Poll conducted as Democrats started to openly call for President Biden to remove himself from ticket
Trump leads 47% to 44% in survey of likely voters nationwide
In Congressional elections, likely voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by four percentage points
Survey suggests even more bad news for the president considering 48% of those polled voted for Biden in 2020 compared to 44% who voted for Trump
As more prominent Democrats call for President Biden to drop off the ticket for the November election, and reports have surfaced that he could decide to drop out this weekend, a new Heartland Institute/Rasmussen Reports survey indicates Biden and the Democrats have reason to worry.
According to the survey of 2,466 likely voters across the nation, in a two-way matchup between former president Donald Trump and Biden, 47% say they will vote for Trump to just 44% for Biden. Making that gap more troubling for Democrats is the fact that people who voted for Biden in 2020 outnumbers people who voted for Trump in 2020 by three percentage points (48% to 45).
The poll was conducted from July 5-12, which is after the first presidential debate — which even Democrats acknowledged was a disaster for Biden’s campaign — but before the assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania on July 13.
Biden fares worse when the candidates of other political parties are included. In a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, former Harvard Professor Cornell West, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, 44% would vote for Trump, 39% would vote for Biden, 8% would vote for Kennedy, with 2% each for West and Stein, and 1% for Oliver.
Biden’s weakness on the top of the ticket is harming Democrats down the ballot, as well. Asked who they would vote for if Congressional elections were held today — a Republican or a Democrat — 46% said they’d vote for the Republican with 42% choosing the Democrat. Traditionally, Democrats have polled better than Republicans on the so-called “generic party” Congressional choice question.
The following statements from experts at The Heartland Institute – a free-market think tank – may be used for attribution. For more comments, refer to the contact information below. To book a Heartland guest on your program, please contact Director of Communications Jim Lakely at [email protected] and 312/377-4000 or (cell) 312/731-9364.
“The American people realized after watching the first debate that the legacy media and the government were lying to them for years, covering up the obvious, troubling, and rapid decline in President Biden’s physical and mental strength. In short, they were all hiding the fact that our president has dementia. As millions of American families know, dementia is not a condition that gets better. It only gets worse. Combined with presiding over a presidency with policies that have made every aspect of American life worse, it’s hard to see how Biden’s polling numbers don’t also continue to get worse. Leaders in his own party see this, too. That’s why we are witnessing the unprecedented spectacle of Democrat leaders and donors urging a man who brags of getting more votes for president than anyone in history to step aside and not see re-election.
Jim Lakely
Vice President
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]
The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information, visit our website or call 312/377-4000.
Survey of 2,466 US Likely Voters
Conducted July 5-12, 2024 By Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute
If the 2024 Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Trump 47%
Biden 44%
Other 6%
Not sure 3%
If the candidates were Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver, Cornell West, and Jill Stein, who would you vote for?
Trump 44%
Biden 39%
Kennedy 8%
West 2%
Stein 2%
Oliver 1%
Other 1%
If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Republican 46%
Democrat 42%
Other 6%
Unsure 6%
Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential Election? President Joe Biden or Former President Donald Trump?
Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Other 3%
Didn’t vote 3%
Not sure 1%
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
PHOTOS: Trump: Anne Moneymaker/Getty; Biden: Gage Skdmore/Flickr
Jim Lakely is the Vice President and Director of Communications of The Heartland Institute.
