Climate Change Weekly #103
This week marks the halfway point of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season – and not a single hurricane has formed anywhere in the Atlantic. This year’s lack of hurricanes continues an ongoing, beneficial trend of fewer hurricanes coinciding with moderately warming temperatures as the planet continues its recovery from the Little Ice Age. The decline in hurricanes also coincides with global warming alarmists ramping up a deceptive public relations campaign designed to convince the public that global warming skeptics are causing more hurricanes.
The lack of hurricanes so far in 2013 is remarkable in several particulars.
First, hurricanes have posted a giant goose egg so far on the 2013 hurricane scoreboard. This isn’t just hurricane strikes in the United States; this is hurricane formation anywhere in the Atlantic.
Second, this year’s hurricane inactivity continues what was already a record lack of recent hurricanes. Although President Barack Obama is well into his fifth year in office, the Obama administration is tied for the fewest number of U.S. hurricane strikes for any one- or two-term presidency in history.
Third, the silent 2013 hurricane season extends an amazing record regarding major hurricane strikes of Category 3 or higher. The United States is currently undergoing its longest period in history without a major hurricane strike.
Fourth, the record lack of major hurricane strikes continues a longer-term decline. During the past five decades, an average of 5.6 major hurricanes struck the United States per decade. During the preceding five decades, an average of 8.4 major hurricanes struck the United States.
Fifth, a fairly typical number of small tropical storms continue to form in 2013, but the tropical storms are not growing into hurricanes. This runs counter to alarmist claims that global warming puts tropical storms on steroids.
Sixth, the silent 2013 Atlantic hurricane season continues a longer-term decline in global hurricane activity. The global number of tropical storms and hurricanes has been in slow but steady decline since at least 1970, bringing 40-plus years of relief from the planet’s most devastating storms.
Nevertheless, alarmists are doubling down on false hurricane claims, all the while engaging in name-calling and personal attacks against the “deniers” who defer to objective facts and real-world hurricane data.
The 350 Action group garnered substantial media attention this week by engaging in just such misleading and personal attacks. The global warming activist group released a video proposing to name hurricanes after prominent legislators who “deny” that global warming causes more hurricanes.
There is an important lesson to learn from the alarmists’ attempt to smear people who defer to objective evidence and factual data rather than misguided speculation and alarmism: The “denier” label applies most fittingly to global warming activists rather than skeptics.
IN THIS ISSUE
Peer-reviewed study indicates recent warming is natural … IPCC lead author reports flaws in asserted 97 percent consensus … U.S. wildfire numbers are at an all-time low … Polar sea ice refuses to obey global warming alarmists
PEER-REVIEWED STUDY INDICATES RECENT WARMING IS NATURAL
Nature is responsible for most of the planet’s warming in recent decades, a newly published peer-reviewed study indicates. Writing in the journal Nature, scientists found a close correlation between natural variations in tropical Pacific surface water temperatures and ensuing global cooling and warming events.
A global climate model developed to reflect the regional sea surface temperatures replicated the lack of recent global warming despite continued increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The climate model also indicated these same natural forces account for most of the global warming during recent decades.
SOURCE: Environment & Climate News
IPCC LEAD AUTHOR REPORTS FLAWS IN REPORTED 97 PERCENT CONSENSUS
A recently published paper claiming 97 percent of peer-reviewed studies on climate change agree “humans are causing global warming” is riddled with errors and ends-driven measuring sticks, according to United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author Richard Tol.
“My attention was drawn to the fact that the headline conclusion had no confidence interval, that the main validity test was informal, and that the sample contained a very large number of irrelevant papers while simultaneously omitting many relevant papers,” Tol explained.
“I found that the consensus rate in the data differs from that reported in the paper,” Tol noted in a letter to Professor Peter Høj, president and vice-chancellor of The University of Queensland. “Further research showed that, contrary to what is said in the paper, the main validity test in fact invalidates the data. And the sample of papers does not represent the literature. That is, the main finding of the paper is incorrect, invalid and unrepresentative.”
SOURCE: Jo Nova
U.S. WILDFIRE NUMBERS ARE AT AN ALL-TIME LOW
The number of wildfires in the United States is at an all-time low this year, the National Interagency Fire Center reports. Also, the total number of acres burned is the second-lowest on record. The wildfire data contradict alarmist assertions global warming is causing more wildfires. National Interagency Fire Center data show the number of U.S. wildfires has been in decline for the past 40 years.
SOURCES: Real Science and Watts Up With That?
POLAR SEA ICE REFUSES TO OBEY GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISTS
Polar sea ice remained at the long-term average throughout August, defying alarmists’ claims that global warming is causing a melting of the polar ice caps. For the year to date, polar sea ice remains above the long-term average. Arctic sea ice is currently below the long-term average while Antarctic sea ice is above the long-term average.
SOURCE: Cryosphere Today
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