No Current Link between Warming and Hurricanes, Rival Experts Agree

A team of hurricane researchers representing both sides of the debate regarding global warming and hurricanes report there is a lack of evidence global warming is currently affecting hurricanes.

Ten scientists – including prominent hurricane “alarmists” Thomas Knutson and Kerry Emanuel, and prominent hurricane “skeptic” Chris Landsea – report in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience, “there was no significant change in global tropical storm or hurricane numbers from 1970 to 2004.” Going further back in time, hurricane counts “do not have a significant trend from the 1850s or 1860s to present.”

“Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase,” the scientists added.

Looking toward the future, the scientists predict global warming will cause no increase in hurricane activity. Instead, the scientists predict a 6-to-34 percent decrease in global hurricane frequency. The frequency of intense hurricanes, however, will likely increase by 2-to-11 percent.

In short, ten of the most knowledgeable hurricane experts in the world report no demonstrated link between global warming and past and present hurricane activity. They further report there are still many uncertainties regarding future hurricane activity, but their best guess is that global warming will cause fewer overall hurricanes, with some increase in the most intense hurricanes. This sounds pretty much like a non-threat, and it certainly doesn’t sound like Armageddon.

The scientists, who have clashed in the past regarding an asserted link between global warming and hurricanes, deserve praise for putting aside professional rivalry and working together to advance scientific knowledge. Perhaps if more researchers would follow this example of cooperation despite scientific disagreement, we would know much more than we presently do about global warming uncertainties.