Heartland/Rasmussen Poll: Large Majority of Voters (61%) Believe Biden’s Mental Decline is a National Security Threat

Nearly half of voters nationally and 53% in the battleground states think Joe Biden is one of the worst presidents in American History

Majority of voters (and 64% in the battleground states) say Joe Biden is to blame for inflation in the price of groceries, gasoline, cars, and homes

Barely more than half of voters think Biden has been honest with the American people on the state of the economy

Voters don’t credit Biden’s policies for job growth in the US

Nearly half of voters want to reduce US financial and military support to Ukraine

While President Joe Biden has bowed out of the 2024 presidential race, he has pledged to remain in office and carry out all the duties of the presidency until his term is up in January 2025. However, a strong majority of likely voters think his declining mental state poses a national security threat.

A new Heartland Institute/Rasmussen Reports poll asked 2,466 likely voters nationwide: “Agree or disagree? Joe Biden’s recent mental decline poses a threat to the safety and security of the United States.” A combined 61% agreed, with 46% strongly agreeing, 14% somewhat disagreeing, 22% strongly disagreeing, and 4% answering they were not sure.

The poll was conducted from July 9-12, 2024, which was before the attempted assassination against Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump and before Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race.

The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen also asked the same question to 5,605 likely voters in battleground states – Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – and the results were even starker. A combined 65% of those surveyed thought Biden’s mental decline posed a threat to national security with 50% strongly agreeing, 12% somewhat disagreeing, 19% strongly disagreeing, and 4% answering they were not sure.

The overwhelming view among voters that Biden’s mental decline is a threat to U.S. national security contrasts with the view of the administration, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Biden’s physician, Kevin O’Connor, who have said the president is healthy enough “to perform all of his presidential duties.”

President Biden announced he was dropping from the race, and endorsing Harris as his successor, via a letter posted on X (formerly known as Twitter) on Sunday afternoon. He has not made a public appearance since retreating to his Rehoboth Beach, Delaware home last week to recover from another bout of COVID.

The results of the poll break along partisan lines, with 81% of Republicans saying the decline in mental acuity Biden has demonstrated, especially in recent months and during his June 27 debate with Trump, poses a threat to national security. But even 39% of Democrats believe this to be the case.

The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports also asked voters about Biden’s performance as president and his agenda, which Harris has pledged to carry on.

Asked if they agree that “Joe Biden is one of the worst presidents in American history,” 49% said they agree (38% strongly) and 47% said they disagree (36% strongly). Among voters in the battleground states that are likely to decide the election, 52% said they agree Joe Biden is among the worst presidents in American history.

The poll asked: “Prices of gasoline, groceries, cars, and homes have increased dramatically since Joe Biden has become president. How much do you blame President Biden’s policies for these higher prices?” Among likely voters nationally, 40% said Biden deserves “a lot” of the blame, 16% said “some,” 22% said “not much,” 20% said “none,” and 3% were unsure. The results were worse for Biden in the battleground states with 64% blaming the president for inflation on those key life expenses – 47% “a lot, 14% “some,” 20% “not much,” 17% “none,” and 3% unsure.

The poll also asked about Biden’s expression of confidence in the U.S. economy under his leadership. The survey asked: “President Biden says the U.S. economy is “strong” and that his policies are responsible for historic job growth and better living conditions for most families. When it comes to the state of the economy, how honest do you think President Biden has been with the American people?”

Among those polled nationwide, 33% said Biden has been “very honest” in his statements about the economy and 18% said “somewhat honest” for a total of 51%. Meanwhile, 11% said Biden has been “somewhat dishonest” and 37% said “very dishonest” for a total of 47%. Among likely voters in battleground states, 50% said Biden has been dishonest and 47% said Biden has been honest about the state of the economy.

Likely voters were also not willing to give Biden credit for job-creation in America under his administration, a likely ominous sign for Harris if she’s nominated for the top of the ticket at the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

The poll asked: “Agree or disagree? President Biden’s policies are responsible for creating 15 million jobs since he took office, and Biden deserves most of the credit for the added jobs.” Among likely voters nationally, only 46% agreed (27% strongly and 19% somewhat) while 49% disagreed (36% strongly and 13% somewhat). The results in the battleground states were nearly identical.

American likely voters are also not enthusiastic about Biden’s seemingly unconditional support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. The poll asked: “Earlier in June, President Biden signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, and since the war between Russia and Ukraine began, Congress has appropriated $175 billion in aid for Ukraine’s military and civilians. Would you support or oppose legislation to reduce aid and military support for Ukraine?”

Nearly half of likely voters nationwide, 49%, said they’d support legislation to reduce U.S. financial and military support to Ukraine, with 25% saying they strongly support that and 24% saying they somewhat support that. On the other side, 40% would oppose limiting aid to Ukraine, with 25% strongly opposed and 15% somewhat opposed. Another 10% said they were not sure. The results in the battleground states were nearly identical to the national survey.

The following statements from experts who worked on the poll at The Heartland Institute – a free-market think tank – may be used for attribution. For more comments, refer to the contact information below. To book a Heartland guest on your program, please contact Director of Communications Jim Lakely at [email protected] and 312/377-4000 or (cell) 312/731-9364.

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“Clearly, most Americans believe that President Biden’s mental decline, which was on full display in late June during the debate, has become so acute that it poses a serious national security threat to the United States. I find it almost inconceivable that more than six in 10 Americans think the current commander-in-chief and leader of the free world is unable to perform his most fundamental duty: keeping Americans safe from threats at home and abroad.

“No wonder nearly half of likely voters have already decided that Biden is the worst president in U.S. history, which is a stunning admission of just how terrible a job he has done. From persistent inflation to lackluster economic growth, Americans realize that the Biden administration has been an utter failure on multiple fronts.”

Chris Talgo
Editorial Director
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]

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“As the debate in Washington continues over whether Joe Biden should remain in the presidency now that he has dropped out of the race, the American people have spoken loudly. If Biden is not mentally and physically up to the task of running for re-election, he is definitionally not fit to carry out the duties of the office – which is the hardest and most-important job in the country. America’s enemies see this as well as 61% of the American people do.

“The Democrats’ attempt to keep their hold on the White House would still appear to be in peril because Kamala Harris will have to run on the Biden-Harris record. Our polling with Rasmussen Reports shows that likely voters – especially in the key battleground states – do not give that record high marks. They will continue to blame the Biden-Harris administration for their struggles under high inflation that has devastated their purchasing power, no matter how much happy talk the Democrats will make about the economy.”

Jim Lakely
Vice President and Director of Communications
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]

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“It’s been decided by the Democratic Party and much of the mainstream media that Joe Biden is mentally unfit to run for President again. However, few of those same people are calling for him to step down from his role as president. If his perceived cognitive decline is bad enough to warrant him dropping out of the race, you’d think it would also warrant him resigning completely. Based on our poll results, this seems to be the beliefs of a large majority of the population.”

Donald Kendal
Director, Socialism Research Center
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]

The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. For more information, visit our website or call 312/377-4000.

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Survey of 2,466 US Likely Voters, and Survey of 5,605 Battleground State Likely Voters (AZ, NV, GA, PA, WI, MI)

Conducted July 5-12, 2024 By Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute

1. Agree or disagree? Joe Biden’s recent mental decline poses a threat to the safety and security of the United States.

NATIONAL

Strongly agree 46%

Somewhat agree 15%

Somewhat disagree 14%

Strongly disagree 22%

Not sure 4%

BATTLEGROUND

Strongly agree 42%

Somewhat agree 11%

Somewhat disagree 9%

Strongly disagree 35%

Not sure 3%

NATIONAL

Strongly agree 46%

Somewhat agree 15%

Somewhat disagree 14%

Strongly disagree 22%

Not sure 4%

BATTLEGROUND

Strongly agree 42%

Somewhat agree 11%

Somewhat disagree 9%

Strongly disagree 35%

Not sure 3%

2. Agree or disagree? Joe Biden is one of the worst presidents in American history.

NATIONAL

Strongly agree 38%

Somewhat agree 11%

Somewhat disagree 11%

Strongly disagree 36%

Not sure 4%

BATTLEGROUND

Strongly agree 42%

Somewhat agree 11%

Somewhat disagree 9%

Strongly disagree 35%

Not sure 3%

3. Prices of gasoline, groceries, cars, and homes have increased dramatically since Joe Biden has become president. How much do you blame President Biden’s policies for these higher prices?

NATIONAL

A lot 40%

Some 16%

Not much 22%

None 20%

Not sure 3%

BATTLEGROUND

A lot 47%

Some 14%

Not much 20%

None 17%

Not sure 3%

4. President Biden says the U.S. economy is “strong” and that his policies are responsible for historic job growth and better living conditions for most families. When it comes to the state of the economy, how honest do you think President Biden has been with the American people?

NATIONAL

Very honest 33%

Somewhat honest 18%

Somewhat dishonest 11%

Very dishonest 37%

Not sure 2%

BATTLEGROUND

Very honest 28%

Somewhat honest 19%

Somewhat dishonest 11%

Very dishonest 39%

Not sure 2%

5. Agree or disagree? President Biden’s policies are responsible for creating 15 million jobs since he took office, and Biden deserves most of the credit for the added jobs.

NATIONAL

Strongly agree 27%

Somewhat agree 19%

Somewhat disagree 13%

Strongly disagree 36%

Not sure 5%

BATTLEGROUND

Strongly agree 27%

Somewhat agree 19%

Somewhat disagree 11%

Strongly disagree 39%

Not sure 4%

6. Earlier in June, President Biden signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, and since the war between Russia and Ukraine began, Congress has appropriated $175 billion in aid for Ukraine’s military and civilians. Would you support or oppose legislation to reduce aid and military support for Ukraine?

NATIONAL

Strongly support 25%

Somewhat support 24%

Somewhat oppose 15%

Strongly oppose 25%

Not sure 10%

BATTLEGROUND

Strongly support 28%

Somewhat support 21%

Somewhat oppose 15%

Strongly oppose 26%

Not sure 10%

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

PHOTO: Gage Skidmore/Flickr