Republicans Vow to Assert Their Authority over Obama Climate Commitments

Biologist and oceanographer Alan Longhurst has written a powerful review of the scientific literature surrounding the question of humankind’s influence on climate. Longhurst concludes, among other things:

the global archives of surface air temperature measurements are unreliable estimators of the consequences of atmospheric CO2 contamination, because they are already themselves contaminated by the effects of deforestation, land use change, urbanization and the release of industrial particulates into the lower atmosphere; users of these data are not able to judge the consequences of the adjustments that have been made to the original observations of surface air temperature …; surface air temperatures respond to cyclical changes within the Sun, and to the effect of changing orbital configurations in the solar system; the evidence for an intensification of extreme weather events and, in particular, tropical cyclones is very weak and is largely due to the progressively increasing reliability and coverage of weather monitoring …; the recent melting of arctic ice cover over larger areas than 20 years ago in summer is not a unique event, but is a recurrence of past episodes and is the result of cyclically variable transport of heat in warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic basin through the Norwegian Sea.

Longhurst warns against dramatic actions to fight human-caused global warming based on the oft repeated claim “the science is settled,” stating, “The science of climate change – like many other complex fields in the earth sciences – does not function so that at some point in time one can say ‘now, the science is settled:’ there are always uncertainties and alternative explanations for observations.”

Concern about climate change is relatively low in the United States and Europe according to a 40-nation Pew Research Center survey conducted in spring 2015. Just 42 percent of Europeans and Americans report being very concerned about climate change. The Pew poll found Europeans are more concerned about the Islamic State (ISIS) and tensions between Russia and its neighbors than other issues, including climate. Americans view ISIS and Iran’s nuclear program as the most critical international threats. The only global issue raising less concern in the U.S. than climate change is territorial disputes between China and its neighbors. Consistent with previous polls, Middle Easterners are the least likely to say they are very concerned about global climate change with a median of less than a third (35 percent) saying it is a serious concern.

Contrary to what has been reported recently by the press, Arctic ice has not begun to decline again; rather, it continues to rebound. While the press routinely reported sea ice extent in 2015 had reached the “fourth lowest minimum in history,” data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) show sea ice extent in 2015 was merely middle-of-the-pack: Over the past decade, four years had a lower minimum and five had a higher minimum. The data show, on average, Arctic sea ice has grown relatively steadily over the decade.

While sea ice extent expands and contracts a great deal seasonally, with September having the annual low extent and March reporting the annual high, the year-to-year annual average variation of sea ice extent – the amount of ice recorded each day of the year averaged over the year – has varied only approximately plus or minus 4 percent over the decade. In 2006, the average sea ice extent was 10.667 million kilometers squared (M km2). Based on the year-to-date data, 2015 will have the highest average sea ice extent for the decade, at 11.263 M km2. According to NSIDC data, every year since 2011 the average annual Arctic sea ice extent has exceeded the 2006 average, with only two years since 2006 falling below the 2006 average.

New research has emerged showing the world’s oceans are cooling the planet by emitting vast amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the atmosphere. These VOCs are not presently accounted for by climate models and may explain in part or in whole the growing gap between the temperatures predicted by the models and those actually measured by satellites, weather balloons, and surface temperature stations.

The VOC isoprene, which like all VOCs tends to cool the planet, has long been known to be produced by plants and trees on land and plankton in the sea. Now, atmospheric chemists from France and Germany have discovered huge amounts of isoprene are also produced in the “microlayer” at the top of the ocean by sunlight acting directly on floating chemicals – no life being necessary. Global models presently assume total emissions of isoprene from all life-form sources – trees, plants, plankton – of around 1.9 megatons per year. The new research shows “abiotic” processes occurring in the oceans release as much as 3.5 megatons on their own.

Climate models consistently fail to accurately track actual temperature measurements. Satellites provide the most rigorous, comprehensive data on global temperatures, closely corresponding to four sets of direct temperature measurements from weather balloons. While the satellite and weather balloon measurements largely agree, there is a wide disparity between the measured temperatures and model projections – a disparity that is increasing over time.

Satellites and weather balloon data show no upward trend in temperatures for nearly 20 years, despite a more than 5 percent increase atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Ken Haapala, executive vice president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, points out, “Ironically, the ‘gap’ between models and observations grew wider, as successive Assessment Reports (AR) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed increasing certainty in the existence of dangerous carbon dioxide caused warming: namely, greater than 50% [AR2 1996], greater than 66% [AR3 2001], greater than 90% [AR4 2007], and greater than 95% [AR5 2013].”