(June 5, 2009) The most frequent question we hear is: 'When will the recession end?'1 Last May 2 we announced the U.S. economy entered recession in January 2008. Our forecast missed by one month. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared Dec. 1, 2008, that economic activity peaked in December 2007. 3
Looking in the Wrong Places
(October 12, 2009) State revenues from a 2008 severance tax hike are short of the official estimate due to deflation in the natural gas market. But a 30 percent cut in the state capital gains tax in 19991 led to revenues greater than the estimate due to increased economic activity.
Both episodes—a decade apart—underscore that policymakers weighing tax proposals would benefit from dynamic analysis, an attempt to measure the full effect of fiscal policy on revenue estimates.
(December 2009) Arkansas will see a reduction in job growth, with 17,100 to 23,300 fewer jobs in 2030 under a 'Cap-and-Trade' proposal, according to a new study by the Arkansas Policy Foundation and the American Council for Capital Formation.
Margo Thorning, Ph.D, and Pinar Cebi Wilber, Ph.D authored the study, which concludes: