Leaked IPCC Graph Shows Models Predicting Too Much Warming

Published January 17, 2013

United Nations officials have repeatedly predicted more warming than has occurred in the real world, according to a leaked copy of a draft United Nations climate report. 

Warming Predictions in Doubt

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is preparing to issue its Fifth Assessment Report in 2013. An IPCC contributor leaked a draft copy of the Report to the media in mid-December. The Report contains a dramatic chart showing that all preceding IPCC reports predicted more warming than has occurred in the real world. The finding casts severe doubt on oft-repeated predictions of 2.4 to 3.0 degrees Celsius of warming during the 21st century.

IPCC officials “have way over-estimated the extent of Global Warming since the IPCC first started issuing Assessment Reports in 1990, and continuing through the fourth report issued in 2007,” Ph.D. scientist Ira Glickstein wrote in a guest post on meteorologist Anthony Watt’s Web site, Watts Up With That? “When actual observations over a period of up to 22 years substantially contradict predictions based on a given climate theory, that theory must be greatly modified or completely discarded.

“Although the analysts and modelers claimed their predictions were 90% certain, it is now clear they were far from that mark with each and every prediction.… The IPCC has issued four reports, so, given 90% certainty for each report, there should be only one chance in 10,000 (ten times ten times ten times ten) that they got it wrong four times in a row. But they did!” Glickstein explained.

Will IPCC Hide the Chart?

Climate scientist Patrick Michaels warned IPCC may remove the telltale chart from its final report in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to answer for its repeated failed predictions.

“I’ll suggest the same vigilance concerning this remarkable chart showing the failure of one of the UN’s most-cited series of forecasts, and I’ll predict that it does not see the light of day when the final report is released next year,” Michaels said.

Alyssa Carducci ([email protected]) writes from Tampa, Florida.