The elephant in the room is a supply chain backup plan for products now supporting humanity that is required before we electrify the world.
There are extensive technical and lengthy discussions and proposed solutions, both pros and cons, about climate change, rising oceans, extreme weather events, the impact of emissions, net-zero, EV mandates, wind and solar mandates, pollution, temperature change, and energy subsidies.
The elephant in the room that is seldom discussed is the simple and easy to understand fact of life that the world is facing shortages of the same products and fuels manufactured from crude oil that were the basis of the planets’ population growth from one to eight billion in less than two hundred years.
A non-technical explanation for these upcoming shortages is that wind turbines and solar panels can only generate electricity but cannot manufacture any products for humanity.
With no backup plan to maintain the supply chain for all the products and fuels supporting the eight billion on this planet, the following should be helpful for new regulations, mandates, and laws that would restore sensible, affordable, and rational energy policies.
- Whereas, wind turbines and solar panels only generate electricity, but manufacture no products for humanity.
- And whereas, ridding the world of fossil fuels would result in a reduction in each of the following, as all these infrastructures exist because of the products manufactured from crude oil, that cannot be manufactured by either wind turbines or solar panels.
| Infrastructures that did not exist before 1800 | Manufactured from fossil fuels | Manufactured from wind and solar | |
| 1 | Products for medications and medical equipment at pharmacies and hospitals. | Yes | No |
| 2 | The tires for the billions of vehicles. | Yes | No |
| 3 | Products and fuels for number of cruise ships that now move twenty-five million passengers around the world. | Yes | No |
| 4 | Products and fuels for the space program. | Yes | No |
| 5 | Products and fuels for the 50,000 heavy-weight and long-range merchant ships that are moving products throughout the world. | Yes | No |
| 6 | Products and fuels for 50,000 heavy-weight and long-range jets used by commercial airlines, private usage, and the military. | Yes | No |
| 7 | Products for communications systems, including cell phones, computers, iPhones, and iPads. | Yes | No |
| 8 | Products for water filtration systems. | Yes | No |
| 9 | Products for the sanitation systems. | Yes | No |
| 10 | Products for wind turbines and solar panels as they are all made with products from fossil fuels. | Yes | No |
| 11 | The asphalt for the millions of miles of roadways. | Yes | No |
| 12 | The fertilizers that come from natural gas help feed billions. | Yes | No |
| 13 | The pesticides to control locusts and other pests. | Yes | No |
- And whereas that today, 700 oil refineries around the world are designed for specific crude oil feedstocks available to those sites, and then manufacture each 42-gallon barrel of oil into light and heavy hydrocarbon products available from that feedstock to support the world’s 8 billion on this planet that are dependent on the 50,000 jets moving people and products, and more than 50,000 merchant ships for global trade flows, and the militaries of each country, and space programs that are based on the heavy hydrocarbons for the various fuels manufactured from crude oil.
- And whereas those light hydrocarbons are primarily used for making the more than 6,000 products for humanity and the infrastructures that did not exist before 1800.
- And whereas, to achieve a world of only those light ends to make all the products now in society that supports lifestyles and all the infrastructures, there are thoughts among the green community that we can convert the existing old refineries to produce nothing but derivatives, and/or replace the existing refineries with derivative refineries, or just manufacturing those light ends. That may be another pipe dream as each refinery is designed for specific crude oil feedstocks available to those sites, and conversions may be technically too expensive and not even permittable.
- And whereas, a 42-gallon barrel of oil contains about 90 percent of heavy hydrocarbons for various fuels, and about 10 percent of light hydrocarbons that are the basis of thousands of products made from those oil derivatives by -products. We can’t squeeze more light-end hydrocarbons from a barrel of oil.
- And whereas, that such a switch of those old refineries to derivative refineries is a pipedream or an environmental and emissions disaster as 90 percent of that 42-gallon barrel of crude oil would need to be disposed of if not marketable as manufactured products like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), automotive gasolines, jet fuels, distillate fuel oils, diesel fuels.
- 1 to 8 billion in 200 years, because they can be manufactured into thousands of usable, life-enhancing and life-saving products.
- And whereas, the sites for the mining of materials required to build wind, solar, and EV batteries exist in developing countries that are under minimal to nonexistent labor, wage, environmental, reclamation, and worker health and safety regulations. The mere extraction of those exotic minerals presents social challenges, human rights abuses, and environmental degradations worldwide, but are of no significance to the wealthy countries benefiting from those “green” materials.
- And whereas, the climate cult COULD seek decommissioning and restoration standards in those developing countries down to the last dandelion, just like we have for decommissioned mines, oil, and nuclear sites in America, but the climate cult avoids the same in developing countries.
- And whereas, the life cycle for electricity from wind turbines and solar runs from design, procurement, and construction, through operations and maintenance, and repair, as well as the life ending decommissioning and disposal, but again, recycling and restoration of the landscaping back to its original pristine condition, is also not in the cards in the wealthy countries that are going green.
- And whereas, that ridding the world of oil, without a replacement in mind, would be immoral and evil, as extreme shortages of the products manufactured from fossil fuels which are supporting the 8 billion on this planet will result in billions of fatalities from diseases, malnutrition, and weather-related deaths. Shortages of fossil fuel products would necessitate lifestyles being mandated back to the horse and buggy days of the 1800’s and could be the greatest threat to the planet’s eight billion residents.
Before implementation of any policies that impact the supply chain of crude oil, a replacement must be identified that can maintain the supply chain of more than 6,000 products and various fuels that support the health and food requirements of the 8 billion now on this planet and the 50,000 merchant ships and 50,000 jets that are moving products around the world for global trade flows, and the military and space programs.
Ronald Stein is an internationally published columnist and energy consultant, and a policy advisor for The Heartland Institute.
