Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Storage: No Proof of AGW

The claim [1] that existence of a global imbalance of energy flux is the “smoking gun” for anthropogenic global warming (AGW) faces numerous problems. It relies on a model-calculated energy imbalance, which has not been validated by satellite measurements at the top of the atmosphere but is supposedly confirmed by a measured [2] (global mean) increase in ocean heat content. But how good is this claimed agreement?

Let’s be clear about one thing. There is always an imbalance – in the sense that there is more (or less) energy entering the atmosphere (as net solar radiation, i.e., incident minus reflected SW flux) than is emitted into space in the form of IR energy. But such an imbalance can only be temporary; that is, over time it must average out to zero. And what happens to this temporary imbalance, which is either positive or negative? Some of goes into melting or making ice – but most is stored in the ocean. In principle, therefore, there is nothing wrong with the method used by Hansen. But even if it were to give correct values for the imbalance, this does not prove that its origin is anthropogenic.