Policy Documents

Issues in the Current State of Climate Science

Robert Ferguson –
March 1, 2006

The science of climate and climate change is continually evolving and the balance between what we know and what we don’t know changes constantly. Just when it seems like things are pretty certain, a new study comes along suggesting that our perception of the situation is too simplistic. More often than not what we don’t know turns out to be more than we actually do know and the balance shifts.

For example, forecasts of the earth’s future climate primarily are based upon output from complex computer models of the interactions between the earth’s surface, its atmosphere, and outer space. However, combining several known limitations can make such forecasts less than reliable and much less than predictive.