Climate Change Weekly #99
The U.K. Guardian and dozens of additional media outlets are hyping a claim this week that rapidly receding Arctic sea ice will trigger a methane-release catastrophe within just a few years. While the media predictably tries to scare the pants off of people who don’t closely follow the scientific debate, skeptics, mainstream warmists, and even prominent global warming alarmists agree the predictions of a methane catastrophe are over the top and ridiculous.
A new paper in the journal Nature claims summertime Arctic sea ice could disappear within a couple of years, triggering a chain of events that will release catastrophic amounts of frozen and trapped methane into the atmosphere. The warming effects of the methane release, the Nature paper claims, will send the planet over a tipping point for immediate, rapid, and catastrophic global warming.
Judith Curry, who generally agrees with the global warming narrative provided by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted on her Climate Etc. Web site that the predicted methane apocalypse “rests on two assumptions: (1) the ‘spiral of death’ loss of Arctic sea ice and (2) connection of the sea ice loss to a massive release of methane hydrates into the atmosphere on the time scale of a decade. Each of these assumptions is highly implausible, based upon my understanding; the combination of these two assumptions into a single scenario seems impossible to me.”
Even high-profile global warming extremists are calling B.S. on the methane apocalypse claims. Gavin Schmidt, for example, noted that even under a “worst case” scenario, methane “will probably not be a huge player in climate change in the coming century.”
IN THIS ISSUE
NOAA scientists report 2012 heat wave mostly natural … Alarmists concede no increase in global temperature volatility … Greenland data show temperatures were warmer in recent past … Coral expand range in response to warming
NOAA SCIENTISTS REPORT 2012 HEAT WAVE MOSTLY NATURAL
Record-setting warm temperatures in the United States during early 2012 were mostly the result of natural weather events and had little connection with global warming, a team of scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Colorado report in a new peer-reviewed paper. “This long-term regional warming is an order-of-magnitude smaller than temperature anomalies observed during the event, indicating that most of the extreme warmth must be explained by other factors. Several lines of evidence strongly implicate natural variations as the primary cause for the extreme event,” the scientists explained.
ALARMISTS CONCEDE NO INCREASE IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VOLATILITY
There has been no recent increase in global temperature volatility, a team of scientists including disgraced Climategate central figure Phil Jones acknowledge in a newly published peer-reviewed study. The scientists report temperature volatility has increased in some regions and decreased in others. While the media focuses on regions where volatility has increased, the planet as a whole is experiencing no increase in temperature volatility. Moreover, the study predicted temperature volatility will decrease during the course of the twenty-first century.
SOURCE: Science Daily
GREENLAND DATA SHOW TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER IN RECENT PAST
The warmest temperatures of the present interglacial warm period, which began approximately 10,000 years ago, occurred between 4,000 and 6,000 years ago, scientists report in a new peer-reviewed study. Scientists examined sediment composition in several lakes near the edge of the Greenland ice sheet and discovered local summer temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer during that time period than they are today.
SOURCE: NIPCC Report
CORAL EXPAND RANGE IN RESPONSE TO WARMING
Coral species are successfully expanding their ranges poleward in response to warming temperatures, according to a newly published peer-reviewed study. A team of scientists reported that Mediterranean coral populations analyzed in the study “accomplished a successful northward expansion and may be able to keep pace with the global warming prediction of ~3°C over the next 100 years.”
SOURCE: NIPCC Report
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