Only 28% of likely voters think Biden should run for president in 2024; 61% say “no”
49% of Democrats want Biden to run for a second term, including just 26% of all women
55% of likely voters disapprove of President Biden
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (May 5, 2022) – Likely voters from both parties, including a majority of Democrats, want Joe Biden to be a one-term president. And two leading Republican candidates—former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—would beat Biden handily if the election were held today.
A new poll by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports of 1,004 likely voters found that 61% do not want Biden to run for president in 2024, with 11% unsure. Eighty-five percent of Republicans, 35% of Democrats, and 65% of Independents don’t want Biden to run— the latter data point indicating Biden has lost the support of much of the moderate base he attracted to win the 2020 presidential election over Trump. Among likely Democratic voters, less than a majority want him to run for re-election in 2024.
The poll was conducted from April 28 to May 2. Among those surveyed in the poll, 33% were Republicans, 35% were Democrats, and 32% were Independents; 48% were men, 52% were women; 67% were white, 13% were black, 13% were Hispanic, and 7% identified as “other.”
See the poll questions and the crosstabs here [an Excel document].
Favorability Ratings Poor for Biden
Biden’s favorability ratings reflect similar distaste for his administration’s policies. Only 25% of likely voters hold a “very favorable” impression of Biden, with 17% responding “somewhat favorable.” Eighty-seven percent of Republicans and 59% of Independents hold unfavorable views, along with 20% of Democrats. Overall, 44% of likely voters selected “very unfavorable.”
While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 43% of Hispanic voters share that favorable opinion. Among women, a key part of Biden’s winning coalition in 2020, just 43% have a favorable opinion while 53% have an unfavorable opinion.
Potential Presidential Matchups
Two leading Republican challengers in the 2024 election currently hold huge leads over President Biden. In a hypothetical matchup held today between Trump and Biden, 50% of voters chose Trump, compared to only 36% for Biden. Looking at the degree of intra-party support for each candidate, 89% of Republicans support Trump, and 73% of Democrats support Biden.
Forty-eight percent of Independents support Trump, compared to just 27% for Biden, with 18% preferring “someone else.” Support for Trump is similarly robust across many demographics, with 48% of women, 44% of Hispanics, and 50% of college-educated voters supporting Trump compared to 36%, 36%, and 37% for Biden, respectively.
Biden also fares poorly when pitted against DeSantis. The Florida governor is preferred by voters over Biden 46% to 35%, with similar demographic splits to the Trump matchup. DeSantis enjoys the support of 80% of Republican voters in a race against Biden, while 69% of Democrat voters support Biden.
Biden Unpopular Among Many Demographics for Re-election
Against either prospective Republican presidential candidate, Biden did not gain majority support for re-election among likely voters overall in any racial, gender, or economic demographic. The highest support Biden received was among 40% of voters who earn more than $200,000 a year and want him to run again.
While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election. Among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election.
Women voters—a key to Biden’s 2020 victory—have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.
The Heartland Institute is a national nonprofit organization founded in 1984 and headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems.
If you’d like to interview a Heartland Institute expert on this topic or other topics, please contact Justin Haskins, the director of Heartland’s Socialism Research Center and primary author of the Heartland/Rasmussen survey, at [email protected], or contact Vice President and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at [email protected]. You can also call/text Jim at 312-731-9364.
National Survey of 1,004 Likely Voters on Support for Biden, Trump, DeSantis
Conducted April 28 – May 2, 2022
By The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Joe Biden?
25% – very favorable
17% – somewhat favorable
11% – somewhat unfavorable
44% – very unfavorable
3% – not sure
Do you think Joe Biden should run for a second term as president in 2024?
28% – yes
61% – no
11% – not sure
If the next U.S. presidential election were held today, and President Joe Biden were running against former President Donald Trump, who would you be most likely to vote for?
36% – Joe Biden
50% – Donald Trump
9% – someone else
2% – you wouldn’t vote
2% – not sure
If the next U.S. presidential election were held today, and President Joe Biden were running against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who would you be most likely to vote for?
35% – Joe Biden
46% – Ron DeSantis
11% – someone else
2% – you wouldn’t vote
6% – not sure
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence