Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass, whose writing I commend heartily to readers of Somewhat Reasonable, this morning called my attention to some fascinating research reported recently in Mother Jones. It is truly not every day that Kass cites Mother Jones, so I was intrigued.
In ”Can Conservatives be fixed scientifically?” Kass quotes an April 4 Mother Jones article – This Machine Can Tell Whether You’re Liberal or Conservative – as saying conservatives “go through the world more attentive to negative, threatening and disgusting stimuli.”
For reasons that won’t come as any surprise to readers of Somewhat Reasonable, my mind immediately turned to environmental issues, and climate change in particular. Surely Mother Jones and the researcher whose work it reports, University of Nebraska-Lincoln political scientist John Hibbing, would recognize environmental alarmism as a glaring exception to this notion that conservatives are the “negative” ones?
But alas, there’s no evidence Mother Jones or Hibbing recognize this gap in Hibbing’s theory.
Mother Jones reports: “Some of us are more hierarchical, as opposed to egalitarian; some of us prefer harsher punishments for rule breakers, whereas some of us would be more inclined to forgive; some of us find outsiders or out-groups intriguing and enticing, whereas others find them threatening.” (italics mine)
Hibbing and Mother Jones clearly want to conclude conservatives are the ones described by the phrases I’ve italicized. But on climate change and other environmental issues, that’s simply not true.
“Hierarchical” describes people who see the world as being “ranked,” with some groups of people higher than others. Think of the left’s obsession with “class warfare” and you’ll get some idea of where they’re coming from. People who are “more hierarchical” are likely to believe individuals can’t manage their own lives – they need the government to tell them what to do and how to do it. Granted, some conservatives are like that on some issues … but liberals are like that, big time, on energy and environment and climate change issues. It is the liberals, after all, who talk about “global” warming and think a “global” governing body – the United Nations – has all the answers on climate change.
(N.B.: The phrase “climate change deniers” is not something that would be used by “happy,” “positive” people. Nobody is denying climate change happens. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change notes in Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, “Any human global climate signal is so small as to be nearly indiscernible against the background variability of the natural climate system. Climate change is always occurring.”)
Finally, it’s clearly the liberals who find “outsiders or out-groups” threatening. Why else would they label the scientists who disagree with them “deniers,” refuse to engage in civil debate or even speak at events to share their views in an open forum?
On energy, environment, and climate issues, it is the “conservatives and their rambunctious libertarian siblings,” as Kass calls us, who have a positive message to deliver: that global warming is not a crisis, the likely benefits of man-made global warming exceed the likely costs, and mankind is not the scourge on Earth that liberals make us out to be.
On Thursday, April 3, The Heartland Institute’s Author Series featured F.H. Buckley, author and foundation professor at George Mason University School of Law with his eye-opening, recently published book titled, “The Once and Future King: The Rise and Fall of Crown Government.” A citizen of Canada, Buckley will be sworn in as a U.S. citizen April 15.
Buckley didn’t mince words when he shattered just about every myth surrounding American government. The Constitution, with its separation of powers, was not what the Founders had in mind. They instead envisioned a country in which Congress would dominate the government and in which the president would play a much smaller role.
Buckley offered a clarion warning about the alarming rise of one-man rule in the age of Obama, which he calls Crown government, and which one of our Founders (George Mason) called an “elective monarchy” that was worse than the real thing.
How did this nation arrive at its current state?
Although Buckley is not a Constitutional lawyer, he feels that as an outsider he has a better prospective of what led to American’s transformation to that of an “Imperial Presidency,” a term first coined by Arthur Schlesinger Jr. in a book by the same name, who as an adviser to the Kennedy administration, later condemned Richard Nixon’s abuse of presidential power and accordingly called for a return of power to the congressional branch.
Foremost in Buckley’s presentation was how presidential regimes differ from parliamentary systems of government through his evaluation of both systems:
- Most worrisome in a presidential system is that the head of government and the head of state are united as one, in contrast to a parliamentary system where control rests more in party leaders.
- Presidents can hide behind lecterns, but not prime ministers who must respond to questions from the Opposition on a daily basis when Parliament is in session or when the prime minister is in the country. Obama wouldn’t last in a parliamentary form of government where he would have to answer every question directed to him by Republican leaders.
- Presidents have a fixed term, while prime ministers may be ousted at any time by a majority in the House of Commons. In 225 years no president has ever been removed from office through impeachment. Nixon may have saved himself from this fate by resigning. Clinton was able to slow walk the impeachment process long enough to place the blame on Ken Starr. Andrew Johnson came close to impeachment but won by a single vote: 35 to convict; 19 to acquit. The “high crimes and misdemeanors” test of our Constitution requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate. Rejected was what was first proposed by George Mason which called for impeachment based on a “maladministration” standard. Madison disagreed with the maladministration standard fearing that presidents under that standard could be removed for any reason. Evident is that the Framers never anticipated that the presidency would emerge as the dominate branch of the government and that a broad impeachment power might be necessary to keep the executive branch in check. As observed by Thomas Jefferson in his old age, a judgment seconded by Henry Adams, impeachment, as set forth in the Constitution, was not even a scarecrow!
- The president is the only person elected by the entire country and has become the principal symbol of American democracy. While Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution established that the president has the power to run the executive branch of the government, Article II, Section 2 was amended in 1804 through the 12th amendment which set up the Electoral College system which still governs modern presidential elections. This system of electing presidents has given way to the rise of a strong president, helped along by the sick adulation of the president by the media (far better when politicians are considered buffoons!), and a Supreme Court that serves at the whim of presidents.
- The Electoral College system of electing presidents has ultimately produced a different kind of leader who is subject to public extremes of love and hatred, out of which has developed intense partisanship and gridlock. It hasn’t helped that the media has made rock stars out of the heads of government.
- The loss of political freedom is associated with the concentration of power at the top in a president; hence, a “Reversibility” problem exists where people are stuck with bad laws and rulings, i.e., Obamacare. With the power to issue Executive Orders, President Obama is putting in place policies that fit his own agenda if unable to legislate through Congress.
- Presidential systems are difficult to export to other countries. It didn’t work when exporting to South America. There are lots of presidents for life, but never a prime minister; however, in these modern times both presidents and prime ministers have gained increased power.
The issue of immigration was touched upon in the context of how population is renewed by birth and immigration. The intake of immigration in the 1950′s looked like America with 70% from Europe and Asia. The immigration intake now largely consist of those living south of the Rio Grande. They didn’t come here after reading the Federalist papers! Many will latch on to the Democrat Party, being used to having power centered in a powerful president with government as their keeper.
Also of concern to Buckley is our criminal law system. The scope of current law is so broad that its interpretation is often left open to the individual wishing to apply the law. Buckley’s fear is that those having the incorrect political leaning could be arrested or penalized.
Despite the many drawback of our presidential system, what went so wrong that we now have an elected head of state and president who is behaving like an Imperial President?
As stated by F.H. Buckley, “We’ve had a wonderful run for 235 years.” As to the age we are living in, we can no longer count on the courts to protect our constitutional liberties.
Unless there is an extremely egregious nominee, the Senate votes to uphold the nomination. Despite the many scandals that have happened under the watch of Democrats, including Fast and Furious, Bengali, and the targeting of conservative groups by the IRS, because an ineffective Department of Justice and an Attorney General is in place who is tied to the president and not concerned about Constitutional principles, culpability is being denied and justice is not being served.
Then too there is the present Congress whose members are not willing to step up to the plate, but for a few, and take a united stand against Democrat proposals that are wrong for this nation. Not only did wimpy and frightened Republican recently give in to Democrats while receiving nothing in return when they allowed the debt ceiling to be raised, but in dealing with the $862 billion Stimulus Bill passed in 2009, very little direction was given on how this tremendous amount of money should be spent.
It is easier to change course in a parliamentary regime than in one with an elected president. For not only is it difficult to amend the Constitution, but a Supreme Court stacked with judges in sync with the views of a president and a media that fawns over the president create additional obstacles.
As the concentration of power becomes more in the hands of one instead of many, the deck becomes more and more stacked against effecting change in Congress through working within the system. An examples of when change happened from outside the system was the tea party’s show of election might when new comers were elected to Congress in 2010, all united on the pledge to shut down the earmark favor factory.
Also deserving of credit by Buckley was the “Republican Contract of America” written in part by Newt Gingrich and introduced six weeks before the1994 Congressional election. Current Republican members of the House of Representatives and those citizens seeking to join that body, promised not just work to change its policies, but even more so to restore the bonds of trust between the people and their elected representatives. The contract enabled New Gingrich to become the first Republican Speaker of the House of Representative in 40 years. The Contract included 8 proposals outlining legislature to get enacted by the House of Representative within the first 100 days of the 104th Congress (1995-96). All parts of the Contract were passed by the House under the leadership of Speaker Gingrich.
After all the negative views presented, there was something positive news to grab on to. Noted was that all good things seem to be happening on the Right, such as Students for Liberty, as the Left continues to digs its hole even deeper with policies that take this nation in the wrong direction. National referendums could be useful but this would require that all legislators come together and speak about the same problem, hardly likely! Being advocated by Mark Levin and others is a Constitutional Convention. It was slipped into Article 5 of the Constitution by George Mason as an alternate way for amendments to be proposed which says, “If two-thirds of state legislatures demand a meeting, Congress “shall call a convention for proposing amendments.”
[Originall published at Illinois Review]
The release of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) has sparked a predictable backlash from the mainstream media and the scientific community. Yet it is a document that cannot be quashed with the usual dose of scorn; it’s far too well-researched for that!
In fact, the voluminous Climate Change Reconsidered has thrust the subject of anthropogenic climate change back into the spotlight. Heartland President Joseph Bast appeared in a Fox News special report today, in which he discussed the position of the NIPCC on the positive effects warming can have for humanity.
“Rising carbon dioxide levels and warmer temperatures have been shown to actually improve agricultural productivity,” Bast told the interviewer, “Billions of people are being fed today who would not have been fed.”
While it is unclear as yet whether this new report from the NIPCC will have the transformative effect on the public discourse surrounding climate change and global warming its authors hope for, it is clear that the debate it fosters has yielded significant returns in terms of both general public awareness of the continuing controversy, and of specific encouragement to move away from unquestioning acceptance of Establishment Science’s pronouncements.
During the Fox interview, Bast stated that, “Ethical standards have been lowered, peer-review has been corrupted, and we can’t trust what appears in our most prestigious journals anymore.” It is certainly true that the climate change debate, particularly in the wake of 2009′s Climate Gate scandal, has served not only to occasionally embarrass mainstream opponents, but also to enliven public scrutiny of the scientific research process.
Peer review is a system that often “rewards conformity” over unorthodox thinking, which can turn the journals and publications of record that are meant to be the keen spear-point of scientific progress into a blunt instrument for enforcing the status quo. The need to publish papers as the means of securing academic promotion reinforces the problem, as repeating or defending the existing consensus is more likely to garner successful publication. The echo-chamber of academia thus drowns out dissenting voices.
Scientists ought to welcome challenges to the mainstream, even if they believe they are wholly wrong. The flaws in research papers that Climate Change Reconsidered shines a light on can now be better addressed by all scientists in future. True scientific progress is achieved through iconoclasm, not conservatism.
The debates that will spread in the coming months as Climate Change Reconsidered II is discussed in the media and academic circles can only make science better.
As Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced last week a renewed push to provide $16 billion in taxpayer-backed loans for “clean” technology vehicles, more bad news emerged from another stimulus-funded electric vehicle company over the weekend.
Smith Electric Vehicles, the truck company that was supposed to “make it” because electrification made so much sense for short, urban delivery routes, halted production at the end of 2013. A quarterly report at Recovery.gov attributed the stoppage to “the company’s tight cash flow situation.”
While not a beneficiary of the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program that Moniz wants to revive, Smith Electric is another reason why subsidies of any type for this floundering pseudo-industry – loans, grants, tax breaks, etc. – are enormous wastes. In light of the hundreds of millions of dollars that other companies like Fisker Automotive, Ecotality and A123 Systems received, Smith’s $32 million in grants is comparatively modest. But perhaps no company was less deserving of the subsidies than the Kansas City-based truck maker.
Smith’s selling point was that delivery routes in urban areas did not require a long range between refueling (or, recharging). Frequent stops and short distances alleviated the “range anxiety” affixed to cars like theNissan Leaf. Frito-Lay, Coca-Cola and Staples were cited as early adopters of the truck demonstration project, which the grants were supposed to support.
But in reality, as NLPC reported in December 2011, Smith was already a failed company based in the United Kingdom – a division of a larger company called the Tanfield Group. Smith-U.S. established itself in Kansas City in January 2009, following a precipitous drop in Tanfield’s U.K. stock value in mid-2008. Financial analysts became troubled because claims the company made about matters such as vehicle orders could not be verified. The company was accused of exercising poor disclosure standards and weak financial controls, according to theLondon Telegraph. Tanfield’s cash evaporation led the company to lose 97 percent of its value in 2008, prompted inquiries by the London Stock Exchange and by the U.K. Accountancy and Actuarial Discipline Board.
Despite that track record, in August 2009 the Obama administrationannounced a $10 million award to Smith-U.S. – less than eight months old in America. The following March Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskillannounced the additional $22 million for Smith’s truck demonstration project. All this early taxpayer money didn’t just go to a company with no history, or an existing one with promise, but a foreign flop.
Still, the Obama administration and McCaskill did their best to inflate prospects for Smith, with both visiting the manufacturing facility and boasting of its promise. And every so often in the last couple years there would be a flurry of positive media coverage for which there was no justification: An empty promise to build a manufacturing facility in The Bronx, and another unfulfilled pledge to build a plant in Chicago. In reality the boasts never came to fruition because they were wholly dependent on state and local subsidies that never materialized. Bottom line: prospects for the business were not based on a vehicle that the market actually demanded, but instead upon government financial favors.
How do we know? Because fundamental math shows that Smith waspractically giving away their trucks for the demonstration project. A review of its grant on the Recovery.gov Web site indicates that users of Smith’s trucks under the demonstration project are only doing so at minimal cost to themselves. The most recent report (reflecting up until Dec. 31, 2013) under the $32 million grant shows that Smith delivered 439 of its vehicles, with $29,150,672 reimbursed to the company with government funds thus far. That calculates to a sizable $66,402 taxpayer subsidy per vehicle.
As the New York Times has reported, based upon information it received from a company representative, while the trucks range in price from $100,000 to $150,000, there were many other forms of grants and tax breaks to be had. Smith’s Web site revealed other clues about how much its clients benefit from government program subsidies. Among the incentives were: the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit (up to 30 percent of the vehicle’s cost); Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Tax Credit (between $2,500 and $7,500 per truck); EPA Diesel Emissions Reduction Act Grant (up to 25 percent of the total cost of a vehicle); Clean Cities Grant (up to 50 percent total cost of the vehicle); and Congestion, Mitigation and Air Quality Funds. And then there are various state and local government support as well.
Alas, all that taxpayer dough still didn’t appear to be enough to make Smith viable. And at the current rate the Department of Energy has supported its trucks, there isn’t enough money left in the grant to reach the goal of 510 vehicles in the demonstration project – they will fall about $2 million short, assuming they have any money left at all. With 44 percent to 67 percent of the trucks’ cost subsidized just under the grant program – let alone all the other government incentives – Smith’s survival without training wheels looks virtually impossible.
According to the Kansas City Star, company officials aren’t talking, which also looks bad. An email from a DOE spokesperson said, “DOE continues to work with Smith Electric on the path forward for the remaining vehicle production.” Whether or not the company is making its lease payments to the city’s Aviation Department is going unanswered.
It’s more bad timing for Secretary Moniz to start making the case for more subsidies to electric vehicles, but then again, there is never a good time with this administration’s track record.
[Originally published at NLPC]
If there is one label more than any other that principled advocates of individual liberty are often stamped with it is that they are “extremists.” How can you be so extreme, it is said, what is wrong with a compromise between personal freedom and some “reasonable” degree of government regulation, welfare legislation, and social intervention?
The first question that should be asked back when confronted with such an accusation is, with what is the friend of liberty being asked to compromise? The real answer, of course, is that the friend of liberty is being asked to compromise with the use of coercive force in human relationships.Freedom or Coercion in Human Affairs
The simple fact is that human association may be based on peaceful and mutually beneficial agreement and exchange, or it may be based on one party in this human relationship threatening or using force to make the other party do something that he would not willingly do if he were free from the danger of violence.
Freedom is important not because a person might want to say, “yes,” to an offer made to him, but because he might want to say, “no.” If an individual cannot say “no” without being threatened with some form of physical harm from the other person in the relationship, then that individual is not free.
Being a slave is to be required to do what someone else wants without one’s voluntary consent. It is to be coercively made the means to another’s ends or goals. That individual’s life is no longer his own. Instead, to the extent that he is made to serve the ends of another without his voluntary consent he is no longer a free man, but rather the property of another to be used as the slave-master wishes.
Often when the friend of freedom gives this reply he is accused, again, of going to extremes. But who, in this debate over freedom and coercion, is the actual extremist and who is the actual moderate? The advocate of state coercion in social affairs cannot stand the fact that people make choices, and undertake courses of action, of which he disapproves. He objects to the fact that people fail to follow the paths that his reason and values consider rational and good. Everything else is either chaotic or sinister.The Social Engineer as Political Madman
In this sense, he is like the maniac of whom G.K. Chesterton speaks in his book, “Orthodoxy” (1908). The madman, Chesterton says, is the one “who has lost everything except his reason…. He is not hampered by a sense of humor or by charity, or by the dumb uncertainties of experience. The madman’s explanation of a thing is always complete, and often in a purely rational sense satisfactory.” The madman has a “most sinister quality” of “connecting of one thing with another in a map more elaborate than a maze.”
The advocate of state coercion has, in this sense, been driven mad by the outcomes of a free society. If some men are poor while others are well to do, he cannot accept the idea that this is due to the natural scarcity of resources, or is merely as far as free market capitalism has yet been able to raise people’s standards of living in an on-going and time-consuming process of savings and investment. No, it must be because men have not submitted themselves to a plan — his plan — that his reason has given him, and not others, the superior wisdom and insight to see.
If some men receive lower pay than others, or do not have access to all the goods and services they desire, the advocate of state coercion — like the madman — often sees sinister motives and dark conspiracies. If some workers receive lower wages, it can’t be because of a lack of marketable skills or insufficient personal ambition to better themselves. No, it must be because of the businessman’s greed and unwillingness to pay “a fair wage,” or a plot among the employers to exploit their fellow human beings. The advocate of state coercion believes that he can see beneath the “charade “and he, of course, knows the regulation or intervention to put the conspirators in their place and remedy the problem.
The social madman has the answer and the solution for everything. He has no patience for ignorance, good intentions that go astray, or some natural scheme of things. And like the madman, he has no doubts about his knowledge, the goodness of his intentions and their outcome, or what the scheme of things should be turned into. Human freedom and its advocates are the irritants that he tolerates when he has to, but with which and with whom he never compromises. He has too much confidence in his own vision. In his mind, extremism in the defense of the state-molded “good society” is no vice.Smoking and the Political Extremist
Let me try to explain this with two issues that have dominated social policy in the Western world over the last several years. The first one is the growing ban on smoking in virtually all public and private areas. In the “bad old days” it was taken to be common courtesy and good manners to ask others in an enclosed space if they minded if he, the smoker, wished to light up his cigar, cigarette, or pipe. If there were any objections, the smoker would either refrain or move to another place to enjoy his nicotine fix. Sometimes, non-smokers would be, in turn, well-mannered enough not to object if the smoke was not too much of a nuisance.
The antismoking advocate just cannot reconcile himself to the existence of others who gain pleasure from something of which he disapproves, and by people who weigh the enjoyment of the present more highly than the possible consequences of health problems in the future. Nor can he stand a world in which the market provides options to those with different preferences: restaurants, bars or other public places in which the proprietor may see the economic benefit of providing both smoking and non-smoking facilities, including ones in which some such places are completely smoke free while other places permit unrestricted smoking.
For the advocate of freedom, the market alternative is precisely the reasonable and moderate one. It recognizes and accepts the varieties and preferences among men and offers a compromise, a peaceful resolution, of the differences among them. And it leaves a wide avenue open for one group of men to reason and persuade another to modify their choices and forswear “a filthy and corrupting” habit.Religious Tolerance vs. the Politically Closed Mind
Another example is religious tolerance. For centuries in Europe, kings and governments did not tolerate religious diversity. Those who dared to confess and practice a faith differing from that of the monarch or the political authority were threatened with imprisonment, exile, or even torture and death. It took hundreds of years and numerous religious wars before men where willing to leave religious faith, or no faith, to the conscience of each member of society.
In the liberal society that slowly evolved during the last few centuries in the West it came to be accepted that religion was a private matter and not “an affair of the state.” Debates, disputes, and even heated argument over religious matters were to be left to the marketplace of ideas. Conversions and “crusades” for the acceptance of the “true” faith were only to be fought on the battlefield of the mind and the spirit, and not at the end of the hangman’s rope.
But now there has arisen a new political intolerance against any public demonstration for or stated disagreement with a particular religious faith. Religious views are to be locked away in the believer’s mind, and any public expression of his faith is considered somehow to be imposing that belief on others. Thus, if a private business establishment chooses to exhibit a religious symbol on its own property, (even if many of his customers desire or agree with it), it is increasingly considered grounds for legal suit and legislative prohibition.
At the same time, if the proponent of one faith declares his disagreement or disapproval of another faith this, in turn, is considered an act of religious “intolerance” that is to be regulated or legislated against as a supposed “hate crime.” Thus, in the name of religious “tolerance” governments are increasingly becoming intolerant of any individuals or private groups that express their differences and disagreements with other belief systems in that marketplace of ideas. A new form of religious censorship is being imposed on people of every faith.The New Religious Intolerance vs. the Marketplace of Ideas
A widely publicized instance of this new intolerance a few years ago was the firestorm of controversy that followed publication of the Danish newspaper cartoons, which portrayed Mohammed in an unflattering light. When some foreign governments and domestic pressure groups called for the censorship and punishment of those who published the cartoons, the liberal reply should have been that law and politics have not place in this matter. One might question and even personally challenge the good manners or polite taste of those who published them, but this is all part of the peaceful rivalry of ideas in which both the vulgar and the refined compete for the attention and acceptance of the reading and thinking public.
When I was a small boy I was taught that when someone said something rude or insulting to me the appropriate response was, “Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words can never harm me.” Now, of course, words can and do hurt, and precisely because of this decent men in a free society should show a reasonable moderation in what and how they say things. And, indeed, it used to be taken as more of a demonstration of the “crudity” and “ignorance” of the speaker that he should rise no higher than the gutter in what he said and how he acted toward another.
But, instead, the intolerant, political extremist wishes to ban what he considers the religiously “insensitive” and what he labels “word harms” and therefore crimes. Does this settle disputes among men about matters of religious faith (or any other idea or belief)? No, this new political extremist intolerance for private religious expressions of faith and differences of views in the public arena threatens to potentially make social tensions even worse over these issues.
It makes people fearful of speaking their minds, forces them into a public hypocrisy, and allows differences and disagreements to fester below the surface. By driving men’s thoughts “underground” it generates a “black market” place of ideas where the truly corrupt, vile, and dangerous can grow and mutate precisely because they are not challenged in the bright light of open and public discourse and debate.
The advocate of freedom, with his deep belief in the sanctity and uniqueness of the individual and his right to peacefully live his own life as chooses, has always been repelled by the idea of condemning or punishing people because of the values or beliefs that they may hold but which they do not attempt to forcibly impose on others.
The friend of liberty has believed that all ideas should be treated with respect and can only be discussed and challenged and possibly be shown to be right or wrong on the basis of reason, logic and evidence. Attempts to politically discriminate against or ban open and free discussion of any ideas are the only things that should to be viewed as unreasonable and intolerable in the free society.Liberty and a Society of True Tolerance
The free society tries to avoid extremes through the diversity of free men that it both permits and fosters. It restrains the practice of “extreme” personal behavior because it imposes costs and consequences upon everyone who practices them, in the form of lost economic opportunity, and possibly social ostracism by those who are repelled by it.
It also teaches the advantages of moderation — courtesy, good manners, tolerance and “socially acceptable” conduct – in the competitive arena of intellectual pluralism where to win an argument the only medium of exchange is peaceful persuasion.
In other words, the free society nudges men toward better behavior and rational thought rather than tries to compel it. It teaches good and tolerant conduct through reason and example. It fosters compromise by demonstrating the personal costs of being too extreme in one’s words and actions. And it raises the ethical conduct of society by the discovered advantages of personal improvement through time.
Are the arguments for and the advocates of liberty too extreme? Quite to the contrary. Freedom is the epitome of moderation. And it is freedom’s moderation, its tolerance and diversity that drive some men mad. But madness, by definition, is not the normal condition of a healthy human being.
The history of Western civilization is the story of man’s slow escape from the madness of political and social extremism in the form of coercion and force in human relationships. Our dilemma and our challenge is that this sickness still controls the minds of too many of our fellow citizens, and is the guiding principle of those who use political power to get their way.
[Originally published at EpicTimes]
Recently the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) sent out a “2014 Priority Issues Survey.” In addition to the obligatory Tea Party bashing: “help the Democrats protect the progress we have made from Tea Party radicals, deliver the positive changes America needs and help Democrats win a Majority in the U.S. House of Representatives!” and the fundraising requests to “help protect House Democrats against Republican attacks”—there is a section on energy.
Section VII, asks: “Which of the following will help America achieve energy independence?” It offers five options that do little to move America toward energy independence—which isn’t even a realistic goal given the fungible nature of liquid fuels. Additionally, most of the choices given on the DCCC survey actually increase energy costs for all Americans—serving as a hidden tax—but hurt those on the lower end of the socio-economic scale the most. The proposals hurt the very people the party purports to champion.
The survey asks respondents to “check all that apply.”
Raising gas mileage standards for all new cars and trucks
This choice presumes that making a law requiring something will make it happen. Sorry, not even the Democrats have that kind of power. Even the current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard of 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2025—finalized on August 28, 2012 and called “the largest mandatory fuel economy increase in history”—will be tough to hit.
The CAFE standards mean that a carmaker’s passenger vehicle fleet average must achieve 54.5 mpg. To meet that, and produce the big pick-up trucks and SUVsAmericans like to drive, the manufacturers must also produce the little itty-bitty cars with mpg above 60 and the more expensive hybrids (not one of which was on the top ten best-seller list for 2013)—or have a loss leader like the Chevy Volt to help bring down the average.
Suggesting a forced raising of gas mileage standards implies that auto manufacturers are in collusion with oil companies and are intentionally producing gas guzzlers to force Americans into buying lots of gasoline.
With the price of gasoline wavering between $3-4.00 a gallon, most people are very conscious of their fuel expenditures. If it were technologically possible to build a cost-effective truck or SUV that had the size and safety Americans want and that got 50 mpg, that manufacturer would have the car-buying public beating a path to its door. Every car company would love to be the one to corner that market—but it is not easy, it probably won’t be possible, and it surely won’t be cheap.
When the new standards were introduced in November 2011, Edmonds.com did an analysis of the potential impact: 6 Ways New CAFE Standards Could Affect You. The six points include cost and safety and highlights some concerns that are not obvious at first glance.
Achieving the higher mileage will require new technologies that include, according to Edmunds, “turbochargers and new generations of multispeed automatic transmissions to battery-electric powertrains.” The National Highway Traffic Saftey Administration and the Environmental Protection Agencyhave estimated that the average new car will cost $2,000 extra by 2025 because of the proposed new fuel-efficiency standards.
Additionally, new materials will have to be used, such as the proposed new Ford F-150 made with aluminum, which is predicted to add $1500 over steel to the cost of a new truck. Aluminum also complicates both the manufacturing and repair processes. Edmunds reports: “Insurance costs could rise, both because of the increased cost of cars and the anticipated hike in collision repair costs associated with the greater use of the plastics, lightweight alloys and aluminum necessary for lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles. (Plastics, lightweight alloys and aluminum are all more difficult than steel to repair.)”
Another concern is safety. “The use of weight-saving materials will not only affect repair costs but could make newer vehicles more susceptible to damage in collisions with older, heavier vehicles, especially SUVs and pickups. Their occupants could be at a safety disadvantage.”
One of the subtle consequences of high mileage vehicles is the probable increase in taxes. Edmunds points out that lower driving cost may increase wear-and-tear on the nation’s highway system as consumers drive more freely. “Declining gas sales mean a further decrease in already inadequate fuel-tax revenue used to pay for road and infrastructure repair and improvement. … As more untaxed alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas and electricity are used for transportation, fuel tax revenue falls even farther. All of this is likely to lead to calls for a road tax based on miles driven and not the type of fuel used.”
Instead of increasing costs by forcing a higher mpg, a free-market encourages manufacturers to produce the cars the customers want. The Wall Street Journalstory on the Ford F-150s points out: “In 2004, as the auto market soared, Ford sold a record 939,511 F-series pickups. That amounted to 5.5% of the entire U.S. vehicle market. But four years later, gas prices rose above $4 a gallon, sales of pickups began tumbling.” Then, consumers wanted small cars with better mileage. I often quote an ad for Hyundai I once saw. As I recall, it said: “It’s not that complicated. If gas costs a lot of money, we’ll produce cars that use less of it.”
In response to an article in US News on the 5.45-mpg CAFE standard, a reader commented: “ALL CAFE regulations should be repealed. Let the market and fuel prices decide what vehicles are purchased. The federal government should not be forcing mileage standards down the throats of the automaker or the consumers. This is still America, right?”
Develop Renewable Energy Sources
There is nothing inherently wrong with the idea renewable energy. However, the cost factor is one of the biggest problems. When I do radio interviews, people often call in and point out Germany’s renewable energy success story: “The share of renewable electricity in Germany rose from 6% to nearly 25% in only ten years.” While that may be true, it doesn’t address the results: “Rising energy costs are becoming a problem for more and more citizens in Germany. Just from 2008 to 2011 the share of energy-poor households in the Federal Republic jumped from 13.8 to 17 percent.”
Germany has been faced with a potential exodus of industry as a result of its high energy costs. For example, in February, BASF, the world’s biggest chemical maker by sales, announced that for the first time, it “will make the most of its capital investments outside Europe.” According to the Financial Times, Kurt Bock, BASF chief executive explained: “In Europe we have the most expensive energy and we are not prepared to exploit the energy resources we have, such as shale gas.”
Throughout America people are beginning to feel the escalating costs of the forced renewable energy utility companies are required to add as a result of Renewable Portfolio Standards that more than half of the states passed nearly a decade ago.
But the cost is not where I take issue with the DCCC’s inclusion of “Developing renewable energy sources” in its survey. The survey question is about achieving “energy independence.”
In preparation for writing this column, I posted this question on my Facebook page: If the goal is “energy independence,” what issues should be a priority in America? The first answer posted was: “Smart grid and fast ramp natural gas turbines.” Another offered: “High efficiency appliances and lights. I am a LED FAN!” Yet, another: “Solar, tidal, water.” Bzzzzzzt, all wrong answers.
All of the above suggestions are about electricity. The U.S. is already electricity independent. We have enough coal and uranium under our soil to provide for our electrical needs for the next several centuries. Add to that America’s newfound abundance of natural gas and we are set indefinitely. By the time we might run out of fuel for electricity, new technologies will have been developed based on something totally different, and, I believe, something that no one is even thinking about today.
Developing more “solar, tidal, water” or wind energy won’t “help America achieve energy independence.” Nor will a smart grid or natural gas turbines. High efficiency appliances or LED light bulbs won’t either.
Encouraging consumer and industrial conservation
Consumers are already feeling the pinch of higher energy costs—both electricity and liquid fuels. When possible, people are restricting driving by taking a stay-cation rather than a traditional vacation. Many people who can afford the option are switching to more energy-efficient light bulbs.
As the BASF story above makes clear, most industry is energy intensive. In the story about the Ford F-150’s use of aluminum, the WSJ says that the new manufacturing process requires “powerful and electricity-hungry vacuums.” Industry cannot stay in business without profit. Therefore, in interest of preservation, energy conservation is virtually an instinct.
The cost of energy drives conservation.
Including this question in the survey is a red herring that would lead the respondent to think conservation is a big issue.
Investing in energy efficient technology
When the word “investing” is used in reference to a government document or program, it always means spending taxpayer dollars. In a time of ongoing economic stress, we don’t need to borrow more money to spend it on something of questionable impact on energy independence.
Remember, much of the “efficiency” numbers bandied about refer to electricity, which has nothing to do with energy independence. Energy.gov states: “Every year, much of the energy the U.S. consumes is wasted through transmission, heat loss and inefficient technology…Energy efficiency is one of the easiest and most cost effective ways to … improve the competitiveness of our businesses and reduce energy costs for consumers. The Department of Energy is working with universities, businesses and the National Labs to develop new, energy-efficient technologies while boosting the efficiency of current technologies on the market.” Among the “solutions” presented on the page are “developing a more efficient air conditioner” and “a new smart sensor developed by NREL researchers that could help commercial buildings save on lighting and ventilation costs.” Nothing is offered that will actually impact energy independence.
Increasing offshore drilling and oil exploration in wilderness areas
Respondents are discouraged from selecting the one item on the list that could actually lead to “energy independence” by the inclusion of the words “offshore” and “wilderness areas”—as if those are the only places drilling could take place.
Yes, we should increase exploration and drilling—and, while there are risks, it can be, and has been, done safely in offshore and wilderness areas. But there are vast resources available on federal lands that are either locked up or are under a de facto ban due to the slow-walking of drilling permits.
Instead of phrasing the choice “Increasing offshore drilling and oil exploration in wilderness areas,” if the goal is energy independence, the option should have read: “Release America’s vast energy resources by expediting permitting on federal lands.”
While the options on the DCCC survey, even if a respondent checked them all, will do little to “help America achieve energy independence,” the survey didn’t include any choices that could really make a difference in America’s reliance on oil from hostile sources.
Some selections that would indicate a true desire to see America freed from OPEC’s grip should include:
-Approving the Keystone pipeline;
-Revising the Endangered Species Act so that it isn’t used to block American Energy Development;
-Encouraging the use of Compressed Natural Gas as a transportation fuel in passenger vehicles and commercial trucks;
-Expediting permitting for exploration and drilling on federal lands;
-Opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; and
-Cutting red tape and duplicative regulations to encourage development.
The fact that not one of these options that would truly make a difference was included belies the ideology of the Democrat Party. Its goals do not include energy independence. Instead it wants to continue the crony corruption that has become the hallmark of the Obama Administration as evidenced by Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz’s April 2 announcement that: “the department would probably throw open the door for new applications for renewable energy project loan guarantees during the second quarter of this year.”
Like the Ukraine, until there is a change at the top, the U.S. will likely remain dependent on the whims of countries who want to use energy as a weapon of control. The goal should be energy freedom.
[Originally published at Townhall]
The United Nations Agenda 21 has quietly changed the makeup of our cities and rural areas through highly questionable tactics, clothed in lofty adjectives such as ”smart growth” and “sustainability,” as we’ve written previously. Agenda 21 activists have quietly initiated laws that allowed the government to confiscate our land, water, private property, and wilderness areas. Their ultimate goal is to strip Americans of personal rights and freedoms, creating a socialist future and eventually a one-world government. Not a pretty picture!
A necessary path to obtain those desired changes must include the indoctrination of children through education. That explains why our public schools have become increasingly liberal over the past couple of decades. Not enough citizens have challenged the progressive educators and their agenda, even though the changes were radical departures from what our Country had believed appropriate in the past.
A plan to indoctrinate our children with communist ideals has been in the works at least as far back as 1963, and probably longer. One of the first obvious steps was to take prayer and the 10 commandments out of all our public schools. Amazingly, there was little public outcry! Next, traditional school plays suddenly forbade students to sing familiar, Christmas songs such as “Silent Night.” The cleansing of Christianity from schools escalated when any mention of Christianity by students was discouraged, and in some instances students who even mentioned the name of Jesus on school grounds were disciplined.
Following the absence of Christian values in classrooms, sex education classes became popular, complete with intimate graphics and condoms freely handed out to students. Stimulated with sexual material, and free contraceptives, a clear message was sent to students that their school expected them to engage in sexual activities, but with instructions to be careful. Still, there was only a mild disapproval from the public.
With so little negative reaction, schools and the liberal movement became even bolder. They defied parental rights by taking under aged teens to abortion clinics, not only without their parents’ permission but without their knowledge as well. The schools had the approval of the state and judicial system to do so. A few young teens had serious problems after their abortions, but because the parents had no idea why they were ill, the young women did not get medical help until it was too late to save their lives. Still, no strong public outcry!
Apparently, the social issues aren’t important enough to energize people to object, but what about concern that many Communist goals have been quietly incorporated into mainstream America through our public schools? Especially guilty of this blatant indoctrination are the thousands of liberal professors in our nation’s colleges, where 63 percent of professors identify themselves as liberal, while only12 percent as conservatives. Severely outnumbered, the conservatives remained pretty quiet, while the liberals often abuse their positions by forcing their political views on a captured classroom of vulnerable students.
We are reminded of the Communists’ expressed plan to use schools as transmission belts for socialism and Communist propaganda. To succeed they realized the importance of nationalizing our entire school system, allowing liberals to decide school curriculum, controlling the teacher associations, limiting parental involvement, and cleverly inserting the party platform in school textbooks. We are now seeing many of those goals have been realized. Recently, the current Administration hi-jacked our public school system and replaced it with the controversial and experimental Common Core system. You guessed it, many of the communist goals now exist in the Common Core curriculum.
How were the progressives able to insert Common Core into all our nation’s schools, when our forefathers wisely assigned the responsibility of education to the individual states? Officials within the federal government cleverly and quietly side-stepped laws, and aggressively sold this new program to the states, with the help of hundreds of millions of dollars to promote it which came from people who stand to gain substantially from Common Core in time. Bill Gates was one of the most prolific donors, and obviously he will profit greatly. Schools will be buying his computers and accompanying products for most every student in America. One can only guess at the massive profit he will be experience.
The original idea for Common Core originated as part of UN Agenda 21, with ideas they borrowed from International Baccalaureate (IB); a group that was founded in Geneva, Switzerland in 1968 as a non-profit educational foundation. IB World schools were also created here in the U.S. The International Baccalaureate is recognized today as a globally oriented program and a UNESCO partnership program emphasizing sustainability teaching to children and collectivist, socialist indoctrination. A network of their schools still exist in 147 countries including the U.S.
Aspects of the Common Core agenda has roots identified in the Center for Educational Renewal (CER) founded in part by John Goodlad in1985 within the College of Education, University of Washington, in Seattle. Publication of an agenda in 1992 by John Goodlad entitled “Agenda for Education in a Democracy,” deviates greatly in its message from that which our Constitution guarantees to us. A disturbing quote that verifies just how far this group had deviated can be seen in “Agenda for Education in a Democracy” and the following quote:
“Enlightened social engineering is required to face situations that demand global action now . . . Parents and the general public must be reached also, otherwise, children and youth enrolled in globally oriented programs may find themselves in conflict with values assumed in the home. And then the educational institution frequently comes under scrutiny and must pull back.”
Common Core is a direct result from U.N. Agenda 21, which is evidenced in Chapter 36 which deals with “Education, Public Awareness, and Training.” It is one part of the comprehensive plan of action adopted and signed on to by more than 168 Governments — G.H. Bush represented the United States in its signing, while Bill Clinton later embraced Agenda 21 — at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janerio, Brazil June 3 – 5, 1992. The Commission of Sustainable Development (CSD) was created in December of 1992 to ensure effective follow-up. Education is indispensable for the U.N. to get its agenda established.
Then too, consider the U.N. Constitution which is a Marxist socialist paradigm where world regionalism is spelled out clearly in Chapters 8 through 11. Those chapters use terms such as “regional arrangements, intergovernmental agreements, and metropolitan areas.” The U.N. Charter became effective on June 25, 1945. President Harry S. Truman signed the United Nations Charter on August 8, 1945, and with its signing the United States became the first nation to complete the ratification process to join the new international organization.
The goal then became how to insert a national liberal education program into America; one that was in tune with the New World Order expressed in the 1945 U.N. Charter. First, needed was publicly proclaiming that our system was inferior. The government and our media began releasing reports that our school system needed to be vastly improved. Nobody has a problem with improving our school system. However, Common Core was not the solution, because it changed what did not need changing, while failed to address the known problems that still plague our school system. Parents and educators complain Common core is proving detrimental in a variety of ways. Sadly, bright, straight A students who once loved going to school, now dread their classes. That is creating obvious tension within homes between parents and their children, as well as with teachers, some of whom are so disgusted they are resigning from their loved profession.
Common Core’s plan for our children is a topic of utmost concern, as it is engineering students into a progressive, socialist agenda. Subsequent articles will explore how Common Core was covertly engineered at the federal level by a relatively small group of far left people, most of whom were not educators; and that the program was not adequately tested. Our next article will reveal how those involved and associated Common Core stand to make huge profits. Some believe federal laws have been broken, but at the very least the tradition and intent that the federal government not intrude into the states’ education responsibilities has been compromise. A subsequent article will go into more depth as we explain how and why states accepted Common Core sight unseen, and who will stand to make huge profits. Most importantly we will explain what some citizens are now doing to stop Common Core.
[Originally published at Illinois Review]
One of America’s earliest food crops – almonds – is also one of the most important for commercial beekeepers. Almonds depend on bees for pollination, but the explosive growth of this bumper crop taxes the very honeybees the industry needs to thrive.
California’s Central Valley produces over 80% of the world’s almonds, valued at over $4 billion in 2012. The boom is poised to continue, with new food products and expanding overseas markets increasing demand to the point that no young almond trees are available for purchase until 2016.
Demand for almonds translates into demand for pollination. So every year commercial beekeepers transport some 60% of all US honeybees to California’s almond groves in February and March, when it’s still winter in most other states. It’s one of their biggest challenges.
For one thing, bee colonies, especially those from northern states, lack sufficient time to emerge from their heat-conserving winter clusters. Some beekeepers thus maintain 20,000 to 30,000 hives. Each one requires careful inspection for diseases and parasites – a meticulous, Herculean task on such a scale.
Complicating the situation, beekeepers are trying to work within a large-scale agricultural system, using an insect whose husbandry practices have changed little since the nineteenth century. The larger the commercial beekeeper’s stock, the harder it can be to tend them and recover from financial setbacks in the form of lost bees.
Almond growers will need 1.5 million hives this year, estimates Colorado beekeeper Lyle Johnston. “It takes almost all the commercial bees in the United States,” to pollinate the almond crop, he says. The payoff can amount to half an individual keeper’s yearly profit.
However, bees can come back from California “loaded with mites and every other disease you can think of,” beekeeper Ed Colby explains. That can often mean bee colony deaths. Last year, US beekeepers experienced an average 30% overwinter bee loss; some lost 10% to 15% of their hives, while others lost much more. It’s a normal cost of doing business, but it can be painful.
Last year’s rate was higher than normal, and higher than any keeper would want. But it was not the “bee-pocalypse” that some news stories claimed. The real story is that efforts to identify a single unifying cause for higher-than-usual losses have failed. Scientists are discovering that multiple issues affect bee health.
Urban, suburban and agricultural “development has reduced natural habitats, clearing out thousands of acres of clover and natural flowers,” a 60 Minutesinvestigative report observed. “Instead, bees are spending week after week on the road, feeding on a single crop, undernourished and overworked.”
The migration itself is stressful, notes Glenwood Springs, Colorado Post-Independent reporter Marilyn Gleason. “First, there’s the road trip, which isn’t exactly natural for bees, and may include freezing cold or scorching heat. Bees ship out of Colorado before the coldest weather, and drivers may drench hot, thirsty bees with water at the truck wash.”
The convergence in almond groves of so many commercial bees from all over the country creates a hotbed of viruses and pathogens that can spread to many hives. The varroa destructor mite carries at least 19 different bee viruses and diseases, causing major impacts on bee colonies. Parasitic phorid flies are another problem, and highly contagious infections also pose significant threats. The intestinal fungus nosema ceranae, for example, prevents bees from absorbing nutrition, resulting in starvation.
The tobacco ringspot virus was likewise linked recently to the highly publicized problem known as “colony collapse disorder.” CCD occurs when bees in a colony disappear, leaving behind only a queen and a few workers. The term originally lumped together a variety of such “disappearing” disorders recorded in different locales across hundreds of years, as far back as 950 AD in Ireland. Thankfully, as during past episodes, these unexplained incidents have declined in recent years and, despite all these challenges, overall US honeybee populations and the number of managed colonies have held steady for nearly 20 years.
These days, perhaps the biggest existential threat to bees is campaigns purporting to save them. Extreme-green groups like the Center for Food Safety and Pesticide Action Network of North America are blaming an innovative new class of pesticides called neonicotinoids for both over-winter bee losses and CCD.
Allied with several outspoken beekeepers, the activists are pressuring the Environmental Protection Agency, Canada’s Pest Management Regulatory Agency and government regulatory agencies to follow Europe’s lead – and ban neonics. Instead of protecting bees and beekeepers, however, their campaigns will likely cause greater harm – because they ignore the multiple threats that scientists have identified, and because a neonic ban will result in farmers using pesticides that are more toxic to bees.
The European Union’s political decision to suspend neonic use came because France’s new agriculture minister banned their use. That meant French farmers would be at a distinct disadvantage with the rest of Europe, if they were the only ones unable to use the pesticide, noted British environmental commentator Richard North. They could lose $278 million per season in lost yields and extra pesticide spraying.
So the French agricultural ministry sought an EU-wide ban on all neonicotinoids. After several votes and a misleading report on the science, the European Commission imposed a ban, over the objections of many other EU members, who note that the evidence clearly demonstrates the new pesticides are safe for bees.
Years-long field tests have found that real-world exposures have no observable effects on bee colonies. Other studies have highlighted other significant insect, fungal, human and other issues that, singly or collectively, could explain CCD. Having analyzed scores of 2007-2012 bee death incidents, Canadian bee experts concluded that “…very few of the serious bee kills involve neonicotinoid pesticides. Five times as many ‘major’ or ‘moderate’ pesticide-related bee kills were sourced to non-neonic chemicals.”
In Canada’s western provinces, almost 20 million acres of 100% neonic-treated canola is pollinated annually by honeybees and tiny alfalfa leaf-cutter bees. Both species thrive on the crop, demonstrating that neonics are not a problem. Large-scale field studies of honeybees at Canadian universities and a bumblebee field study by a UK government agency found no adverse effects on bees.
Last October, a team of industry scientists published a four-year study of the effects of repeated honeybee exposure to neonic-treated corn and rapeseed (canola) pollen and nectar under field conditions in several French provinces. The study found similar mortality, foraging behavior, colony strength and weight, brood development and food storage in colonies exposed to seed-treated crops and in unexposed control colonies. This also indicates low risk to bees.
At least two more major, recently completed university-run field research projects conducted under complex, costly scientific laboratory guidelines (“good lab practices”) are awaiting publication. All indications to date suggest that they too will find no observable adverse effects on bees at field-realistic exposures to neonicotinoids.
Meanwhile Project ApisM., a partnership of agro-businesses and beekeepers, has invested $2.5 million in research to enhance the health of honeybee colonies. Switzerland-based Syngenta has spent millions expanding bee habitats in Europe and North America, through Project Pollinator. Bayer has built bee health centers in Europe and the United States, and Monsanto’s Beeologics subsidiary is developing technology to fight varroa mites.
None of that matters to the anti-pesticide activists. They are using pressure tactics to make Canada and the United States copy the EU. That would be a huge mistake. Science, not politics, should prevail.
[Originally published at Townhall]
The 2013 annual metropolitan area population estimates by the US Census Bureau indicate a continuing and persistent dominance of population growth and domestic migration by the South. Between 2010 and 2013, 51 percent of the population increase in the 52 major metropolitan areas (over 1 million population) was in the South. The West accounted for 30 percent of the increase, followed by the Northeast at 11 percent and eight percent in the North Central (Midwest).
Components of Population Change: Major Metropolitan Areas
The dominance of the South was even greater when we turn to net domestic migration between Census Bureau regions. Nearly 785,000 more people moved to the major metropolitan areas of the South from other parts of the country than left. A much smaller 170,000 net domestic migrants moved to major metropolitan areas in the West. At the same time the Northeast lost 485,000 net domestic migrants and the Midwest lost 280,000.
Perhaps even more remarkable, the South, long a laggard as an immigrant destination, even led in net international migration (666,000 for a 1.2 percent over three years), though the Northeast added 546,000, for a 1.0 percent rate). Net international migration to the West was about the same, some 454,000 for a 1.0 percent rate. The Midwest had the lowest net international migration in the country and well below any other region (280,000, for a 0.6 percent rate), as is indicated in Table 1.
There was a substantial gap in the natural increase (births minus deaths) between the regions as well. The West (2.1 percent relative to the 2010 population over the three years) lead the South (2.0 percent) slightly in rate. Both were well ahead of the Midwest at 1.5 percent and especially the Northeast, at 1.2 percent (Table 1).
Table 1 Components of Population Change by Region Major Metropolitan Areas Total Natural Growth (Births Minus Deaths) Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Northeast 546,742 434,872 (434,029) 545,899 South 2,555,304 1,105,631 783,438 666,235 North Central 398,536 472,017 (280,022) 206,541 West 1,543,319 917,852 171,444 454,023 Change Compared to 2010 Population Northeast 1.5% 1.2% -1.2% 1.5% South 4.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% North Central 1.2% 1.5% -0.9% 0.6% West 3.5% 2.1% 0.4% 1.0% From Census Bureau Data
The New York metropolitan area continues to hold the top position, having added nearly 400,000 residents since 2010 to rise to a population of 19,950,000 residents. At its current rate of growth, New York will exceed a population of 20 million in 2014. There was a time that many expected second-place Los Angeles to overtake New York. However, since 1990 the New York population advantage over Los Angeles has expanded from 6.1 million to 6.8 million, including a further 80,000 advantage built up since 2010 (present geographical definitions). Part of this because much of the growth has been pushed to the more distant Riverside-San Bernardino area.
Los Angeles and Chicago continued to retain the second and third positions, which they seem likely to maintain for decades. Population projections by the National Conference of Mayors indicates strong growth in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston over the next three decades could have them by pass Chicago by 2050. The challenge could be even more immediate, since Chicago’s growth rate over the first three years of the decade is approximately one half the annual rate projected by the US Conference of Mayors between 2012 and 2042.
Late in the last decade, Dallas-Fort Worth passed Philadelphia to become the fourth largest metropolitan area. Then, Philadelphia was passed by Houston in 2011. The result is that, for the first time since the nation’s founding, two of the five largest cities (which are functionally defined as metropolitan areas) are in a single state (Texas).
Philadelphia seems likely to fall further. The strong growth rate of seventh ranked Washington suggests that this nearby rival may also pass Philadelphia as early as 2015. Eighth ranked Miami is growing fast enough that it also could drop Philadelphia a position, to 8th place the 2020 census.
But Philadelphia is not the only metropolitan area in relative decline. Detroit started the decade as the nation’s 12th largest metropolitan area, but has since fallen to 14th. Detroit has been passed by both Riverside-San Bernardino and Phoenix. Phoenix rose 14th to 12th, passing Riverside-San Bernardino (which remained in 13th position) in the process.
Among the 52 major metropolitan areas, Austin has grown at the greatest percentage rate since 2010 with Raleigh was the second fastest growing. Houston was the third fastest growing major metropolitan area over the three year period. Orlando ranked 4th in growth from 2010, while San Antonio was the fifth. The top ten was rounded out by Denver, Washington, Dallas-Fort Worth, Charlotte and Oklahoma City. Thus, among the 10 fastest-growing major metropolitan areas, nine were in the South and one (Denver) was in the West (Table 2).
Table 2 Major Metropolitan Area Population: 2010, 2012 & 2013 Metropolitan Areas 2010 2012 2013 2010-13 2012-13 Atlanta, GA 5,304,197 5,454,429 5,522,942 4.12% 1.26% Austin, TX 1,727,784 1,835,110 1,883,051 8.99% 2.61% Baltimore, MD 2,715,312 2,753,922 2,770,738 2.04% 0.61% Birmingham, AL 1,129,096 1,134,915 1,140,300 0.99% 0.47% Boston, MA-NH 4,564,054 4,642,095 4,684,299 2.63% 0.91% Buffalo, NY 1,135,314 1,133,767 1,134,115 -0.11% 0.03% Charlotte, NC-SC 2,223,635 2,294,990 2,335,358 5.02% 1.76% Chicago, IL-IN-WI 9,470,335 9,514,059 9,537,289 0.71% 0.24% Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 2,117,344 2,129,309 2,137,406 0.95% 0.38% Cleveland, OH 2,075,690 2,064,739 2,064,725 -0.53% 0.00% Columbus, OH 1,906,243 1,944,937 1,967,066 3.19% 1.14% Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,452,758 6,702,801 6,810,913 5.55% 1.61% Denver, CO 2,553,829 2,646,694 2,697,476 5.62% 1.92% Detroit, MI 4,291,400 4,292,832 4,294,983 0.08% 0.05% Grand Rapids, MI 989,196 1,005,493 1,016,603 2.77% 1.10% Hartford, CT 1,214,014 1,214,503 1,215,211 0.10% 0.06% Houston, TX 5,948,689 6,175,466 6,313,158 6.13% 2.23% Indianapolis. IN 1,892,323 1,929,207 1,953,961 3.26% 1.28% Jacksonville, FL 1,349,095 1,378,040 1,394,624 3.37% 1.20% Kansas City, MO-KS 2,013,691 2,038,690 2,054,473 2.03% 0.77% Las Vegas, NV 1,953,106 1,997,659 2,027,868 3.83% 1.51% Los Angeles, CA 12,844,070 13,037,045 13,131,431 2.24% 0.72% Louisville, KY-IN 1,237,851 1,251,538 1,262,261 1.97% 0.86% Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1,326,595 1,340,739 1,341,746 1.14% 0.08% Miami, FL 5,581,524 5,763,282 5,828,191 4.42% 1.13% Milwaukee,WI 1,556,549 1,566,182 1,569,659 0.84% 0.22% Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 3,355,167 3,422,417 3,459,146 3.10% 1.07% Nashville, TN 1,675,945 1,726,759 1,757,912 4.89% 1.80% New Orleans. LA 1,195,757 1,227,656 1,240,977 3.78% 1.09% New York, NY-NJ-PA 19,596,183 19,837,753 19,949,502 1.80% 0.56% Oklahoma City, OK 1,257,883 1,297,397 1,319,677 4.91% 1.72% Orlando, FL 2,139,372 2,223,456 2,267,846 6.01% 2.00% Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,971,397 6,019,533 6,034,678 1.06% 0.25% Phoenix, AZ 4,208,770 4,327,632 4,398,762 4.51% 1.64% Pittsburgh, PA 2,356,658 2,360,989 2,360,867 0.18% -0.01% Portland, OR-WA 2,232,177 2,289,038 2,314,554 3.69% 1.11% Providence, RI-MA 1,601,798 1,601,160 1,604,291 0.16% 0.20% Raleigh, NC 1,137,351 1,188,504 1,214,516 6.78% 2.19% Richmond, VA 1,210,015 1,232,954 1,245,764 2.95% 1.04% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 4,244,089 4,342,332 4,380,878 3.22% 0.89% Rochester, NY 1,080,081 1,082,375 1,083,278 0.30% 0.08% Sacramento, CA 2,154,417 2,193,927 2,215,770 2.85% 1.00% St. Louis,, MO-IL 2,789,893 2,796,506 2,801,056 0.40% 0.16% Salt Lake City, UT 1,091,452 1,123,943 1,140,483 4.49% 1.47% San Antonio, TX 2,153,288 2,234,494 2,277,550 5.77% 1.93% San Diego, CA 3,104,182 3,176,138 3,211,252 3.45% 1.11% San Francisco-Oakland, CA 4,344,584 4,454,159 4,516,276 3.95% 1.39% San Jose, CA 1,842,076 1,892,894 1,919,641 4.21% 1.41% Seattle, WA 3,448,425 3,552,591 3,610,105 4.69% 1.62% Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 2,788,961 2,845,178 2,870,569 2.93% 0.89% Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC 1,680,120 1,698,410 1,707,369 1.62% 0.53% Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,664,789 5,862,594 5,949,859 5.03% 1.49% Major Metropolitan Areas 169,898,524 173,253,232 174,942,425 2.97% 0.97% From Census Bureau Data
Net domestic migration is, not surprisingly, dominated by the major metropolitan areas of the South, especially Texas and Florida. Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston led the nation with more than 100,000 net domestic migrants (Figure $$$). Austin placed third in San Antonio was sixth. Charlotte ranked seventh, while the Florida entries Orlando stood at eighth and Tampa-St. Petersburg at 10th. The West had three big domestic migration lures, Phoenix (4th), Denver (5th), and Seattle (9th).
Austin also led in the percentage of net domestic migration gain relative to its 2010 population. Again, nine of the top gainers were in the South, with one entry from the West, Denver (Figure 2).
The largest net domestic migration losses were more dispersed across the country, with metropolitan areas from every region represented. New York lost the most net domestic migrants (more than 300,000) and was joined by Philadelphia, Hartford, and Providence from the East. Chicago lost the second most domestic migrants (more than 150,000) and was joined by Detroit, St. Louis and Cleveland from the Midwest. Los Angeles ranked third in the bottom 10, losing more than 100,000 net domestic migrants, the only western metropolitan area to suffer a significant migration loss. The South’s only representative in the bottom 10 was Virginia Beach-Norfolk (Figure 3).
Table 3 Major Metropolitan Area Net Migration: 2010 to 2013 Metropolitan Areas Net Domestic Migration Change Relative to 2010 Population Net International Migration Change Relative to 2010 Population Atlanta, GA 44,433 0.84% 49,375 0.93% Austin, TX 87,189 5.05% 15,685 0.91% Baltimore, MD (121) 0.00% 24,366 0.90% Birmingham, AL (2,918) -0.26% 3,585 0.32% Boston, MA-NH 101 0.00% 70,356 1.54% Buffalo, NY (7,774) -0.68% 7,341 0.65% Charlotte, NC-SC 56,478 2.54% 14,590 0.66% Chicago, IL-IN-WI (161,558) -1.71% 69,041 0.73% Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN (16,893) -0.80% 9,703 0.46% Cleveland, OH (28,780) -1.39% 10,837 0.52% Columbus, OH 11,425 0.60% 13,752 0.72% Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 127,315 1.97% 57,403 0.89% Denver, CO 70,668 2.77% 14,160 0.55% Detroit, MI (58,343) -1.36% 30,281 0.71% Grand Rapids, MI 4,594 0.46% 3,290 0.33% Hartford, CT (18,979) -1.56% 15,206 1.25% Houston, TX 116,956 1.97% 74,817 1.26% Indianapolis. IN 13,698 0.72% 12,031 0.64% Jacksonville, FL 16,932 1.26% 9,760 0.72% Kansas City, MO-KS (3,738) -0.19% 9,162 0.45% Las Vegas, NV 17,419 0.89% 19,041 0.97% Los Angeles, CA (125,037) -0.97% 145,101 1.13% Louisville, KY-IN 4,874 0.39% 6,530 0.53% Memphis, TN-MS-AR (13,723) -1.03% 4,868 0.37% Miami, FL 31,750 0.57% 152,998 2.74% Milwaukee,WI (14,282) -0.92% 6,547 0.42% Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 2,664 0.08% 30,341 0.90% Nashville, TN 42,090 2.51% 10,201 0.61% New Orleans. LA 20,721 1.73% 8,727 0.73% New York, NY-NJ-PA (336,566) -1.72% 372,651 1.90% Oklahoma City, OK 30,086 2.39% 6,759 0.54% Orlando, FL 49,244 2.30% 43,230 2.02% Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD (49,564) -0.83% 51,244 0.86% Phoenix, AZ 72,985 1.73% 24,885 0.59% Pittsburgh, PA 7,564 0.32% 8,129 0.34% Portland, OR-WA 30,244 1.35% 15,350 0.69% Providence, RI-MA (17,253) -1.08% 13,365 0.83% Raleigh, NC 38,088 3.35% 10,875 0.96% Richmond, VA 10,777 0.89% 9,542 0.79% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 18,321 0.43% 14,997 0.35% Rochester, NY (11,558) -1.07% 7,607 0.70% Sacramento, CA 6,922 0.32% 17,662 0.82% St. Louis,, MO-IL (28,809) -1.03% 11,556 0.41% Salt Lake City, UT 3,367 0.31% 7,560 0.69% San Antonio, TX 63,391 2.94% 10,778 0.50% San Diego, CA 455 0.01% 35,199 1.13% San Francisco-Oakland, CA 37,157 0.86% 68,510 1.58% San Jose, CA (6,245) -0.34% 41,207 2.24% Seattle, WA 45,188 1.31% 50,351 1.46% Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 45,071 1.62% 28,621 1.03% Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC (17,944) -1.07% 15,650 0.93% Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 32,749 0.58% 107,875 1.90% Total 240,831 0.14% 1,872,698 1.10% From Census Bureau Data
Migration Gains in the Suburbs, Losses in the Core
This year was notable for the virtual absence of the customary “return to the city” stories. In recent years, historical core municipalities have done better in population growth than in the past. In previous decades, some lost large amounts of their population. However, an improving urban environment, not least because of better crime control, has led to something of a residential resurgence, especially in the immediate area of downtowns, though inner core populations (within five miles of City Hall) have continue to decline (see Flocking Elsewhere: The Downtown Growth Story).
Specious claims of a net suburban movement to the cores have been refuted by the domestic migration data. Net domestic migration is reported by the Census Bureau only at the county level. Thus, any analysis of domestic migration between the cores and the suburbs must be county-based. During the Great Recession, domestic migration declined substantially, as is to be expected when the economy is depressed.
Yet, in each of the three years of this decade, suburban counties have experienced net domestic migration gains and in each year have substantially led the core counties. In only one year, 2012, was there a net domestic migration gain in the core counties. The most recent 2013 data shows that core counties experienced a 70,000 net domestic migration loss, while the suburban counties gained 163,000 net domestic migrants. This difference of 233,000 was approximately four times the demographic gains made by the suburbs in both of the previous years Figure 4).
Returning to Normalcy?
With the economy still depressed, it would be premature to declare that the more typical results of the last year presage a return to normalcy. Any such reliable judgment must await restoration of broad-based, job and salary driven – as opposed to asset-based – economic growth. However, the trends of the last year indicate more than anything that the basic patterns of at least the past quarter century – with higher suburban growth and a shift towards the South – to be reasserting themselves.
[Originally published at New Geography]
Storm clouds have been gathering around the Common Core for some time. Until now, most of the critical attention has been on the political ramifications of the program, that it centralizes and federalizes teaching, diminishing the power of parents to participate in the educational process. When the criticism does turn to the content of the curriculum, it usually focuses on social studies, such as Joy Pullmann’s excellent account of the Common Core’s trashing of the Constitution and Founding Fathers. Yet the Common Core’s treatment of math is proving to be even more questionable.
Judging from sample questions, Common Core math tries to reinvent the wheel in terms of the process of teaching. It focuses less on the teaching of problem solving and more on trying to teach overarching concepts. The result is math problems that are startlingly complex.
Teaching complex problem solving may sound like great news at first. Who could object to educating our children to have a deep conceptual understanding of things? After all, we need to keep ahead in the information and technology race with the rest of the world, do we not? The problem with that way of thinking was dealt with succinctly by one parent shocked and frustrated by his child’s Common Core homework assignment:
The problem with the question is that it transforms a subtraction problem that takes a single step to answer using conventional methods into a multi-step problem that only cause confusion. In trying to explain the “deep concept” to a second-grader the problem can serves only to confuse and upset. It seems Common Core is trying a top-down redesign of the whole process of learning, a redesign the complexity of which does not help to educate childrem, but instead leaves them in confused ignorance.
Remarkably, this is not the first time the government has tried just such a redesign of math education. In the 1960s, the government rolled out a very similar curriculum called New Math. New Math was built around the application of Set Theory and employed non-standard numeral systems in the hopes of instilling in students a conceptual understanding of “number.” The idea was that by ingraining a deep conceptual understanding of math, more advanced math knowledge could be taught more widely.
The impetus for the change in math education was a perceived knowledge gap in the late 1950s in the hard sciences and engineering between the United States and the Soviet Union. With the launch of Sputnik, American politicians and civic leaders began to fret that the Soviets were overtaking America in technical proficiency and came to believe that this gap would lead to devastating consequences for America in the Cold War. New Math was meant to build up the knowledge base of the American youth in order to compete.
Common Core math has been rolled out under very similar circumstances. Again America is facing a rising geopolitical foe, this time in the shape of China, a country which is experiencing frighteningly swift economic and technological growth. Much as New Math was meant to transform the educational system in order to compete with the perceived superiority of the Soviet system, so too is the Common Core meant to challenge the technical rise of China and other developing powers.
Yet New Math, somewhat unsurprisingly, failed miserably to catch on. It came under immediate criticism from educators, parents, and concerned citizens. Perhaps one of the most well remembered criticisms was delivered by the legendary mathematician and singer Tom Lehrer, whose song “New Math” was a raucous take-down of the absurdities of New Math (see video above).
One reason New Math failed to work was that teachers had to be entirely reeducated themselves in order to understand the complexity of the teaching methodology. Who would have thought that second-grade math teachers would not all have a working knowledge of Set Theory?
Another reason New Math failed was that the underlying premise, that broad-based high-level and practical mathematical knowledge could only be gained through deep conceptual understandings, was, and is, false. The parent who critiqued his child’s homework question understood this full well when he wrote, “In the real world, simplification is valued over complication.” This is the living truth of the technical engineering profession. Often trying to find simple mechanisms for how things work is much more effective and illuminating than is trying to find complex formulas for why they work. That certainly holds true in the early stages of education.
New Math failed and yet America was not buried under the tide of Communism. In fact, America’s technical edge only grew as the Cold War progressed. New Math failed, and Common Core math will fail, because the system they advocate does not take into account real world application and seeks to address a problem that does not exist. The problem of flagging math scores is not the methodology of teaching, but the entrenched power structures within the public education system.
The way to improve our country’s math scores is not to reinvent math, but to reform the teaching system at the administrative level. Tearing down corrosive traditions like tenure and seniority would go much farther to improve teaching than teaching Set Theory to elementary schoolers ever could.
“Once an activist, always an activist.”
– The Activist’s Handbook: 1000 Ways to Politically and Socially Activate Your Life, Revolutionary Books, 2012.
You can’t separate the organic movement from the anti-GMO movement. They are one and the same, existing in perfect anti-technological symbiosis. What’s bad for GMOs is good for organics and vice versa.
With GMO labeling initiatives underway in 26 out of 50 states, and a global campaign to stop life-saving GM Golden Rice from being approved, you’re supposed to believe the leaders of the multibillion-dollar organic industry are just watching innocently from the sidelines. Nothing could be further from the truth. Once an activist, always an activist. And when Democratic State Senator Noreen Evans claims her GMO labeling bill – an idea that Californians already defeated once – is “agnostic on whether GMOs are good, or whether they are bad,” she’s lying. Since when do politicians label things for no reason?
The “GMO Free Mendocino” campaign was launched in Senator Evans’ district by Els Cooperrider, a founding member of the The Mendocino Organic Network, who succeeded in 2004 not merely in banning GMOs in Mendocino County, but in having all GMO crops destroyed by order of a federal judge. With the “organic” cause as the backbone of Cooperrider’s agricultural pogrom, Mendocino instantly became Grand Central for all subsequent anti-GMO movements.
Of course, organic activists like Cooperrider are opposed to a lot of things: synthetic fertilizer, pesticides, antibiotics, to name but a few. And yet, all these substances combined do not come close to the opposition reserved for GMOs.
And how exactly does one process Greenpeace’s campaign to abandon up to 500,000 children who go blind every year in the developing world from Vitamin-A deficiency? Only with vague arguments taken straight from Cooperrider’s manifesto, warning of as-yet unknown, unspecified risks to human health, the environment and organic farming. Greenpeace has succeeded in keeping GMO Vitamin-A enriched Golden Rice from being approved for humanitarian use in spite of support for this life-saving crop from the Bill and Melinda Gate Foundation and many other charitable organizations.
Still think Sen. Evans is agnostic on GMOs?
The science of genetic engineering gave diabetics synthetic human insulin which replaced insulin from slaughtered pigs. Try to imagine someone blocking genetically-synthesized human insulin, or labeling it to encourage use of the “organic” alternative. It’s unthinkable given the high rate of diabetes in North America and Europe.
Whether they seek to ban or label GMOs, organic activists are pretending to protect consumers for their own good even though no negative effect has ever been observed from any approved GM food. Meanwhile, these very same people insist only that synthetic fertilizer, pesticides and antibiotics not be used on organic farms. They do not demand bans or labels on conventional crops grown with these approved substances.
But for all the half-baked arguments against Golden Rice along with demands for the useless labeling of foods that have contained GMO ingredients for close to 20 years now, the fact is that organic and Greenpeace activists actually need GMOs. They’re quite content to continue to “co-exist” right alongside their avowed arch nemesis because it provides a vital element to their continued existence as activists.
This is why labeling campaigns have all but replaced campaigns to ban GMOs just 10-short years after Cooperrider’s runaway “success.” It also explains, incidentally, why outwardly anti-GMO Europe routinely accepts huge shipments of GM crops from America for livestock feed. Banning GMOs is the last thing on organic politicians’ and activists’ minds. They just want to control GMOs, and to that end labeling provides the perfect balance.
GMOs will remain in circulation to scare consumers, while growth in the GMO sector is severely limited under a labeling regime, so much so that fewer and fewer corporations will develop new GMO crops, thus guaranteeing that this still untapped field of science never becomes fully accepted by the masses. Existing GMO crops will continue to either be highly restricted as in Europe, or labeled like a package of cigarettes here in America, while a new crop like Golden Rice is just best left on the back burner while every possible angle on its side-effects is studied to death… literally!
It’s like the joke about the drunk looking for a contact lens under a lamppost outside a bar one night. A passerby stops to lend a hand, and after 20 minutes finally asks, “Are you sure you lost it under this lamppost?” The drunk replies, “No… it was that one over there.” The passerby is stunned. “Then why are we looking under this lamppost?” To which the drunk replies, “Because the light’s better!”
Meanwhile, rather than test organic crops to ensure they’re free of synthetic fertilizer, pesticides and antibiotics, voluntary record-keeping and record-checking is relied upon to supposedly keep all those substances out of premium-priced organic food. Then, before anyone notices this is nothing more than a multibillion-dollar honor-based marketing scheme, the leaders of the organic industry move quickly to where the light is better, attacking GMOs as “Frankenfoods,” accompanied by constant chatter about GMOs contaminating organic crops. It turns out there’s no such thing as “contamination” of an organic crop by GMOs.
Such “contamination” – when it occurs at all – has always been well below one-one-hundredth of a percentage point. More to the point, if they were worried about GMOs “contaminating” organic fields, why didn’t anti-GMO organic activists say so in their own standards for organic production, standards which they quite literally wrote themselves!
Clearly, anti-GMO organic activists were utterly unconcerned with GMOs right from the get-go, only deciding it was expedient to feign concern over GMO “contamination” long after the rules were established, after billions of dollars in certified-organic royalties had been collected by these activists to fund their cause. Meanwhile, studies show pesticide contamination-levels in excess of 40 percent in certified-organic products. Maybe read that sentence again if you buy organic food.
Now you know why GMO labeling initiatives, along with Greenpeace’s campaign to keep Golden Rice from reaching some very needy people, always point to the harm GMOs supposedly inflict on organic farmers. Examples are never provided. How curious. Curiouser still that reporters never ask for examples. Why, it’s almost as if reporters have never bothered to read America’s organic standards. Maybe read this paragraph again if you’re a reporter.
Labeling, as opposed to banning, makes the light all the brighter under the anti-GMO organic lamppost. And with the exception of Golden Rice – the exception that proves the rule – organic activists will never again seek to have GMOs banned as they were in Mendocino. GMOs represent a highly effective straw man for organic activists, driving revenues for Greenpeace and the global organic movement to fund yet more misguided, tax-subsidized anti-GMO campaigns.
Organic activists need GMOs the same way the Soviets needed decadent America during the Cold War. Without something plausible, never mind credible, to stand opposed to, they would collapse under the unverifiable weight of their own propaganda. Of course, as with the Cold War, innocent civilians will be sacrificed on the road to Utopia. In this case, it’s a couple million people a year in the Third World dying from Vitamin-A deficiency, along with up to 500,000 kids going blind.
When warlords and organic-munching environmentalists conspire to commit genocide in far off lands, at least the warlords don’t pretend it’s for the good of the planet.
[First posted at the Daily Caller.]
The population of the U.S. is 314 million. On the day Obamacare was passed, the estimate of the uninsured was 60 million. So in this context, the supposed 7 million Americans signed up for insurance on the Obamacare Exchanges, even if that is a valid number, and all of those have actually started paying premiums, both of which are highly dubious, does not mean any significant success for Obamacare.
That is especially so since at least 6 million Americans have lost their health insurance due to Obamacare, so far, with more to come once the illegally and arbitrarily delayed employer mandate becomes effective, if it is ever allowed to do so. The estimate based on a new Rand Corporation study is that only 858,000 Americans signed up on the Obamacare Exchanges were previously uninsured. That is barely a dent of just over 1% in the original number of uninsured, from the historic Obamacare program that was supposed to provide “universal” coverage.
Yes, there are other sources of coverage under Obamacare. President Obama told us in his celebratory, hocus pocus, Obamacare address on April Fools’ Day that “more than 3 million young adults have gained insurance under this law by staying on their family’s plan.”
But that number is a publicly documented fabrication. It comes from a 2010 survey by the highly politicized Department of Health and Human Services estimating coverage for 19 to 25 year olds from all sources, including taxpayer financed Medicaid, and private insurance, which includes employer provided insurance and individually purchased plans, not just coverage from their parents’ health insurance, as David Hogberg explained at Spectator.org on April 2.
Moreover, that data is now outdated, as later HHS surveys show that health coverage for 18 to 25 year olds has since declined from 2010, Hogberg adds. That is why HHS has not released any new data on the point for almost two years now.
In addition, Hogberg further demonstrates based on 2012 data from the far less politicized Census Bureau, which breaks out data for Medicaid and employer provided health insurance, that the number of young adults gaining coverage on their parents’ health insurance under Obamacare totals at most 258,000.
In any event, the virtue of this young adult dependency on their parents’ health insurance is greatly exaggerated. That coverage is not free. The parents are paying more for it. Moreover, these young adults are not helpless, with no alternatives for health insurance. They can get their own jobs with employer provided health insurance. Or at least they could if Obama was not President. Or they could buy their own health insurance in the market, with help from their parents, if that is needed and desired. Young adults under 26 are the least in need of health insurance, and have the least trouble getting it. The healthiest population in America, they are targeted under Obamacare as lambs to be fleeced for funds to finance health care for others.
President Obama in his April Fools’ Day speech also cited “millions more who have gained access through Medicaid expansion.” But they cannot be included among the “millions of Americans [who] finally had the same chance to buy quality, affordable health care—and the peace of mind that comes with it—as everybody else.” That is because Medicaid is a taxpayer financed, welfare program, so those covered by it are not buying anything. Moreover, Medicaid does not provide “quality” health care, because it pays so little to the doctors and hospitals providing the actual health care for the poor, that many, especially the best, won’t take patients on Medicaid. Simply expanding Medicaid to cover ultimately 100 million Americans at taxpayer expense does not qualify as any sort of achievement.
But there were other howlers in Obama’s April Fools’ Day address. He told the American people that “Because of [Obamacare], 100 million Americans have gained free preventive care, like mammograms and contraceptive care, under their existing plans.” Here we have a President of the United States who does not understand that when the government requires health insurers to provide additional benefits, the cost of their health insurance has to go up, just to ensure the insurer has enough money to pay all the covered benefits. So there is nothing “free” about Obamacare’s required preventive care.
There are high school students who understand such basic economic reasoning better than the President. Of course, there are many adults who voted for him who cannot. Those are the people the President is counting on, and who are actually the ones who are most responsible for the long term, rapid decline America is now suffering.
Another more than dubious statement by the President on April Fools’ Day was that “a whole lot of families won’t be driven into bankruptcy by a serious illness, because [Obamacare] prevents your insurer from placing dollar limits on the coverage they provide.” A whole lot of families? Where is the documentation of that? I dispute that “a whole lot of families” were being driven into bankruptcy by the dollar limits on their health coverage before Obamacare.
Of course, again the President doesn’t understand that removing dollar limits on the coverage means the cost of that coverage must be higher. And that is the more so the more families were reaching those dollar limits before. The actual effect of the Obamacare dollar limit ban is that consumers are denied the freedom of making the choice themselves of whether they want to pay more for coverage without any dollar limit. That is because Obama and his “Progressives” are so certain that they know better than everyone else what that choice should be.
But the biggest howler in Obama’s April Fools’ Day speech was that, “Under [Obamacare], the share of Americans with health insurance is up and the growth of health costs is down.” Whether the ultimate effect of Obamacare will be to reduce or increase the uninsured is highly uncertain at this time. The employer mandate has been delayed until after the elections because the President knows the effect in terminating current coverage is going to be ugly. What is certain now is that Obamacare won’t get America anywhere near universal coverage, as Obama led the Left to believe was the whole point of the exercise.
But more obviously false is the notion that Obamacare has driven the growth of health costs down. As I explained in a previous column, the decline in the growth of health costs started in 2003, when Health Savings Accounts were enacted, and Obama was still an Illinois state senator. As the number of people with HSA plans rose to 30 million over the years, the decline in health cost growth became sharper. Obamacare just went into effect, and here is our President taking credit for a health cost trend that started over a decade ago.
Unlike Obamacare, HSAs provide proven market incentives to reduce health costs. The only effect of Obamacare on health costs so far has been to increase them, due to costly overregulation. And contra Obama, that is not good for the middle class, or our fiscal future. Unless Obamacare actually reduces overall health coverage by increasing the uninsured, and the deductibles most covered people face, that cost increasing effect will become more obvious over time. But Obama will be gone by then, virulently opposing any change in his brilliant law from the private sector.
But Obama doesn’t get it. He said further on April Fools’ Day, Obamacare is:
… helping people from coast to coast, all of which makes the lengths to which some critics have gone to scare people or undermine the law, or try to repeal the law without offering any plausible alternative so hard to understand. I’ve got to admit, I don’t get it. Why are folks working so hard for people not to have health insurance?
Many readers are not going to understand this. But my job here is to tell the truth, not to play politically correct footsie with you. What our President is telling us here, actually, is that he has so carefully avoided hearing any of the debate on this issue, that he actually does not understand the issue, on which he imagines himself as the historic founding father of American health care.
The plan I support to replace Obamacare, root and branch, is the reform proposal developed by John Goodman, President of the National Center for Policy Analysis. That proposal, unlike Obamacare, actually would ensure universal health care. But it would do so at far less cost. It would do so, again unlike Obamacare, while actually reducing health costs. That proposal is actually far more plausible than Obamacare, which has already proven itself implausible in the real world. That is why Obama has already acted to change the enacted Obamacare law without the approval of Congress, in violation of the Constitution and his own oath of office.
But Obama continued, “Many of the tall tales that have been told about this law have been debunked. There are still no death panels.” Mr. Obama, the death panel in the law is called the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB). You have carefully avoided appointing members to this board and making it operative, until after the mid-term elections.
He knows what he is doing here, but not what he is talking about. Obama added further:
And those who have based their entire political agenda on repealing it should have to explain why Jeane should go back to being uninsured. They should explain why Sean and his family should go back to paying thousands and thousands of dollars more. They’ve got to explain why Marla doesn’t deserve to feel like she has value. They have to explain why we should go…back to the days when Americans with preexisting conditions were out of luck—they could be routinely denied the economic security of health insurance—because that is exactly what would happen if we repeal this law. Millions of people who now have health insurance would not have it.
But none of that would happen under the Goodman/NCPA reform plan I support. I explained that reform plan in a previous column. Look that up, or go to ncpa.org to find it. Again, what this demonstrates is that Obama, so carefully cloistered his whole life in his own ideological cell, is so disconnected from reality that he does not actually understand health policy issues.
But the harsh reality of how Obamacare works, or actually doesn’t work, is demonstrated by the story of Frank Alfisi, who died on January 14, 2014, at age 73, a victim of Obamacare, as explained by Jeffrey Lord at Spectator.org on April 1. Frank lived in a seniors’ apartment complex in Wantagh, Long Island, near the family of his daughter Amy.
While he was successfully treated with chemotherapy for 8 years for multiple myeloma, the chemo caused kidney failure. But Frank was fine as long as he could receive kidney dialysis three times a week. The problem began when he missed a dialysis appointment one day because he was ill with a stomach virus.
The next day, he was feeling very ill because of the toxin buildup in his body missing just one day without the scheduled dialysis. He called an ambulance, which took him to the nearby hospital to get his treatment. But under a new Medicare regulation, required by Obamacare, Frank could not receive the dialysis unless he was admitted as an inpatient for at least two days. Dialysis, however, does not require even one overnight stay. After the treatment, which takes a few hours, the patient can go home.
The doctors knew Frank could not go home without his dialysis. So they kept running tests on him to find some reason to admit him, under Medicare regulations. Around 8:30 that night, Frank’s blood pressure was so high because of the lack of dialysis that he had a seizure, still in the hospital emergency room, still not admitted, so he still could not receive the dialysis. Later that night he had a second seizure, and was unconscious for two days in the ER, still without any dialysis. His doctor told his daughter Amy, “You can thank Mr. Obama for this.” The death by Obamacare has already begun.
After that second seizure, Frank was transferred for rehab in the hope he would recover well enough to get his dialysis, first to Gurwin Jewish medical center, and then to Parker Jewish. But Frank could never get his dialysis, and died while in that rehab. He was “covered,” by Medicare, but because of Obamacare, and its cuts to Medicare to finance Obamacare, Frank was denied the actual straightforward health care that would save his life. In my interpretation, Frank Alfisi was murdered by Obamacare. This was what Sarah Palin was talking about when she used the term “death panels.”
There are other examples of cancer patients losing their health insurance that was financing the doctors keeping them alive, because the insurance did not satisfy Obamacare requirements. Edie Littlefield Sundby had health insurance that spent $1.2 million on health care for her stage 4 gall bladder cancer, as she explained in the Wall Street Journal. That plan included first rate doctors from her hometown of San Diego, to Stanford University’s Cancer Institute, and the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, that kept her alive for 7 years. But that plan was cancelled under Obamacare, forcing her insurer United Healthcare out of California altogether. So much for President Obama’s promise, “If you like your health insurance, you can keep it.”
Sundby and her health insurance consultants could not find another plan in the highly touted California Obamacare Exchange that includes those same doctors, at any price. So down went another Obamacare promise, “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor?” But Harry Reid tells us that all such examples of Obamacare failure are lies. Tell that to Frank’s daughter Amy. I dare you.
Further, similar examples have now been published as well. But the tragedy of Obamacare extends beyond health care.
Obamacare has been a major drag on the economy, preventing full recovery from the recession. Employers trying to avoid the costs of the employer mandate have reduced many full time jobs to part time jobs. Or they have frozen hiring, and the associated costs due to Obamacare. This is contributing to income stagnation and decline for the middle class, the working class, and the poor. And it is actually increasing inequality.
The new taxes of Obamacare are also deterring job creating investment, or capital investment that would increase worker productivity, and consequently wages and incomes. The costly regulatory burdens of Obamacare are increasing rather than reducing health insurance costs, which is a further drag on the economy.
The alternative, John Goodman, NCPA plan would achieve universal health care, with no employer mandate, no individual mandate, reduced taxes and spending, and sharply reduced regulatory burdens and costs as compared to Obamacare. All of that would be sharply pro-growth, and promote more jobs, and higher wages.
But Obama says that would not be a plausible alternative. The real problem is that he is not plausible as President. Only once he leaves the White House can the American economy be liberated to grow, and American health care be liberated to once again serve the sick, especially the most sick and in need of health care.
[First posted at Forbes.]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out with a report that indicates we are all living on borrowed time as far as the global warming situation goes. There is no way I am going to cede the term “climate change” to them since the climate is always in a state of change. That ploy is simply a smokescreen because of how bad they busted with the hysteria they were whipping up about the globe warming. They should be held accountable for what they said, and not simply co-opt a redundant term that is a natural fact.
But I wish to show you an example of how I can link a natural event to the downturn in tropical activity and the global temperature – and it’s because I need to know these things that I can formulate a theory on it that is better than one that is obviously, over the last 17 years and 6 months, completely disconnected with reality. It was them, not us, that put out models that have busted.
As you will see below, the cooling has continued.
My theory is simple to understand: The global temperature responds to the great thermostat known as the oceans, and most importantly, the tropical oceans give us a huge clue as to where temperatures are heading. As Dr. Bill Gray correctly discovered back in the 1970s, the vast three-dimensional circulation of the earth’s oceans is one that has its origin not in recent events, but in a period of many years, decades, and even centuries of action and reaction of a planet in constant search of a balance it can never have because of its very design. The unmoved mover of the climate? The design of the system: More land in the Northern Hemisphere than southern; a wobble on its axis creating seasons; an open ocean at its northern pole (covered in ice) but a continent making up its southern pole; and so on and so on. It is incapable of attaining a perfect balance.
Once again here’s the reference to Dr. William Gray’s paper.
The peak of the Pacific warming arguably occurred with the super nino of 1997-1998 as the La nina behind it was long lived. There was a response to warmer again in the mid-2000s, before what could be termed a true cold Pacific Decadol Oscillation was finally christened shortly after.
But let me ask you this: If you look at Dr. Vincent Gray’s record of CO2 and temperatures, can you see any linkage between CO2 and the earth’s temperature in the geological time scale?
Can you see in recent times the splitting away of temperatures (unforecasted by the IPCC, and even worse, being used now in EPA endangerment findings to form policy on energy) from CO2?
Now let’s look at the temperature since the atmosphere arguably adjusted to the warming Pacific, seen here in the Multivariate Enso Index plots, a measure of the warmth or coolness of the regions that determine the state of the El Nino or La Nina. Notice how warm the ENSO regions were in the ’80s and ’90s, and how they are going back to where they were in the ’50s and ’70s now.
Now look at the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) CFSR global temps. since 2005, or the peak of the overall warming of the ENSO areas of the Pacific in the longer term. (NCEP is not a right wing think tank.)
They have started a downward drift!
Now link this to the Global ACE index which is the gold standard of measuring tropical activity, from Dr. Ryan Maue.
The peak was reached while the Pacific was in its warmest state and similar to the downturn in the ocean and the global temperature, clearly shown above. It has retreated to the low levels we see now!
Let’s look at the 400 mb level specific humidity in the warm PDO years of 1980-2005. This is a level that is crucial in the tropics. If it’s moist, the low level waves that become storms are able to develop vertically in a non-hostile environment. Quite simply put, the more moist the air is, the more conducive the atmosphere is for development. (Bluish colors represent moisture.)
Now look at the plummeting ACE years since the Pacific turned colder.
It has dried tremendously! This means wet bulb temperatures are lower at crucial levels in the tropics, and storms have to “work harder” to combat dry air to form. It’s exactly opposite of the propaganda that was spewed in an Inconvenient Truth; exactly opposite of what you have been told about so-called “trapping hot spots” (another EPA holy grail in the lines of evidence that is completely wrong); exactly opposite of what was forecasted by these people; and *opposite of the panic buttons they are trying to push.
What was it Einstein said?
“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.”
In this case, it is I who have put forth the theory that should now be challenged, because it has a much greater chance of standing up to Einstein’s statement than the obviously incorrect assumption by people now trying to ramp up even further their hysteria over a ghost that time after time is proven to be gone.
You have to understand, you must do the work to give yourself a chance to be right. There is no assurance that just because you work hard, you are going to win; but you improve your chance. Have you seen any of the so-called Giants of Climate Science alarmists doing this? Of course not. Do you see them looking at the direct contradictions to their ideas and having the humility to back off or even question them?
It’s my business to know these things. The wading into the climate fight is because I am constantly looking at this. These observations form a simple, easy to understand theory: The atmosphere warms because the oceans have the most bang for the buck. Simply look at the mixing ratios on a skew T chart and notice that a 1 degree movement at an 80 wet bulb needs something like a 15-20 F degree movement at around 0F to counter it. Once the atmosphere adapted to the warming ocean, a peak was reached, but as nature will do, the swing back started. It was like pulling the rug out from under the feet of the driver of the higher global ACE index and the natural driver of the warming that had taken place. You don’t have to believe it. I may not be right, but it’s a heck of a lot clearer linkage and theory given the complete disconnect from CO2 and global temperatures. Alarmists have obviously have not looked at this because it really does not mean to them what it does to someone that needs to be right to have any chance to survive in this field. Or if they do, they simply ignore it because whatever message they want to spout does not agree.
I think all of us will agree that, at the very least, for the past 10 years, there is linkage to the Pacific flipping its cycle, the drying over the tropics and the cooling of the global temperature and the falling ACE index. Nowhere did anyone pushing this global warming agenda have any inkling this was going to happen.
As the globe adjusts to cooling there should be a re-firing of the ACE, likely to start in the southwest Pacific first. In fact, though the Atlantic and southeast Pacific ace may be below average this year, the southwest Pacific is likely to be above, But when major cyclones hit – and they will – do not buy the climatic ambulance chasers’ idea that this is the worst ever. Not only is this an absolute falsehood, but they have no idea of what is really going on to drive this.
More and more we are living in a world that is a house of cards built on deception. The people doing the deceiving are smart enough to know how to manipulate those that choose to simply accept rather than actually look – a shame given what could be, and what is actually turning into a painful self-inflicted demise. Climate and weather are a prime example, and there is no better example than the nonsense about tropical cyclones.
[Originally published at The Patriot Post]
On March 31, the New York Times featured an article by Justin Gillis titled “Panel’s Warning on Climate Risk: Worst is Yet to Come.” The story reported findings in the just released UNIPCC Working Group II report “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaption, and Vulnerability.”
The 44-page Summary For Policymakers defines the words climate change as follows:
Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes.
Thus the words climate change in the UNIPCC Report is changes in climate due to human-caused atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. This ignores the fact climate change has occurred over the 4.5 billion-year history of the planet. Natural forces causing climate change such as solar sunspots, earth’s orbit changes, ocean currents, volcanoes, etc. are considered unimportant during the period of increased fossil-fuel produced carbon dioxide from mid-20th century to present time. This is a serious distortion of the definition of the words climate change.
Correspondent Gillis wrote, “In particular, the report emphasized that the world’s food supply is at a considerable risk—a threat that could have serious consequences for the poorest nations.” He also wrote, “Studies have found that parts of the Mediterranean region are drying out because of climate change, and some experts believe that droughts there have contributed to political destabilization in the Middle East and North Africa.”
Can global warming due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide be a serious threat to the food supply? Carbon dioxide is an airborne fertilizer that increases leaf growth and root sizes that makes crops more tolerant to drought. Food growth since mid-20th century has increased drastically due to population growth from 2.5 billion to 7 billion. It may be the increase in carbon dioxide from 310 ppm to today’s 400 ppm is the reason we are able to feed 7 billion.
The article said there is a decrease in food supply due to climate change. This may be true due to foolish efforts to make biofuels from food fuels — corn and soybeans. In the U. S. alone, 5 billion bushels of corn have been used annually for several years to make ethanol from corn. Over one billion bushels of soy beans have been used to make biodiesel. The U. S. waste of food crops for biofuels could feed hundreds of millions. It is estimated world-wide crop use for biofuels could feed 500 million. lThus foolish efforts to mitigate climate change are costing the public dearly as well as other efforts to replace coal, oil, and natural gas with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. All this due to attempts at mitigating a non-existent problem of global warming caused by fossil fuel’s carbon dioxide emissions.
Food diverted to making biofuels caused substantial price increases. The overthrow of the Egyptian and other North African governments in early 2011 called the Arab Spring is blamed on the high cost of food in those countries leading to political unrest among the poor without hope.
Mr. Gillis also wrote, “The report also cited the possibility of violent conflict over land, water, or other resources, to which climate change might contribute indirectly ‘by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.’”
Past history shows the earth progressed for thousands of years through cycles of warming and cooling of approximate 500-year duration. The present cycle is called the Current Warming Period which started in 1850. This cycle was preceded by the Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1850. Historians note the Little Ice Age was a period of much misery. War was conducted over land and resources with names 100 Years War, 30 Years War, Napoleonic Wars — just to name a few. Human health suffered through events like the Bubonic Plague that wiped out one-quarter to one-half the population of Europe. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels remained the same from 1000 AD until about 1900. If climate change was a cause for these events, it had to be natural causes.
Another citation by Mr. Gillis, “The oceans are rising at a pace that threatens coastal communities and are becoming more acidic as they absorb some of the carbon dioxide given off by cars and power plants….”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) displays a website that show tidal gauge measurements covering over 150 years for 128 U. S. locations and another 112 locations covering the rest of the world. Examining the data shows sea level rises range from 1 to 3 mm per year at most locations or 4 inches to 12 inches per century. Examination of sea level rise the past 20 years, when the greatest increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has taken place, show the rate of rise is decreasing compared to the first half of the 20th century. Residents of Miami Beach have no greater fear of losing their property the next fifty years as those who built the homes in the early 20th century.
Lord Matt Ridley wrote for The Spectator: “We have a new climate change consensus –and its good news everyone.” He noticed that in many locations in the IPCCC reports were remarks about adapting to threats of climate change which are less expensive and disruptive than attempts at mitigation by replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon dioxide emitting energy sources or other techniques.
Adapting can be as simple as using hurricane anchors in home construction in areas threatened by hurricanes or tornados. Mitigation is the proposed abandoning the world’s abundant sources of coal, oil, and natural gas that are relatively inexpensive and spread throughout the planet. Alternative energy sources are more expensive, less reliable, less mobile, and require great land areas that make them impossible to scale up to the demands of a prosperous planet. Abandoning fossil fuels leave no hope for developing nations to rise above poverty and insures great sacrifices in life’s pleasures for developed nations.
Justin Gillis most likely based his New York Times article on press releases about the Yokohama meeting to decide the wording for the Summary for Policymakers, portions of the Summary for Policymakers, and interviews with those promoting a United Nations-led movement to regulate fossil fuel use. This would produce an article describing a scary future and demands for immediate actions to stop carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
A more common sense examination of the actual Report may lead to the conclusions of Matt Ridley that adaptation is the route for preparing for the most certain climate change that will occur naturally in spite of futile wishes for some to control the uncontrollable. Perhaps the wording for Justin Gillis article could be written “U. N. Panel Decides Adaption Policy For Climate Change and Abolish the UNIPCC.”
Mike Flannery, the legendary political editor for Fox Chicago News, called me up late Wednesday afternoon looking for comment about the McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission decision on campaign finance law handed down from the U.S. Supreme Court. I applaud Flannery for bringing balance in his story to counter the kind of apoplectic reactions that were common in the media that day.
The framers of the Constitution established the First Amendment primarily to protect political speech. Financial contributions to political candidates or organizations that are overtly political is a form of political speech. So, as I said on camera, the McCutcheon decision was a victory for the First Amendment. I said a lot of other stuff, too, but the nature of TV news is that you get one sound bite — about five seconds — to get your point across. I’ve done this a lot, and I’m happy with this one. [NOTE: The Heartland Institute is not a political outfit, but is a 501(c) nonprofit educational organization. I was speaking about the principle of the issue. Heartland doesn’t have a dog in that fight.]
I’m grateful for the opportunity to give balance to Flannery’s report, however brief … and despite the fact that I was identified as “Mike Lakely” on screen. The Heartland Institute was identified correctly. That’s all that matters.
Enjoy the clip below. I come in at about the 50-second mark. I especially liked Fox Chicago’s set-up, which noted Barack Obama is “one of” the most prolific political fundraisers in American history. There’s no “one of” required. He’s the champ.
In 2013 the price of gold bullion lost 28 percent and closed near its low for the year. It was the first annual decline since 2000 and the worst since 1981. Gold ETFs experienced record redemptions, shrinking the funds 33 percent by year end, but they were the exception. Marcus Grubb, Managing Director of the World Gold Council, reported, “2013 has been a strong year for gold demand across sectors and geographies, with the exception of western ETF markets.” While investors were leaving ETFs, demand for gold jewelry, bars and coins was increasing, as were purchases by central banks. Globally, consumer demand increased 17 percent for gold jewelry and 28 percent for bars and coins.
The World Gold Council reported:
- 2013 saw the largest volume increase in gold jewelry demand for 16 years.
- Demand for gold bars and coins surged to an all-time high of 1,654.1 t (metric tonnes).
- Annual demand for gold used in technology stabilized at 404.8t, from 407.5t in 2012.
- Net purchases by central banks increased global official gold reserves by 368.6t., the fourth consecutive year of positive demand.
The gold markets in 2013 accelerated a trend in recent years of buyers’ preference for physical possession of gold. Premiums for physical delivery of gold in Shanghai jumped to a staggering $34.82 per ounce. In India the premiums for physical delivery soared above $100 per ounce. At the Comex, total gold available for delivery was drawn down 80 percent by year’s end. In the spring of 2013, ABN-AMRO, the largest Dutch bank, announced it would be unable to deliver physical gold and would instead offer paper gold claims to customers. On April 26, the Chinese Gold & Silver Society in Hong Kong reported it had sold out all its inventory and placed orders in Switzerland four times larger than normal in response to demand.
Jewelry is the largest single category of global demand for gold, accounting for 59 percent. The largest market is China, with India in second place, followed by the U.S. Jewelry demand in 2013 in China increased to 669t from 519t in 2012, and in India to 613t from 552t.
The WGC reports: “Consumers remain key drivers in the demand for gold…Across the world there were large increases for gold in both emerging and developed markets.” Demand for bars and coins in Turkey was up 113%, Thailand up 75%, China up 38%, Indonesia up 36%, and the U.S. up 26%. (The China Gold Association reported consumer demand increased 41%, not 38%.) According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, a precious-metals consulting firm, Chinese exchanges accounted for 22% of gold traded on exchanges in 2013, more than double the 10% of 2012.
Due to the popularity of gold in Asia, the following banks—most of them very large—opened gold vaults in Singapore or Shanghai in 2013: Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG, Barclays PLC, and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Also, Metalor Technologies SA opened its first gold refinery in Singapore in 2013.
Technology represents only about seven percent of world gold demand, but this actually accounted for more gold in 2013 than purchases by all the world’s central banks (404.8t compared to 368.6t). Moreover, this field could grow very rapidly. Historically the principal industrial use for gold was in dentistry, but this has been surpassed by use in the fast-growing electronics industry because of the metal’s excellent conductivity and resistance to corrosion. Those characteristics also makes it the metal of choice for high-technology components in complex and challenging environments, such as the space industry and fuel cells. Gold’s catalytic properties are also beginning to create demand in the automotive sector, in the chemical industry, and in medicine because of the metal’s excellent bio-compatibility.
Platinum, palladium and rhodium are commonly used in catalytic converters in automobiles. Now a stable, effective and commercially viable catalyst can be obtained by combining gold, palladium and platinum. I don’t think anyone expects the automobile industry to decline or reduce its use of catalytic converters.
The whole field of nanotechnology is just opening up. A growing number of patents relating to gold nanotechnology suggests many new catalytic applications for medicine and the environment will be developed in coming years.
Gold can be used for precise delivery of drugs to targets within the human body and to create conducting plastics and specialized pigments. Gold enables certain tests to reliably detect malaria and many other diseases. These tests can be used in developing countries without expensive equipment or supply chains. In Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs), gold nanoparticles drive a color change on a test strip containing a single drop of blood, indicating whether a disease is present. According to the World Health Organization, hundreds of millions of RDTs have already been distributed globally.
Gold nanotechnology research is developing more efficient and accurate ways of delivering cancer treatments. Chemotherapy now widely used in treating cancer can damage healthy cells. Gold nanoparticles can target and destroy cancer cells while leaving healthy tissues largely unaffected. It’s hard to believe this use of gold will not grow significantly in the future.
Gold’s catalytic properties can be used effectively to reduce hazardous emissions to the air as well as remove pollutants from groundwater. A gold and palladium catalyst removes chlorinated compounds.
All the new uses for gold will not diminish the role of gold as a monetary metal, merely add to its value and demand. Gold’s monetary importance will continue to be determined fundamentally by national and international economic factors. Of utmost significance in this regard is the misguided continuation of the U.S. policies of government spending that balloons the national debt and taxation that stymies economic growth.
The promises that Barrack Obama made to get himself elected have proven false, are counter to logic and the lessons of history, and have left this country with a bleak future. It is obvious that the U.S. can never pay all its obligations. Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are going bankrupt, but Obama hasn’t even tried to do anything about them. Instead he proposes more spending—which, together with past obligations to spend more in the future—caused the problem in the first place. He simply made it worse—much worse—and now proposes to do more of the same. The feds spent $2.98 trillion in 2008, but Obama now proposes to spend almost a trillion dollars more ($3.9 trillion) in his budget for the fiscal year beginning October 1. Spending would rise by another $1 trillion by 2020, much of it fueled by the exploding costs of Obamacare, and would reach an astonishing $6 trillion by 2024. That won’t happen. A complete financial collapse will occur long before then.
It was claimed Obama’s economic recovery program of 2009 would produce 4.2% average growth, based on recoveries from previous recessions. But the problem was, “the Obama program did not promote growth, it impeded it,” according to Gramm and Solon. Recovery averaged just 2.2%, less than half the norm for postwar recoveries. Worse, the Congressional Budget Office now says our long-term growth has been permanently weakened, thereby reducing our growth rate to 2.2% for the next decade! Thus, despite all the hoopla about the economy finally turning around and improving, the CBO predicts the next decade will have the same growth rate, 2.2%, as the unimpressive period 2011-2013.
Another recent CBO report shows how slower growth is bleeding the federal government of trillions in revenue. CBO’s 10-year projection shows $4.9 trillion have already been lost due to slower growth since the recession began, and the losses are accelerating.
Obama has proposed about $1 trillion in new taxes over the next ten years, almost all from higher earners. He has learned nothing from the tax cuts by presidents Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy. In both cases, reductions in tax rates resulted in increased tax revenue for the government. When Reagan became president, he reduced the top marginal income tax rate to 28%, from 70%, but when he left office, tax revenues had almost doubled. During this same period, the inflation rate fell to 4% from 13%, unemployment dropped to 5.3% from 7.5%, 17 million new jobs were created, and the longest peacetime boon in our history was underway. When Reagan took office in 1981, the top one percent of income earners paid 17.58% of all federal income taxes. Twenty-five years later, in 2005, that one percent paid 39.38% of all income taxes despite the much lower rate. In the 1960s President Kennedy cut the highest income tax rate to 70% from 91% with a similar result. Obama’s tax ideas are an ideological fantasy out of touch with historical evidence.
Presidents Harding and Coolidge cut federal income taxes several times throughout the 1920s, sharply lowering the top rate in steps to 25% from 73%. As the top tax rates were cut, tax revenues soared, as did the share paid by the rich. Those earning over $100,000 paid 29.9% of the total in 1920, 48.8% in 1925, and 62.2% in 1929. The share of overall taxes paid by top one percent rose from about one-third in the early 1920s to two-thirds in 1928. All this means nothing to Obama because in his view Marxist ideology trumps reality.
Pursuing Karl Marx’s ideology, Obama seeks economic equality through redistribution of wealth. He has declared economic inequality is the “defining challenge of our time…That’s why I ran for president….It drives everything I do in this office.” That’s why he pitches his soak-the-rich tax proposals in the Marxist terms of class warfare and the rich as enemies of the people, impediments to achieving his dream of socialism’s equality.
The U.S. economy is in far worse shape than is generally acknowledged. Now in Obama’s fifth year as president, the labor participation rate is the lowest in 35 years. His expensive economic stimulus and jobs programs have failed. Fifty-seven months after the official end of the Great Recession, fewer Americans have jobs than in December 2007. Furthermore, the so-called recovery has been characterized by downward mobility. During the recession, 60% of job losses were in the middle pay range, 21% were lower. In the recovery, only 22% of new jobs were in the middle range while 58% were in the low end of the scale.
Home sales fell again in February, to the lowest level since July. They declined in six of the last seven months.
Job creation rose in February, which was expected after the poor number in January due to extreme winter weather in parts of the U.S. Even so, the February number of 175,000 new jobs was below the prior 12-month average of 189,000. Furthermore, the average work week (now 34.2 hours) has been declining, resulting in the equivalent net loss of 100,000 jobs since September. This cannot be explained by harsh winter weather because parts of the West, Midwest and South experienced milder than normal weather, and the numbers were already seasonally adjusted. Besides, the work week decline began before winter set in, with declines in hours in September and October.
The unemployment rate is actually about 13%, roughly twice the reported rate, if you include people “marginally attached” to the workforce. At the end of 2013 there were 27.3 million part-time jobs, 18% of the workforce. The reported unemployment rate is deceptive in that it omits those who are not employed but have stopped looking for work.
Government spending has not made Americans richer. The median net worth of American adults in now one of the lowest among developed nations according to Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook. The U.S. figure of $45,000 is less than Australia’s $220,000, France’s $142,000m—and even Greece’s $54,000. The net worth of almost a third of American adults is less than $10,000.
The Federal Reserve has been accommodative of Obama’s spending by providing whatever money is needed by simply creating more of it. There is no limit on the amount it can create because that money is backed by nothing; it is fiat money, paper not backed by gold or any material value. As a result of the Bretton Woods conference in 1944, the U.S. dollar became the world’s reserve currency. Only the dollar was directly pegged to gold, and other countries were required to maintain fixed exchange rates of their currencies to the dollar. The U.S. agreed to maintain dollar-gold convertibility for foreign central banks. President Nixon ended that convertibility in 1971, after which there has been no limit on the amount of money the Fed can create.
As a result, the U.S. began producing enormous trade deficits. Other countries would send us TV sets, washing machines, refrigerators, cameras, tools and compact fluorescent light bulbs, and we would send them more paper dollars. They would send us clothes, iphones, computers, shoes, toasters, tires and just about everything else, and we would pay for them with fiat dollars created by the Federal Reserve. Those dollars would be recycled back to the U.S. by foreign governments using their accumulating dollars to buy U.S. treasury securities—in effect, the U.S. was borrowing back the dollars, which were then used for more spending and increasing the federal debt.
Economy didn’t matter any more. The system facilitated any amount of uneconomic expenditures by passing the cost to future generations by simply adding it to their tab: a growing national debt. It became the ultimate way for politicians to redistribute wealth: steal it from future generations who have no vote in the matter, and distribute it now to voters who will put you in office or keep you there.
The system cannot continue indefinitely. Nobody can ever get out of debt by borrowing successively larger sums to cover successively larger debts. Neither can governments. Eventually debts are repaid or the borrower goes bankrupt. According to the International Monetary Fund, meeting America’s obligations will require an immediate and permanent 35% increase in all taxes and a 35% cut in all government benefits. That’s not going to happen. It can’t happen. Instead America will undergo a financial collapse. By 2025, entitlement spending and debt payments are projected to consume all federal revenue. And having the Fed print vastly more money to pay our obligations will not solve the problem; it will merely bring inflation that destroys the value of the dollar.
For five years the Fed has been engaging in “quantitative easing”—printing money—at rates as high has $85 billion per month—over $1 trillion per year. Recently that has been reduced to $65 billion per month. The Fed is not the only central bank engaging in quantitative easing. Central banks all over the world have been doing so to try to stimulate their economies and placate voters that they are “doing something.” The Fed, the European Central bank and the central banks of Japan, Switzerland and China have printed well over $10 trillion since 2007, more than tripling the size of their combined balance sheets.
Japan was the latest of the major central banks to reach its “Havenstein moment,” a moment already reached by the other central banks just mentioned. It is the moment when the person in charge of the money supply decides that massive printing of money is better than the alternative, that it is preferable to deflation. Rudolf Havenstein was the head of German Central Bank (Reichsbank) from 1908 to 1923 and presided over the great hyperinflation in Germany. The newly elected government in Japan stated in May 2013 that it aimed to improve the economy with 2 percent inflation by doubling the money supply. It said it will engage in “unlimited” or “open ended” printing of money to achieve that goal.
With all the fiat money being printed by central banks all over the world, it should be no surprise that people all over the world have been exchanging it for gold. They see it as more likely to retain value than paper currencies, which they fear could result in either uncontrollable inflation or a bursting of the monetary credit/debt bubble and catastrophic collapse.
The latter is what happened in 1929, following the credit expansion of the money supply in the 1920s. The excess credit found an outlet in the stock market. A similar expansion of credit in the mortgage/housing industry created a bubble that burst bringing on the Great Recession of recent years. Will the huge amount of money the Fed has been creating since 2007 find a similar outlet in those industries? The stock market has been making all-time highs, and the Fed’s policy of near zero interest rates has driven money from safer investments into stocks in search of higher returns. And while the Fed was buying $85 billion per month in bonds, $40 billion of that was in mortgage backed securities in an effort to goose home buying and employment in home building. So the stock market and the housing industry may be “bubble” candidates.
There are, or course, other possibilities which could upset the precarious financial position the United States has created for itself with its spending and debt problems. The most intriguing relates to the increasing demand of gold buyers to take physical delivery of gold.
As we noted, the amount of gold eligible for delivery on Comex futures contracts was drawn down 80 percent in 2013. The Comex handles 82% of all gold futures trading, but only a very tiny percentage take delivery; it is a basically an exchange for paper trading. Physical deliveries of gold on the London Bullion Market are about nine time greater than on the Comex, but here, too, paper trading predominates.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the one for physical delivery. Its physical deliveries have been almost equal to world gold production. In 2013 SGE delivered 2,197 tons of gold, up 92.9% from 1,139 tonnes in 2012. In January 2014, it delivered a record 247 tons, 43% greater than the monthly record set in 2013, and greater than monthly global production of gold in the entire world.
In a previous posting we noted that Germany has had difficulty since October 2012 obtaining return of gold it owns that is stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. That same posting noted Alan Greenspan’s testimony before the House Banking Committee, “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities, should the price of gold rise.” The question immediately arises whether, in fact, the Fed has leased, hypothecated or perhaps even sold gold at the Fed stored for Germany and other countries. The Fed agreed to return 300 of the 1500 tons of German gold it stores but said this would require 7 years. Why so long? If the Fed does not have all the gold, it would have to buy it, at market prices, to cover shortages in its accounts; if it has the gold but has leased it or encumbered it in some other way, it would need time to unwind those commitments or let them expire. Further suspicion is aroused by the fact that in the entire year of 2013 the Fed sent a mere 5 tons of gold back to Germany.
With the growing demand from consumers worldwide for physical possession of gold, and with Shanghai deliveries consuming effectively all of mine production, the market is very tight. Suspicions have arisen that increased demand for physical delivery for futures contracts at the Comex in particular (and perhaps in London) will exceed the exchange warehouse supplies of deliverable gold.
Paul Craig Roberts, a former assistant secretary of the U.S. treasury, says, “One day the Chinese will buy 100 tons of gold, and we won’t be able to make delivery. That would crash the system. It would just pop.”
In that case the exchange would be forced to settle the futures contracts for cash, which it is legally allowed to do. But the consequences to the dollar will be enormous. There will be a decoupling between between paper gold and the physical metal. I believe metal will win. This means the gold price will be determined by trading in the metal itself, not in paper transactions that are subject to manipulation as explained by Alan Greenspan in order to give false value to a fiat currency by driving down the gold price.
There will be a tremendous loss of confidence in the dollar. The workings of the Fed will be exposed, and more confidence will be lost, not just in the Fed and the dollar as a currency—but in its role as the world’s reserve currency.
As I explained in my latest book, The Impending Monetary Revolution, the Dollar and Gold, events have been chipping away at the dollar’s reserve status for some time. In 2011 China and Russia agreed to trade with each other in rubles and yuan, rather than dollars. China has bilateral currency swap agreements with at least 13 other countries. China has trade and investment agreements with Singapore and Korea as well as faraway countries such as Belarus and Iceland. Japan agreed to hold some of its foreign currency reserves in yuan and to issue yuan-denominated bonds in mainland China. Indonesia did the same thing. I even speculated that we may see petro-yuan replace petrodollars in the oil market.
Recently the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have agreed that trade among them will no longer be in dollars. These are all large countries with sizable populations and all, except possibly Russia, have growing economies.
Now let’s look at possible effects of the Ukrainian situation. Russia supplies gas not only to Ukraine but to many countries in the European Union via pipelines through Ukraine. It supplies 30% of Europe’s natural gas. For several countries, it is their sole source of supply, and alternative sources of supply are not available. The government in Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy and will need international financial aid to survive. The IMF and various nations are trying to arrange this. But most of the money Ukraine owes it owes to Russia, and if those bills aren’t paid, Russia can shut of the country’s imports of gas. (It has done so in the past.) Any funds that are given to Ukraine will quickly end up going to Russia for past debts.
As a result of promises made between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia back in the 1970s, the Saudis agreed that all energy contracts would be settled in dollars. Europeans pay for their gas from Russia with dollars.
U.S. and various other nations have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over Crimea and may impose more. Will sanctions prevent European nations from buying oil and gas from Russia? Of course not. It is in everyone’s interest to keep Russian gas flowing through the pipelines.
It is unlikely sanctions will alter Putin’s behavior, but if they become too onerous, they invite a devastating retaliation from him. What if he tells those gas-buying countries, “OK, you can pay for Russian gas in any currency other than dollars”? That would be the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The exchange rate of the dollar would plummet, the price of gold would skyrocket, and the Fed would be powerless to defend the dollar against it as Greenspan envisioned. The effect in the U.S. would be catastrophic, particularly on the New York stock exchange.