Keystone State Would Be Hard Hit by Kyoto

Published March 1, 1999

According to a report issued by the Allegheny Institute for Public Policy, Pennsylvania would lose approximately $15 billion in Gross State Product–$2,700 per household–if the U.S. were to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to levels required by the Kyoto global warming treaty. By 2010, compliance with the treaty would result in 164,000 fewer jobs, 24 percent of which would be in the Keystone State’s manufacturing sector.

Pennsylvania would be among the 10 states hardest hit economically by the Kyoto Protocol. The state’s vulnerability stems from its large base of energy-intensive industries, whose production costs would climb dramatically if policies were implemented to cut carbon emissions. As the state’s manufacturing jobs disappeared, those that support them–in legal, administrative, computer, and counseling services–also would be eliminated. The services sector would account for 40 percent of the decline in total employment, according to the report.

Policies aimed at meeting the Kyoto Protocol’s targets–reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010–would have an especially severe impact in the southwestern region of Pennsylvania. Twenty percent of the state’s projected job losses, or 33,000 jobs, would come from that region, which comprises the counties of Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland.

The November report, “Economic Impact Analysis of Global Climate Change Policy on Pennsylvania,” was prepared for the Allegheny Institute for Public Policy by CONSAD Research Corp.