AGW True Believers Debunk NOAA’s Pause-denying Research

U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, is expanding the scope of his investigation into NOAA’s research claiming there has been no hiatus in warming temperatures. He cited the “slow pace and limited scope” of NOAA’s response to the committee’s October 2015 subpoena for documents related to that research. NOAA has provided more than 300 pages of e-mails and other documents produced by political appointees and by NOAA’s director of communications, but the agency refuses to hand over records of its internal scientific deliberations.

In his letter notifying NOAA of the expanded probe Smith writes, “The speed with which NOAA has conducted these searches and produced documents creates the perception that the Agency is deliberately attempting to impede and hinder the Committee’s oversight.” Originally focused on whether NOAA’s research satisfies the high standards required by the 2001 Data Quality Act to “ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information, including statistical information,” the House committee probe now asks to what extent, if any, the Obama administration and NOAA are collaborating to manipulate research in order to push the political agenda of fighting climate change.

NOAA issued a press release touting its “no pause” finding just as EPA launched its controversial Clean Power Plan and as the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris was looming. Were any Obama administration officials communicating with NOAA about the substance or timing of the study and press statements prior to issuing them? Smith hopes to find out.

“It’s perfectly reasonable for the committee to have oversight over any sort of political influence over the science,” the journal Nature quotes Michael Halpern, program manager for the UCS Center for Science and Democracy, as saying.

The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded a $40 million grant to Southern Co., which co-owns and operates six nuclear reactors facilities in Alabama and Georgia, to develop Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). The full $40 million is not guaranteed but rather will be paid out over time if DOE is satisfied with the project’s progress at various stages. In an MSR, the nuclear fuel is immediately dissolved in salt and continuously circulated, creating non-stop fission. In contrast to conventional nuclear reactors, which use only about 3 percent of the nuclear fuel, MSRs use almost all of the nuclear material, producing far less spent nuclear fuel. The spent material left over from an MSR is substantially less radioactive than conventional spent nuclear fuel, requiring safe storage for only a few hundred rather than 10,000 years. MSRs have an additional characteristic that promises to prevent Fukushima-style incidents, since the salt in which the fuel is mixed keeps it cool even if the reactor shuts down.

Erich Schneider, an associate professor of nuclear engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers with whom he collaborates, say the safety characteristics of MSRs make them considerably less expensive to build than conventional reactors, resulting in electric power produced at lower costs than even natural gas- fired power. Schneider foresees a day when MSRs would replace natural gas as the dominant partner of variable, intermittent, renewable sources of electricity like wind and solar power, cutting carbon dioxide emissions to near zero from electric power operations.

Danish researcher Björn Lomborg says the commitments countries made in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fall far short of the goal of keeping temperature increases well below 2°C over the next century. Even if carbon dioxide has a direct effect on temperature and all commitments are met, Lomborg calculates the deal’s 2016–2030 carbon-dioxide-cutting promises will reduce temperatures by just 0.05°C by 2100. Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus on Climate project finds the best long-term strategy for reducing the threats of climate change is to end green energy production subsidies for wind and solar power and instead dramatically increase investment in green R&D. In the short term, Lomborg says the world needs to embrace fracking to produce and use more natural gas to generate electricity.

Polar bear researcher Susan Crockford of the University of Victoria, British Columbia, has assembled a list of 10 dire –and failed – polar bear predictions. Despite grim predictions, the global polar bear population appears to be stable or growing with as many as 31,000 bears in existence. Crockford notes, “while polar bears may be negatively affected by declines in sea ice sometime in the future, so far there is no convincing evidence that any unnatural harm has come to them.”

One prediction shown false is polar bears in the Chukchi Sea will be harmed by summer sea ice declines. A recent study of Chukchi bears found them to be fatter and healthier now than they were in the 1980s when there was more ice over longer periods. The bears in the region were also reproducing well. There have been no confirmed reports of polar bear drowning deaths since the single event in 2004 that sparked concern for bears, although two of the lowest extents of summer sea ice occurred in 2007 and 2012. Crockford also disproves the prediction summer sea ice would consistently and rapidly decline as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise. Carbon dioxide levels have risen but there has been no declining trend in sea ice in the arctic region since 2007.

Crockford concludes, “Polar bears are not fragile canaries in an Arctic climate-change coal mine but resilient and adaptable predators remarkably suited to their highly variable habitat.”