Study: No Increase in Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones

Published February 7, 2011

A recently published study in the peer-reviewed Journal of Climate shows tropical cyclone activity is not increasing in the southeast Indian Ocean basin. The findings present another example of real-world data contradicting theoretical contentions asserted by global warming alarmists.

Kevin Goebbert, assistant professor at the Valparaiso University Department of Geography and Meteorology, and Lance Leslie, research professor at the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, examined interannual tropical cyclone (TC) variability for the northwest Australian sub-basin of the southeast Indian Ocean. Analyzing 13 tropical cyclone metrics from 1970 through 2008, with an emphasis on annual tropical cyclone frequencies and total tropical cyclone days, the authors found “no significant linear trends in either mean annual TC frequencies or TC days.”

“Notably, all 13 variability metrics show no trends over the 39-yr period,” the study reported.

The authors additionally reported “no trend in the number of intense TCs for the [northwest Australian] sub-basin.”

The study, Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones, is available online at

Craig D. Idso, Ph.D. ([email protected]), is lead author of Climate Change Reconsidered, published by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). An earlier version of this article appeared on the NIPCC Web site. Subscriptions to the NIPCC email distribution list are free of charge and can be ordered at