Climate Change Weekly #145
The climate is changing, but Professor Daniel B. Botkin believes the best-available evidence does not show those changes are humankind’s fault.
Botkin, professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology at the University of California-Santa Barbara, dissects a report issued by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “National Landmarks at Risk, How Rising Seas, Floods, and Wildfires Are Threatening the United States’ Most Cherished Historic Sites.”
UCS’s four authors treated research from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other global warming alarmists as accurate. Then they described the predicted effects of global warming for 16 American historic sites. According to the UCS analysis, 11 of the sites are threatened by rising sea levels and their consequences (coastal erosion and flooding); two by inland flooding; two by wildfires; and one by “extreme heat and drought.”
Botkin, who has done original research and published on the claims of human-caused warming and its possible effects on ecological systems for more than 20 years, points out to estimate the possible effects properly, one must begin with sound science. He then undertakes a short but damning critique of each of the scientific claims cited by UCS.
Concerning the link between rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and temperature, Botkin notes Earth’s surface and atmospheric temperatures aren’t tracking the rise in carbon dioxide. Because the models and reality diverge, the models cannot be relied upon for predictions about the future.
Regarding sea level rise, Botkin reports sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age and the current rates of sea level rise, contrary to model predictions, are not increasing. Sea level rise is a problem for historic coastal sites, but not a human-caused problem. We should have been planning to deal with natural sea level rise for decades.
Based on climate models, UCS reports 12 of the 16 sites are in danger of flooding as the frequency of severe storms and their landfalls will increase. But contra the climate models, Botkin reports, severe storm frequency shows variation over time but no overall increase. Once again, he notes, “since the climate models don’t even come close to forecasting temperature change, we cannot trust them to forecast changes in storm frequency.”
In addition, proposed threats from extremely hot days are not borne out by actual measurements, since there has not been an increase in the average number of very hot days as measured by United States Historical Climatology Network weather stations that have been in operation since 1930.
Botkin recognizes national parks and other historic sites face a variety of challenges, but the challenges aren’t due to anthropogenic warming. Some of the problems parks face are due to natural climate change, others are due to decisions made about park management. These problems have nothing to do with human emissions of carbon dioxide.
SOURCE: National Parks Traveler
IN THIS ISSUE
El Niño, clouds, implicated in warming since the 1950s … Record temperatures confound alarmist claims … Companies should fight alarmist demands … Climate confusion from Earth’s hemispheres … Debate suppression makes a skeptic of PayPal founder
EL NIÑO, CLOUDS, IMPLICATED IN WARMING SINCE THE 1950s
James Cook University physicist John McLean has found a strong relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation, cloud formation and decline, and temperature anomalies measured by the influential and widely cited HadCRUT 4 datasets from the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia) and Hadley Centre (at the UK Met Office). Since 1950, the temperature pattern described by HadCRUT can be attributed to a shift in the prevailing ENSO conditions, followed by a reduction in total cloud cover and change in the type of clouds formed. McLean’s research, if accurate, shows the climate anomaly (global warming) and the divergence between land and sea temperatures are not primarily the result of carbon dioxide emissions, but rather of natural climate shifts.
SOURCE: Watts Up With That
RECORD TEMPERATURES CONFOUND ALARMIST CLAIMS
While satellite measurements show no appreciable warming for the past 18 years, ground-based measurements show warming – but it is modest and significantly lower than climate model projections. Environmental scientist Paul Knappenberger points out climate models persistently overstate the amount of warming measured by ground-based instruments. For instance, while global warming alarmists cite data showing average global temperature so far this year is a few hundredths of a degree higher than the previous record, they downplay the fact this temperature is more than two-tenths of a degree (about 10 times as much) less than the temperature predicted by computer models.
SOURCE: The Daily Caller
COMPANIES SHOULD FIGHT ALARMISTS DEMANDS
Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, writes companies should not cave into environmental extremists’ demands to end their relationships with companies in the fossil fuel industry or organizations such as the American Legislative Exchange Council that remain skeptical of the theory humans are causing catastrophic global warming. Because climate change is a big issue and solutions remain elusive, she writes, free and open debate is warranted and companies and organizations should be open to the debate and even join in.
SOURCE: The Washington Post
CLIMATE CONFUSION FROM EARTH’S HEMISPHERES
Using new, comprehensive datasets, the authors of this study find the internal dynamics and variability of Earth’s climate are more important in driving the climate system than external forcings such as human carbon dioxide emissions. Because climate models misunderstand the relative influence of internal versus external climate drivers on decadal and century time scales, they overestimate the influence of external factors. In addition, because Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions show a stronger correlation to external forcings than Southern Hemisphere data, Northern Hemisphere data are unrepresentative of Earth’s climate system as a whole.
SOURCE: Climate Change Reconsidered
DEBATE SUPPRESSION MAKES A SKEPTIC OF PAYPAL FOUNDER
Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, is skeptical of the alarmist theory humans are causing catastrophic global warming because so many people and organizations refuse to participate in or even allow a debate on the subject. Speaking on The Glenn Beck Program, Thiel said, “Whenever you can’t have a debate, I often think that’s evidence that there’s a problem. When people use the word ‘science,’ it’s often a tell, like in poker, that you’re bluffing. It’s like we have ‘social science’ and we have ‘political science,’ [but] we don’t call it ‘physical science’ or ‘chemical science.’ We just call them physics and chemistry.”
SOURCE: The Blaze