Policy Documents

Modeling State Credit Risks in Illinois and Indiana

Marc Joffe –
July 1, 2013
The author uses an open-source budget-simulation model to evaluate Illinois’s credit risk and to compare it to that of Indiana, a neighboring state generally believed to have better fiscal management. Based on a review of the history and theory of state credit performance, he assumes that a state will default if the aggregate of its interest and pension costs reaches 30 percent of total revenues. His analysis finds that neither state will reach the critical threshold in the next few years under any reasonable economic scenario, suggesting no material default risk.