Research & Commentary: New Analysis Shows Massive Decline in Permian Basin Methane Emissions Over Last Two Years

Published September 22, 2025

A new analysis by S&P Global has found that methane emissions in the Permian Basin have been significantly reduced over the last two years thanks to voluntary emission reduction efforts from the oil and gas industries.

The Permian Basin in West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico is the highest-producing oil field in the United States and one of the largest in the world. In 2024, it was responsible for almost half of all U.S. oil production and 22 percent of U.S. natural gas production. 

According to S&P Global, methane emissions in the Permian Basin have declined by more than 55.2 billion cubic feet (BCF) since 2022, a reduction of over 50 percent. From 2023 to 2024, absolute methane emissions decreased by 21.3 BCF, a 22 percent decrease, while methane emissions intensity also dropped 29 percent.

The decline in absolute methane emissions since 2022 is equivalent to 28.8 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide emissions avoided. S&P notes this is the equivalent of removing emissions from the entire country of Lithuania, or is “15% higher than the emissions avoided by all electric vehicles sold in the US and EU during the same period,” or “greater than the greenhouse gas emissions from cooling and heating all the homes in California.”

“The analysis attributes the continued breadth and depth of the emissions decline to ongoing improvements in equipment as well as increasing deployment of new technologies—from AI-driven analysis of operational data to on-the-ground sensors, aircraft overflights and satellites—that make it possible to detect leaks with greater speed and accuracy,” said S&P in an accompanying press release.

“Methane emissions management is being increasingly normalized as part of field operations. It’s becoming a standard and accepted part of the field staff’s responsibilities,” said Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Global Upstream, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “At the same time, oilfield service manufacturers are now producing equipment that includes emissions reduction as an important feature, and operators are increasingly utilizing AI and machine learning to not only ‘find and fix’ but ‘predict and prevent’ emissions.”

This is not the only analysis this year to show a steady decline in methane emissions from the oil and gas industries. The 2024 annual progress report of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI)—a coalition of 12 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies including Aramco, British Petroleum, Chevron, CNPC, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Occidental, Petrobras, Repsol, Shell, and TotalEnergies—shows its members have cut their upstream methane emissions by 55 percent and reduced upstream greenhouse gas emissions from flaring by 47 percent.

“Flaring” in oil and gas development refers to the controlled burning of natural gas that cannot be processed or sold. This occurs at oil production sites where gas is extracted along with oil, but it is not economically viable to capture and transport that gas to market. Flaring produces carbon dioxide and smaller amounts of pollutants like methane and nitrogen oxides.

“Flaring intensity” refers to the amount of gas being flared relative to the volume of oil being produced, or to the overall level of production activity. It is a metric used to assess how much gas is being wasted through flaring and to gauge the efficiency and environmental impact of the flaring practices at a given site.

OGCI members also lowered their upstream carbon dioxide intensity by 21 percent since 2017, with an analogous total greenhouse gas emissions decrease of 19 percent. OGCI members were responsible for 26 percent of global oil and gas output in 2023.

Meanwhile, the 2024 Climate Report of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA), a 27-member trade organization representing the vast majority of the interstate natural gas transmission pipeline companies in the United States and Canada, shows a 14 percent decrease in methane emissions intensity from their members between 2021 and 2022, with a 6 percent decrease in overall methane emissions.

These two industry studies mirror the findings of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recently released 2023 data from its Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), which indicate a 44 percent drop in methane emissions overall from 2011. This includes a 32 percent drop in methane emissions in the Permian Basin between 2019 and 2023.

EPA found similar conclusions in a report released in conjunction with the Clean Air Task Force in June, showing a 37 percent overall decline in methane emissions from 2015 to 2022. Additionally, the 2025 annual report of The Environmental Partnership, a voluntary collective of oil and gas companies “committed to continuously improving the industry’s environmental performance,” found that its members—who are responsible for nearly 65 percent of U.S. onshore oil and natural gas production—have decreased their flare volumes by 75 percent since 2019.

The oil and natural gas deposits found throughout the United States are abundant, affordable, and environmentally safe. Moreover, they can ensure the United States is the world’s largest energy producer well beyond the 21st century. Therefore, policymakers should refrain from placing unnecessary burdens on the natural gas and oil industries which positively impact state economies and are committed to safe, environmentally responsible extraction, as these reports clearly demonstrate.

The following documents provide more information about fossil fuels.

Debunking Four Persistent Myths about Hydraulic Fracturing
https://heartland.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Oct-23-FrackingMyths.pdf
This Heartland Institute Policy Brief by Policy Analyst Timothy Benson and Research Fellow Linnea Lueken outlines the basic elements of the fracking process and refutes the four most widespread fracking myths, providing lawmakers and the public with the research and data they need to make informed decisions about hydraulic fracturing.

Impacts of the Natural Gas and Oil Industry on the U.S. Economy in 2019
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/American-Energy/PwC/API-PWC-Economic-Impact-Report.pdf
This study, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers and commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute, shows that the natural gas and oil industry supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2019, produced $892 billion in labor income, and had a nationwide economic impact of nearly $1.7 trillion. The study also shows the natural gas and oil industry has had widespread impacts in each of the 50 states.

America’s Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing for Natural Gas and Oil Development
https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Hydraulic-Fracturing/2020/fracking-ban-study-americas-progress-at-risk.pdf
The study from the American Petroleum Institute (conducted by economic modeling firm OnLocation) warns that banning federal leasing and fracking on public and private lands, which some presidential candidates have proposed, would cost up to 7.5 million American jobs in 2022 alone, lead to a cumulative GDP loss of $7.1 trillion by 2030, slash household incomes by $5,400 annually, increase household energy costs by more than $600 per year, and reduce farm incomes by 43 percent due to higher energy costs. If a ban is enacted, the U.S. would flip from being a net exporter of oil and petroleum products to importing more than 40 percent of supplies by 2030

What If…Hydraulic Fracturing Were Banned? (2020 Edition)
https://www.globalenergyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2019-12/hf_ban_report_final.pdf
This study from the Global Energy Institute at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. Their analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. GDP by $7.1 trillion. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly $1.9 trillion combined. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump for gasoline as oil prices spike to $130 per barrel, while less domestic energy production would also mean less energy security.

The U.S. Leads the World in Clean Air: The Case for Environmental Optimism
https://files.texaspolicy.com/uploads/2018/11/27165514/2018-11-RR-US-Leads-the-World-in-Clean-Air-ACEE-White.pdf
This paper from the Texas Public Policy Foundation examines how the United States achieved robust economic growth while dramatically reducing emissions of air pollutants. The paper states that these achievements should be celebrated as a public policy success story, but instead the prevailing narrative among political and environmental leaders is one of environmental decline that can only be reversed with a more stringent regulatory approach. Instead, the paper urges for the data to be considered and applied to the narrative.

Nothing in this Research & Commentary is intended to influence the passage of legislation, and it does not necessarily represent the views of The Heartland Institute. For further information on this subject, visit Environment & Climate News, The Heartland Institute’s website, and PolicyBot, Heartland’s free online research database.

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