2014 Won’t Be Warmest Year

Published October 27, 2014

Climate Change Weekly #144

Contrary to projections made by environmental journalist Seth Borenstein in a widely reprinted article, 2014 will not be the hottest year on record.

Based on average surface temperature data for January–September 2014, Borenstein said the year is on pace to be the warmest in the modern instrumental record. He’ll be proven wrong.

Dr. Roy Spencer points out thermometers can’t measure global averages – only satellites can. Satellites measure nearly every square mile of Earth’s lower atmosphere daily. By contrast, there are many areas where one could travel hundreds of miles without finding a thermometer nearby.

According to the two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures – Spencer’s group at the University of Alabama – Huntsville and the Remote Sensing Systems group – the 2014 average temperature is significantly lower than those in 2010 and especially 1998. There’s no way the global average will increase enough in the remaining three months of the year to catch up.

Sparse coverage by land-based thermometers is one problem. A bigger problem is the “homogenization” or adjustments to the land-based data. When researchers actually throw out the real measured temperatures and replace them with guesstimates, the surface temperature record amounts to nothing more than garbage in, garbage out.

In addition, Spencer points out land-based measurements are biased as a result of location. “[L]land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.”

Climate alarmists, who claim to be the champions of science, still “use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case,” wrote Spencer. They also continue to tout flawed climate models that have missed both the pause in warming and the slowing of the rise in sea levels. Spencer adds, “they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case,” and he quotes British economist Ronald Coase: “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”

SOURCE: Dr. Roy Spencer


Climate change, “nothing but a lie” … Europe: Suicide by emission cuts … U.S. climate getting less extreme … Antarctic glacier melt, volcano not global warming … New paper: Climate less sensitive than models project


Citing the work of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Weather Channel founder John Coleman says the debate about human-caused climate change is, in fact, over, as it has been proven not to exist. In an open letter criticizing the IPCC, Coleman states, “The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number. Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing). I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.”

SOURCE: The Express


Flying in the face of the collapsing global warming theory, European Union leaders agreed to force on their citizens greenhouse gas emission cuts of 40 percent by 2030. Since emissions have risen in many parts of Europe, one wonders what kind of extreme measures EU member states will have to impose on their economies to meet the 40 percent target. Australia’s Eric Worrall has said of the agreement, “The European Union has just committed suicide.”

SOURCE: Watts Up With That


Contrary to the claims of the National Climatic Data Center, the U.S. climate is getting less extreme. As Steve Goddard points out, in the past 100 years, the most extreme year was 1936, when 75% of stations recorded 100 degree temperatures and 66% of stations recorded temperatures below 0ºF. The past 20 years have seen less extreme swings in temperature than the first decade of the twentieth century.

SOURCE: Steve Goddard Real Science


While Antarctica’s ice has expanded dramatically this year, setting new records several times, the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting, but not due to global warming. Geothermal activity is melting the ice sheet from below. The air temperature in the Antarctic hasn’t risen since 1979 and Antarctic sea surface temperatures have fallen since 2006. Other studies have confirmed these findings and found underground geothermal activity is also responsible for some glacial melt in Greenland.

SOURCE: The Hockey Schtick


In a new paper published in the Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change, professor of physics Dr. Hermann Harde finds climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide levels is only about [0.6C]: seven times less than IPCC claims. Additionally, the paper finds the climate is as sensitive to small changes in solar activity as it is to CO2 changes, a fact the climate models miss.

SOURCE: Watts Up With That

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