Policy Documents

NIPCC IR1 - Chapter 1 - Climate Models and Their Limitations

August 29, 2011

Chapter 1 of Climate Change Reconsidered 2011 Interim Report describes problems that may be intrinsic to the global climate modeling exercise, followed by more detailed documentation of model shortcomings involving precipitation, temperature, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and soil moisture. We find evidence that the models over-estimate the amount of warming that occurred during the twentieth century, fail to incorporate chemical and biological processes that may be as important as the physical processes employed in the models, and models often diverge so greatly in their assumptions and findings that they cannot be said to validate each other, nor can such discordant projections be combined to produce meaningful averages.