Poll conducted as Democrats have begun calling for President Biden to remove himself from Democrat ticket
Trump leads Biden 49% to 44% among likely swing state voters
In congressional elections, swing state voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by four percentage points
Trump favorability rating reaches 50% in swing states before the assassination attempt
As more prominent Democrats call for President Biden to drop off the ticket for the November election, and reports surfacing that he could decide to drop out this weekend, a new Heartland Institute/Rasmussen Reports survey indicates Biden and the Democrats have reason to worry.
According to the survey of 5, 605 likely voters in battleground states, in a two-way matchup between former president Donald Trump and Biden, 49% say they will vote for Trump as opposed to just 44% for Biden. Making that gap more troubling for Democrats is the fact that people who voted for Biden in 2020 outnumber people who voted for Trump in 2020 by three percentage points (48% to 47%).
The poll was conducted from July 5-12—after the first presidential debate, which was universally considered a disaster for Biden by Republicans and Democrats alike—but before the attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania on July 13.
Biden fares worse when the candidates of other political parties are included. In a six-way matchup including independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, 46% would vote for Trump, 40% would vote for Biden, 7% would vote for Kennedy, 1% would vote for West, 1% would vote for Stein, and 0% would vote for Oliver.
Biden’s weakness on the top of the ticket is harming Democrats down the ballot, as well. Asked who they would vote for if Congressional elections were held today—a Republican or a Democrat—47% said they would vote for the Republican candidate with 43% choosing the Democrat candidate. Traditionally, Democrats have polled better than Republicans on the so-called “generic party” congressional choice question.
Perhaps most troubling for Democrats is that Trump’s favorability rating among swing state voters has reached the 50% threshold whereas 55% of swing state voters disapprove of Biden.
The following statements from an expert at The Heartland Institute—a free-market think tank—may be used for attribution. For more comments, refer to the contact information below. To book a Heartland guest on your program, please contact Director of Communications Jim Lakely at [email protected] and 312/377-4000 or (cell) 312/731-9364.
“As this poll from the crucial swing states shows, things could not be looking better for the Trump campaign. Without a doubt, swing state voters were horrified watching President Biden’s debate performance in late June. Such is why the tables have turned so quickly. As of now, former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead across the swing states while his favorability rating has reached 50%. Republicans also hold solid leads in down ballot races, suggesting that 2024 could be a landslide victory for the GOP. ”
Chris Talgo
Editorial Director
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]
The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information, visit our website or call 312/377-4000.
Survey of 5,605 Battleground State Likely Voters (AZ, NV, GA, PA, WI, MI)
Conducted July 5-12, 2024 By Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute
- When thinking about the elections for President and US Senate, which of these is the most important to you?
4% Not sure
6% Violent crime
21% Border security
28% The economy
7% Climate change
12% Abortion
4% Global conflicts & war
3% Education
11% Government corruption
5% Other
2. How likely are you to vote in the 2024 general election in November?
88% Very likely
9% Somewhat likely
2% Not very likely
0% Not at all likely
1% Not sure
3. If the 2024 Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
44% Biden
49% Trump
5% Other
2% Not sure
4. If the candidates were Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver, Cornell West, and Jill Stein, who would you vote for?
40% Biden
46% Trump
7% Kennedy
0% Oliver
1% West
1% Stein
1% Other
3% Not sure
4. Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Joe Biden?
25% Very favorable
19% Somewhat favorable
10% Somewhat unfavorable
45% Very unfavorable
1% Not sure
6. Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?
32% Very favorable
18% Somewhat favorable
6% Somewhat unfavorable
41% Very unfavorable
1% Not sure
7. If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
43% Democrat
47% Republican
3% Other
7% Not sure
8. How concerned are you that cheating will affect the outcome of the 2024 election?
38% Very concerned
24% Somewhat concerned
18% Not very concerned
18% Not at all concerned
2% Not sure
9. In the 2020 election, did you personally receive more than one official ballot in the mail or receive a ballot for someone who does not live at your address?
20% Yes
73% No
7% Not sure
10. Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential Election? President Joe Biden or Former President Donald Trump?
48% Biden
47% Trump
2% Other
2% Didn’t vote
1% Not sure
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
Chris Talgo is senior editor at The Heartland Institute and a research fellow for Heartland’s Socialism Research Center.
