California’s contribution to global emissions, as the 4th largest economy in the world, is a small percentage, roughly 0.75%. To put that into perspective, if the “big earthquake” hit California, and the entire state fell into the Pacific Ocean, there would be less than a 1% reduction in Worldwide emissions.
As reported by Californians for Energy Independence, California’s Economy is supported by Oil and Gas, so let’s look at the state’s demands for the products and transportation fuels that so-called renewables like wind and solar CANNOT make for society, as they can ONLY generate electricity under favorable weather conditions.
The West Coast gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels market is isolated from other supply and demand centers, as California is an energy island, separated from the States East of the Sierra Mountains. The Sierra Mountains are a natural barrier that prevents the state from pipeline access to any of the excess oil from fracking. As such, the West Coast is susceptible to unexpected outages of West Coast refineries, as it is unable to backfill an unexpected loss in
supply by quickly supplying additional products from outside the region.
Fuel Demands
California transportation fuel demands for airports, ships, cars, and trucks have staggering numbers from the in-state refineries:
Jet fuel: With all its 145 airports, including 9 international airports and 41 military airports, the demand is 13 million gallons of aviation fuel daily. Several of those airports have direct pipelines to local refineries. In 2019, California consumed 16.7% of the national total of jet fuel, making it the largest consumer of jet fuel in America.
Gasoline: For its 30 million vehicles, California is the second-largest consumer of motor gasoline among the 50 states, consuming 42 million gallons a day of gasoline, just behind Texas.
Diesel: Diesel fuel is the second largest transportation fuel used in California, consuming 10 million gallons a day of diesel to support the state’s trucking of products from 3 of the busiest shipping ports in America
Arizona and Nevada: California refineries supply 45% of Arizona’s and 88% of Nevada’s transportation fuel demands for their airports, cars, and trucks, so any disruption in California impacts all three states.
California’s northern and southern refinery fuel supply systems are not connected, requiring ocean-going vessels to transport fuel between them.
Fuel Taxes
California has the highest gas taxes in the USA.
CA’s excise tax on gasoline adds $0.60 per gallon.
CA’s “cap-and-trade” carbon tax adds $0.27 per gallon.
CA’s Reformulated Gasoline mandate adds 10-15 cents per gallon.
CA’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard is projected to add $0.37 per gallon in the near term—and $1.15 by 2046!
CA’s “Summer Blend” fuel requirements add up to $0.15 per gallon to the price of gasoline during warmer months.
California has almost 400,000 miles of roadways used by the State’s 30 million vehicles. Those roadways are heavily dependent on road taxes from fuels that contribute more than $8.8 billion annually, for planning, constructing, and maintaining California’s publicly funded roadways. The same gas tax revenues also fund many environmental programs and the high-speed rail project. That $8.8 billion revenue source from fuel taxes will diminish in the years ahead as heavier EVs are being mandated in California to replace the lighter internal combustion engine vehicles.
As a result of the State having the highest cost of transportation fuels in the nation and the highest cost for electricity in the continental USA, California has the highest homeless population in the US, with over 187,000 people experiencing homelessness. This includes a significant portion of unsheltered individuals and a high percentage of homeless veterans, senior citizens, and chronically homeless individuals.
California has obviously not learned much in the 50 years since the Oil Embargo of 1973, as the following persist:
California, the 4 th largest economy in the world, was virtually independent of foreign oil imports in 1973, but due to its relentless regulations to reduce in-state oil production the State now imports more than 70% of its crude oil demand to run the States’ 9 International airports, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America.
Over the last several decades, California’s passion to transition away from fossil fuels has overregulated and overly burdened just the SUPPLY of oil production and refining, but has not reduced the increasing materialistic DEMANDS of the State for the more than 6,000 products and transportation fuels made from those fossil fuels. Thus, China is savoring the future with their many refineries coming online to meet the DEMANDS of California.
Just last year, in October 2024, Phillips 66 announced that it would close its Wilmington-area refining complex this year, which will further reduce the state’s gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels production capacity, wiping out more than 8% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity. Losing another 1.3 billion gallons in annual gasoline output will only worsen the state’s supply challenges to meet the demands.
The recent announcement that the Valero Benica Refinery in Northern California will be closing by the end of 2026 was disappointing, but shockingly, a prelude to more closures in the future. The Valero refinery at Benicia represents almost 9% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity to meet the materialistic demands of the state’s residents.
California refineries cannot simply increase production to offset the loss from closures, such as the Phillips 66 Wilmington and upcoming Valero Benicia shutdowns, due to a combination of physical, regulatory, and economic constraints. First, most California refineries already operate near their maximum capacity utilization, typically averaging
between 85% and 95%, leaving little room for scalable increases without risking operational reliability. Increasing throughput would require significant capital investments in equipment upgrades, hiring, and maintenance capacity—none of which are viable in a state that is actively discouraging fossil fuel infrastructure through aggressive decarbonization mandates.
Second, the California regulatory environment imposes some of the strictest environmental and operational requirements in the world. Any significant increase in refinery output would likely trigger new reviews under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), potentially leading to years-long permitting delays. Additionally,
CARB’s requirements for specialized gasoline formulations (CARBOB) mean refineries cannot simply increase production using generic refining methods; instead, they must produce complex, seasonal, and cleaner-burning fuel blends, which require dedicated infrastructure and limit flexibility.
Economically, refiners face a shrinking return on investment. With the 2035 ban on new internal combustion vehicles looming and EV adoption slowly rising, California refiners have little long-term incentive to invest in expanding production. In fact, many are choosing to exit the market or repurpose facilities for renewable fuels rather than double down on gasoline. As a result, the remaining refiners are unlikely or unable to ramp up production to backfill lost supply, leaving California more reliant on imported, California-compliant gasoline from out-of-state or foreign
sources, which is slower and more expensive to procure.
Governor Newsom’s policies, just on the “supply” side of the equation, continue to force California, the 4th largest economy in the world, to be the only state in contiguous America that imports most of its crude oil demands from foreign countries. California crude oil production is in terminal decline, driven by the lack of drilling permits, despite ample reserves. That dependence on foreign imports has increased imported crude oil from foreign countries from 5
percent in 1992 to more than 70 percent today of total consumption demand.
A Prager University 5-minute video on the World Without Fossil Fuels provides visual explanations about the demands of the American economy, which will lead to importing manufactured fuels and petrochemicals from new Asian refineries in the coming years, which may soon become a reality, with China coming to the rescue!
In the more immediate term, China has plans for multiple new refineries, with at least five projects expected to be completed by 2028, and another three new refineries by 2030, contributing to a broader shift towards integrated petrochemical facilities.
Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new refinery facilities in planning or under construction in Asia for manufactured gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels used by every transportation infrastructure, and the military, as well as the manufactured oil derivatives that are the basis of most products being used by mankind.
Not only does California’s la-la land have a minuscule impact on worldwide emissions, but its growing dependence on refineries in China to meet the enormous demand for transportation fuels to support the state’s public and military airports is becoming a national security risk to the entire United States of America.
First Published at America Out Loud News.
Ronald Stein is an internationally published columnist and energy consultant, and a policy advisor for The Heartland Institute.
