “consensus.” But scientists like Dr. Khandekar continue to fight for attention for their alternative views. The fact he was invited to speak on the Progressive News Network might well suggest that their calls for attention are starting to be heeded.
Heartland Institute Research Fellow Joy Pullmann told Fox News viewers on Tuesday why Common Core is a terrible idea and must be defeated state by state. Her opponent for the April 29 debate was Michael Brickman of the Thomas B. Fordham Foundation — who did his best, but Joy definitely got the better of him. Brickman spent a lot of time swinging and missing at Heartland and Joy instead of making a positive argument for his side.
Last year, President Obama announced that he would create a plan to measure colleges based on access, affordability, and student outcome. On Wednesday, Education Secretary Arne Duncan appeared before a Senate subcommittee to discuss the education budget. Mr. Duncan states the initiative will move forward with or without the requested 10 million dollars, although the money would be beneficial.
Ignoring that the administration is requesting 10 million dollars they do not need, Congress should not fund the college rating plan because it will not fix the problem of college affordability. A recent study done by the American Council on Education states the President’s plan is “well-intentioned but poorly devised.” The rating plan is intended to help low-income students, but they will likely be the most ill-served. Obama’s ratings are expected to be based off of data that will misrepresent community colleges and four-year comprehensive institutions. The efforts of institutions that largely serve low-income students will be ignored and students will have access to misleading information.
More so, college rankings do little good for institutions of higher education. Although the Obama administration has gone through exhaustive efforts to differentiate ranks and ratings, they are both numbers universities can manipulate. Over the past three years, I have watched my institution manufacture numbers and tout statistics in order to climb one rank in U.S. News and World Report. As my school brags about admission rates, diversity, and test scores, the students still experience a lack of commitment and investment by the university. The numbers look good, but students have reaped little benefit from manipulated numbers and a U.S. News and World Report ranking of 12 as opposed to 13. It is only a matter of time before universities find a way to manipulate their affordability, access, and outcome to help themselves and not the students they allegedly serve.
The rating plan also ignores that students, especially low-income, don’t actually care about college ratings/rankings. Low-income students are more likely to choose colleges close to home or based on financial aid packages. We need to be directly helping low income students access higher education—not giving money to institutions that achieve a good rank (based on inaccurate data) and hoping they will put the federal money towards improving affordability. The rating plan does not address the root of the actual problem we face.
Congress should not give the Department of Education the 10 million dollars it may or may not need. Obama’s college rating plan will not help low-income students, but instead, perpetuate universities to obsess over rates and rankings. College affordability is an amazingly important issue that greatly affects students. We need to change, but Obama’s plan is not the place to start.
After the global warming-battling Edwardsport coal gasification power plant used more power than it generated during the September-to-November time-frame, earlier this month information filed with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission showed the Duke Energy facility operated at less than 1 percent of capacity in February.
As Duke wants to recover $1.5 million in costs related to the plant, the state office that advocates for its customers – the Office of the Utility Consumer Counselor – wants IURC to more closely scrutinize why Edwardsport’s operation has been such a miserable failure. The much-delayed and fought-over plant had a $1.4 billion cost overrun and as a result is adding an average 16 percent increase to Hoosier State customers’ electric bills.
“The ratepayers of Duke Energy should not be mandated to bear the risks and most of the costs of this boondoggle,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of Citizens Action Coalition, to the Indianapolis Star. Olson’s organization has been a longtime critic of Duke Energy and the Edwardsport project specifically.
Duke has argued that it would need 15 months for the plant to become fully operational. According to the Indianapolis Business Journal, after the three-month blunder late last year, power production “slowed to a crawl” in January due to mechanical problems. The company claimed it moved up planned routine maintenance to February, which extended its period of diminished activity.
“It’s a large, complex project, and it has taken time to work out technical issues,” said Duke spokeswoman Angeline Protogere to the IBJ.
For the customers there is a huge difference between attaching the cost of Edwardsport’s “issues” to its initial construction costs vs. charging for ongoing maintenance. A settlement limited the costs of the build-up of the plant for customers to $2.6 billion, while Duke’s shareholders are responsible for $900 million. But now that Edwardsport is officially “online,” critics fear that repairs and maintenance that should be charged against the original design of the plant, will instead be added as new costs for customers under ongoing upkeep.
Those representing the grassroots of Indiana don’t appear to want to cut Duke any slack. Olson has been unrelenting, and in early 2012 the Office of Utility Consumer Counselor sharply criticized the utility as “a company that, through arrogance or incompetence, has unnecessarily cost ratepayers millions of dollars and has set back the public’s trust in our regulatory process.” An OUCC official testified, “There appears to be a lack of responsibility or accountability on the part of those causing these multimillion-dollar cost overruns.”
Another ugly aspect of Edwardsport/Indiana appears to be drawing to an end. As the saga played out over who would be responsible for cost overruns, David Hardy – the chairman of the IUCC appointed by then-Gov. Mitch Daniels – was revealed to have been meeting with Duke secretly to discuss problems at the power plant. Daniels fired Hardy after it was also disclosed that he knew that an IURC administrative lawyer was discussing a job with Duke while he participated in cases regarding Edwardsport. Hardy was indicted in 2011, but last year a judge ruled his actions no longer amounted to a crime, and yesterday the state Court of Appeals confirmed his decision despite the fact that they applied a law to Hardy’s situation that wasn’t passed until a year after his actions,according to the Star.
The track record for holding Duke Energy and government officials accountable for carelessness, ethics breaches and outright performance failures is not inspiring – especially in Indiana. The same Court of Appeals dumped the bulk of the Edwardsport costs also on its blameless customers. Meanwhile government know-nothings and former Duke CEOJames Rogers pushed for an ill-conceived project all for the purpose of reducing life-giving carbon dioxide, which is blamed for global warming.
Undoubtedly such folly would not have happened – or at least have been tolerated – in a truly competitive free market. Instead we have a monopolistic industry that thrives as much on crony favoritism from government as it does from the actual sales of its product.
[Originally published at National Legal and Policy Center]
The global energy outlook has changed radically in just six years. President Obama was elected in 2008 by voters who believed we were running out of oil and gas, that climate change needed to be halted, and that renewables were the energy source of the near future.
But an unexpected transformation of energy markets and politics may instead make 2014 the year of peak renewables.
In December of 2007, former Vice President Al Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize for work on man-made climate change, leading an international crusade to halt global warming. In June, 2008 after securing a majority of primary delegates, candidate Barack Obama stated, “…this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal…” Climate activists looked to the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference as the next major step to control greenhouse gas emissions.
The price of crude oil hit $145 per barrel in June, 2008. The International Energy Agency and other organizations declared that we were at peak oil, forecasting a decline in global production. Many claimed that the world was running out of hydrocarbon energy.
Driven by the twin demons of global warming and peak oil, world governments clamored to support renewables. Twenty years of subsidies, tax-breaks, feed-in tariffs, and mandates resulted in an explosion of renewable energy installations. The Renewable Energy Index (RENIXX) of the world’s 30 top renewable energy companies soared to over 1,800.
Tens of thousands of wind turbine towers were installed, totaling more than 200,000 windmills worldwide by the end of 2012. Germany led the world with more than one million rooftop solar installations. Forty percent of the US corn crop was converted to ethanol vehicle fuel.
But at the same time, an unexpected energy revolution was underway. Using good old Yankee ingenuity, the US oil and gas industry discovered how to produce oil and natural gas from shale. With hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, vast quantities of hydrocarbon resources became available from shale fields in Texas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.
From 2008 to 2013, US petroleum production soared 50 percent. US natural gas production rose 34 percent from a 2005 low. Russia, China, Ukraine, Turkey, and more than ten nations in Europe began issuing permits for hydraulic fracturing. The dragon of peak oil and gas was slain.
In 2009, the ideology of Climatism, the belief that humans were causing dangerous global warming, came under serious attack. In November, emails were released from top climate scientists at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, an incident christened Climategate. The communications showed bias, manipulation of data, avoidance of freedom of information requests, and efforts to subvert the peer-review process, all to further the cause of man-made climate change.
One month later, the Copenhagen Climate Conference failed to agree on a successor climate treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. Failures at United Nations conferences at Cancun (2010), Durban (2011), Doha (2012), and Warsaw (2013) followed. Canada, Japan, Russia, and the United States announced that they would not participate in an extension of the Kyoto Protocol.
Major climate legislation faltered across the world. Cap and trade failed in Congress in 2009, with growing opposition from the Republican Party. The price of carbon permits in the European Emissions Trading System crashed in April 2013 when the European Union voted not to support the permit price. Australia elected Prime Minister Tony Abbott in the fall of 2013 on a platform of scrapping the nation’s carbon tax.
Europeans discovered that subsidy support for renewables was unsustainable. Subsidy obligations soared in Germany to over $140 billion and in Spain to over $34 billion by 2013. Renewable subsidies produced the world’s highest electricity rates in Denmark and Germany. Electricity and natural gas prices in Europe rose to double those of the United States.
Worried about bloated budgets, declining industrial competitiveness, and citizen backlash, European nations have been retreating from green energy for the last four years. Spain slashed solar subsidies in 2009 and photovoltaic sales fell 80 percent in a single year. Germany cut subsidies in 2011 and 2012 and the number of jobs in the German solar industry dropped by 50 percent. Renewable subsidy cuts in the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom added to the cascade. The RENIXX Renewable Energy Index fell below 200 in 2012, down 90 percent from the 2008 peak.
Once a climate change leader, Germany turned to coal after the 2012 decision to close nuclear power plants. Coal now provides more than 50 percent of Germany’s electricity and 23 new coal-fired power plants are planned. Global energy from coal has grown by 4.4 percent per year over the last ten years.
Spending on renewables is in decline. From a record $318 billion in 2011, world renewable energy spending fell to $280 billion in 2012 and then fell again to $254 billion in 2013, according to Bloomberg. The biggest drop occurred in Europe, where investment plummeted 41 percent last year. The 2013 expiration of the US Production Tax Credit for wind energy will continue the downward momentum.
Today, wind and solar provide less than one percent of global energy. While these sources will continue to grow, it’s likely they will deliver only a tiny amount of the world’s energy for decades to come. Renewable energy output may have peaked, at least as a percentage of global energy production.
[Originally published at Communities Digital News]
There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal.
While it has approached the normals at the end of the winter season a couple of times because of new ice growth, this signals something completely different. That multiyear growth means business – and it shows the theory on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is likely to be on target.
Once it flips, this red herring of climate panic will be gone. Global and Southern Hemisphere anomalies are already unmentionable since the former is well above normal and the latter is routinely busting daily records.
The biggest minimum anomalies are in the summer since this flipped, and the only peaks came very close to the height of winters once this melting was underway.
Now look at what the CFSV2 forecasted for 2012.
The brief positive anomaly hit early, but for the summer it’s well below normal. In 2013, it’s the same, though not as far.
But this year it’s forecast to be around normal in August!
This is only with a yearly AMO back off. I don’t think this is the real deal of the flip yet. But it makes the point that one can correlate the ice in the Arctic with the Atlantic cycle.
If we look at the cold AMO years we can plainly see why this is going on.
The Jamstec model is forecasting water temps this summer to be much colder in the north Atlantic than the map above. but still not cold enough to say this is the permanent flip. It is, however, a sign of what is to come.
It should be obvious as to who is the boss here, and with the warm AMO in its waning years, the Arctic sea ice hysteria will wind up where so many agenda driven items do – on the ash heap of history.
This, if correct, is going to be a huge story. It would be the first summer where Arctic sea ice returned to near normal, indicative of the increase in multiyear ice and what a turn to the colder AMO in the future means! Let’s see if anyone else picks up on it.
By the way, this same kind of evolution through the fall and into the winter would lead to another harsh U.S. winter.
The Environmental Protection Agency sent out this news release April 30 asking for public comment supporting their efforts to promote renewable energy solar and wind as replacements for fossil fuels in electricity production. (The release is also pasted below.) This is in support of EPA programs to stop fossil fuels use by declaring carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels as a catastrophic air pollutant.
I can assure you this news release was sent to assigned representatives of the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, etc. which will generate possibly hundreds of thousands of comments to support this program. EPA used this approach to obtain one million letters of support for its ruling to stop use of coal for generating electricity in future power plants.
The EPA was charged with seeing the nation had clean water and air back in 1970. It is not an agency to promote energy policy. Give them a dose of their own medicine by submitting comments denouncing their actions to email@example.com. Share this blog post with friends who have similar thoughts.
Enesta Jones (News Media Only)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 30, 2014
EPA Solicits Public Comments on Action Plan for RE-Powering America’s Land
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is seeking public comments on the draft action plan for its RE-Powering America’s Land Initiative. The plan guides EPA’s efforts over the next two years to encourage renewable energy development on current and formerly contaminated lands, landfills and mine sites when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. The cleanup of contaminated land and the production of renewable energy will provide long-term improvements to air quality in communities, while protecting public health.
In 2010, the RE-Powering America’s Land Initiative published its first management plan to provide a useful framework to engage stakeholders on the potential to site renewable energy on contaminated lands and track progress. This second action plan, Action Plan 2.0, identifies activities planned for the next two years.
The agency will solicit comments for 30 days. Comments on the proposed plan are due by Friday, May 30.To submit a comment, please send to firstname.lastname@example.org
A copy of the draft Action Plan 2.0: http://www.epa.gov/oswercpa/action_plan.htm