Recipients of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine experienced more all-cause deaths within the first 100 days post-vaccination than those who received the Moderna shot, a new study of 1.47 million people found.
Although all-cause mortality for either shot should have been the same, 230 more people per 100,000 who got the Pfizer jab died within the first 12 months after inoculation, and 83 out of 100,000 died from cardiovascular causes, than with the Moderna shot.
Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, M.D., and statistician Retsef Levi conducted the study using Florida’s public health databases to identify adults who received at least two doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines within a six-week interval. The database also provided demographic information about vaccine recipients and where they received their shots.
Ladapo wrote a letter to the Food and Drug Administration in January 2024 calling for a halt in the use of COVID-19 mRNA shots for safety reasons.
Outcomes, Not Odds
“This study is important because it’s a comparative analysis—not measuring the overall risk of death from each vaccine, but directly comparing the death outcomes between the two,” said John Dale Dunn, M.D., a Texas physician, attorney, and policy advisor to The Heartland Institute, which co-publishes Health Care News.
“What the study found is that there is a difference,” said Dunn. “It’s not a huge difference, but it is noticeable.”
The study did a good job of controlling for confounding variables such as socioeconomic status, age, and other factors to avoid adverse selection bias, and it eliminated people in institutions or who died from violent causes, said Dunn.
“The reported numbers showed a clear difference between the two vaccines, but the disparity wasn’t large enough to definitively conclude that the Pfizer vaccine poses an unacceptable risk,” said Dunn.
Sample Strength
The study’s large, diverse sample size gives it unusual credibility, says Merrill Matthews, Ph.D., a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation and a columnist for The Hill.
“Importantly, the number of deaths potentially attributable to the vaccines is actually quite low,” said Matthews. “That matters because there have been numerous claims suggesting far higher vaccine-related death rates.”
Although Phase III clinical trials typically have thousands of participants, they don’t match the scale of post-market use, so some side effects may not become evident until a drug is widely administered, says Matthews.
“For example, myocarditis began showing up in younger men after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, a pattern not seen during clinical trials,” said Matthews. “But that’s not unusual; it happened with some Cox-2 inhibitor NSAIDs like Celebrex and Vioxx when they hit the market in the 1990s.”
Unanswered Questions
Although the study suggests higher all-cause mortality for one formulation of the vaccine over another, it lacks critical information, says Jane Orient, M.D., executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons.
“What we really need to know is how those vaccinated compare with a matched unvaccinated population,” said Orient. “And what about the causes of death? How many of the deceased underwent autopsies? Was there any investigation into a possible link between the vaccine and death?”
The public might conclude both shots are risky, says Orient.
“One might conclude that the Pfizer vaccine is more dangerous than Moderna’s, and it’s possible Pfizer could pressure the media not to report on that,” said Orient. “But the broader takeaway some people might have is that both vaccines carry risks. Also of note is that vaccinated people were still dying of COVID, though much less often than from other causes.”
Media Silence
There could be a particular reason why the study hasn’t gotten more attention, says Matthews.
“I think the public and the media are over the pandemic,” said Matthews. “There’s just not as much interest anymore. Booster shots are down, many doctors aren’t recommending the newest versions, and the media has moved on to other stories.”
The silence could also be a case of the media disliking the messenger, says Matthews.
“Dr. Joseph Ladapo is viewed by many as a vocal vaccine skeptic, especially regarding the COVID vaccines,” said Matthews. “That reputation, along with his strong support for former President Trump, may cause the media to dismiss the study or avoid amplifying it altogether.”
Kenneth Artz ([email protected]) writes from Tyler, Texas.
Artz has more than 20 years’ experience in nonprofit organizations, publishing, newspaper reporting, and public policy advocacy.
